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FRES

Fresno State 40 at Nevada 20

NEV
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:42 · Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds, downed at the Nevad 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior+15.6Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:23: Aaron Peck 13 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +8.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:06: Greg Watson 30 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +8.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:06: Don Jackson 14 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo PAT failed) — NEV win probability +8.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q2 0:32: Brian Burrell 1 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +12.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:04: Aaron Peck 26 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +13.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 14:20FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:43FRES 4th & 10 at NEV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:59NEV 4th & 20 at NEV 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:14FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:42FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:09NEV 4th & 7 at FRES 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:08NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 25, down 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:56FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 35, up 15
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:29FRES 4th & 5 at NEV 15, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−9.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:12NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:12FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−4.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:15NEV 4th & 3 at FRES 21, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%−0.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−11.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:54FRES 4th & 5 at NEV 22, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−7.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:05NEV 4th & 23 at NEV 9, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−4.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:51FRES 4th & 17 at NEV 35, up 18
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:25NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 33, down 18
    Close callPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:50FRES 4th & 5 at NEV 25, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:18NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:29FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:56NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:01NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:23FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:06FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:06NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:32FRES Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:04FRES Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:1230% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
69.9%
Marteze Waller run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
69.9%
Brian Burrell run for 11 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
69.9%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
69.8%
Brian Burrell run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
69.8%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 14:20
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+6
69.8%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
69.7%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
69.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
69.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Greg WatsonSimilar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
69.4%
Kody Kroening 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:4170% → 68%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
69.5%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
69.5%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+18
69.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 18 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.8%
Cody Fajardo run for no gain to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
69.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-15
69.7%
Fajardo, Cody pass complete to Gipson, Jarred for no gain to the FRESNOST46, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Brock, Kendall) 15 yards to the NEVADA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 20
OWN 39
0
69.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 20
OWN 39
0
68.4%
Alex Boy punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4131% → 31%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+21
68.8%
Marteze Waller run for 21 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
68.6%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
68.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-6
68.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Rykeem Yates and Ian Seau for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
68.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:1169% → 69%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
68.6%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
69.1%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-7
68.6%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Maurice Poyadue for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 32 Cody Fajardo fumbled, forced by Maurice Poyadue, recovered by FrsSt Tyeler Davison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:2633% → 38%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
66.9%
Josh Harper run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+8
66.8%
Josh Quezada run for 8 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
66.8%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
62.5%
Josh Harper 19 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2964% → 69%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
64.0%
Don Jackson run for 20 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
68.8%
Cody Fajardo 55 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1332% → 32%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.6%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
67.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
67.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
67.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds, downed at the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:3968% → 73%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
67.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 7 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
68.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+1
67.2%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
67.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 7 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
68.4%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
72.8%
Cody Fajardo 60 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 1:3228% → 37%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
71.9%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-2
71.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+15
72.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 15 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
71.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 5 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
70.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Michael LazarusSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+46
71.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 46 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
63.1%
Aaron Peck 13 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2667% → 65%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
66.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
66.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
65.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Brayden Sanchez punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4437% → 46%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
63.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
50
+15
63.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 15 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Michael LazarusSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
62.6%
Brian Burrell run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
54.5%
Greg Watson 30 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12DOWNS
14 plays · 29 yds · 4:5157% → 54%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
56.8%
Fajardo, Cody rush for 6 yards to the NEVADA33, PENALTY NEVADA holding (Evans, Taylor) 10 yards to the NEVADA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+9
54.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
54.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 9 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
54.8%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
56.3%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
56.2%
Cody Fajardo run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
56.4%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+2
56.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
55.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Matt MoenSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-9
53.9%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Karl Mickelsen for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:0551% → 52%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
49.4%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+1
49.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+29
47.8%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Lenny Jones return for 29 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3756% → 64%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
55.9%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
55.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Derron SmithSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
64.2%
Don Jackson 14 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
65.8%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted Karl Mickelsen return for 11 yds to the FrsSt 10 NEVADA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Austin Corbett) to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:1343% → 59%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
57.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
55.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 2 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+14
55.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 14 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
53.3%
Brian Burrell run for 15 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
53.3%
Josh Quezada run for 6 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
53.2%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.5%
Brian Burrell 1 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
45.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
46.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 19 yds Jerico Richardson fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Charles WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:4158% → 72%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
42.2%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cody Wichmann) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 16
50
+8
42.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 8 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
42.0%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+13
41.4%
Josh Quezada run for 13 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
28.0%
Aaron Peck 26 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4033% → 30%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
33.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+6
32.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 6 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+5
30.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
30.3%
Alex Boy punt for 48 yds, downed at the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0773% → 74%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.3%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Greg WatsonSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-3
27.5%
Brian Burrell sacked by Lenny Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+11
27.8%
Brian Burrell run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
25.7%
Garrett Swanson punt for 45 yds , Richy Turner returns for no gain to the Nevad 20 Richy Turner fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Shannon EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1878% → 80%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
22.5%
Greg Watson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
22.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
22.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
20.5%
Kody Kroening 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:0123% → 21%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.5%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
23.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 7 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
23.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
22.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
21.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
21.3%
Alex Boy punt for 53 yds, downed at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:5782% → 84%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
18.3%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+14
18.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 14 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
18.1%
Josh Quezada run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
17.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 17 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
16.1%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
15.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh QuezadaSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
15.5%
Brian Burrell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
15.6%
Brian Burrell run for no gain to the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:4720% → 21%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
20.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 34 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
22.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
21.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
21.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
20.9%
Brent Zuzo 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:1686% → 90%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
14.5%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
13.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+12
13.9%
Brian Burrell run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
12.6%
Josh Quezada run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
10.3%
Josh Quezada run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
9.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+24
9.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 9 yds to the NEVADA 42 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ian Seau) to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
8.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
9.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Duran WorkmanSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+5
9.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 5 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 5
OPP 22
0
9.9%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Jeff CamilliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:4514% → 12%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
13.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
13.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-8
13.0%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Donavon Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 18
OWN 14
-5
12.7%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Wilson) to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 23
OWN 9
+2
12.3%
Alex Boy punt for 38 yds , Derron Smith returns for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:0892% → 92%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
7.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 17 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
7.3%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-11
7.5%
Brian Burrell sacked by Rykeem Yates for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 21
OPP 39
+4
7.4%
Brian Burrell run for 4 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 17
OPP 35
0
8.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 22 yds, downed at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2011% → 9%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
11.1%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
10.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.6%
Cody Fajardo run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
9.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall Brock, broken up by Karl MickelsenSimilar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
8.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
8.9%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:3093% → 95%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
6.8%
Brian Burrell run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
6.4%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the FrsSt 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Brian BurrellSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+15
6.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 15 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+4
5.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 31SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
3.2%
Cody Fajardo rush for loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 32DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:5097% → 98%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
2.8%
Josh Quezada run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+24
2.7%
Josh Quezada run for 24 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
2.2%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 13
50
+5
2.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
2.0%
Burrell, Brian pass incomplete to Harper, Josh, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Favors, Evan) 15 yards to the NEVADA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
1.9%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
1.7%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
1.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
1.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 33DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:172% → 1%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.6%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
1.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
1.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
1.4%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 34END OF GAME
7 plays · 32 yds · 4:0299% → 99%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
1.1%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
0.9%
Josh Quezada run for 7 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
0.9%
T.J. Thomas run for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+12
0.8%
T.J. Thomas run for 12 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.6%
T.J. Thomas run for 3 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
0.6%
T.J. Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.6%
T.J. Thomas run for 3 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:04
Aaron Peck 26 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)
-13.5
TD · Q2 0:32
Brian Burrell 1 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)
-12.2
TD · Q2 2:06
Don Jackson 14 Yd pass from Cody Fajardo (Brent Zuzo PAT failed)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com