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UNLV

UNLV 23 at BYU 42

BYU
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:26 · Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+21.7Home team on offense+14.2Score differential+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:32: Shaquille Murray-Lawrence 68 Yd Run (Jonathan Leiva Kick) — UNLV win probability +5.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 1:23: Paul Lasike 4 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +3.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:42: Paul Lasike 26 Yd pass from Christian Stewart (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:57: Devonte Boyd 40 Yd pass from Jared Lebowitz (Jonathan Leiva Kick) — UNLV win probability +6.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:31: Mitch Mathews 8 Yd pass from Christian Stewart (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +4.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 15
  1. Q1 12:57UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13UNLV 4th & 9 at BYU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00UNLV 4th & 5 at BYU 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:10BYU 4th & 12 at UNLV 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:09UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 36, down 4
    Close callPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:53BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:30BYU 4th & 6 at UNLV 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:23UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 21, down 4
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00UNLV 4th & 4 at BYU 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:10UNLV 4th & 7 at midfield, down 8
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:07UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 42, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:11UNLV 4th & 7 at BYU 15, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:26BYU 4th & 1 at UNLV 43, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:18UNLV 4th & 3 at BYU 35, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:23UNLV 4th & 1 at BYU 45, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−1.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:02UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 42, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:37BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 28, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:56UNLV 4th & 10 at BYU 45, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:45BYU 4th & 7 at UNLV 48, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:22UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 41, down 19
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:05BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 42, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:51UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 22, down 19
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:25BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:18BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:32UNLV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23BYU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:25BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:42BYU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:57UNLV Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:31BYU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:368% → 8%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
92.4%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 5 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
92.3%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+6
92.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 6 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
92.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 7 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
92.0%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
92.0%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
92.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 39 yds, downed at the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3292% → 92%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
91.9%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
91.9%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
91.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+31
91.7%
Scott Arellano punt for 55 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 31 yds to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:268% → 9%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
91.6%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+11
91.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 11 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
91.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-7
91.1%
Blake Decker sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+4
91.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
90.8%
Jonathan Leiva 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 1:3491% → 91%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
90.6%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+13
90.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Ross Apo for 13 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+34
90.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 34 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
90.7%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+11
90.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 11 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
91.1%
Jordan Leslie 30 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:009% → 10%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
90.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
90.6%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+16
90.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 16 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
90.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
90.0%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
89.9%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
90.1%
Logan Yunker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:3590% → 89%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
90.1%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+9
90.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 9 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
89.9%
Christian Stewart sacked by Ryan McAleenan for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+12
89.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 12 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+16
89.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 16 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
89.9%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+17
89.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 17 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
89.7%
Trey Dye run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 12
OPP 38
0
89.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
89.2%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
88.8%
Scott Arellano punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:5411% → 12%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
89.0%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 5Similar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
89.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+9
89.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 9 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+13
88.9%
Blake Decker run for 13 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
88.3%
Blake Decker run for 4 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
88.0%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
87.9%
Blake Decker run for 4 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+3
87.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 46 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for 3 yds to the BYU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0288% → 87%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
88.0%
Christian Stewart run for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
87.6%
Paul Lasike run for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+16
87.0%
Scott Arellano punt for 43 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 16 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0814% → 14%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
86.4%
Marcus Sullivan run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 8
50
0
86.2%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 8
50
+15
86.5%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Harvey Jackson) to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
85.6%
Blake Decker sacked by Graham Rowley for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+32
86.3%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 32 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2588% → 87%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
88.0%
Adam Hine run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
87.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
87.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
87.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 38 yds, downed at the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0113% → 13%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
86.6%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
86.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+11
86.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 11 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
86.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
86.4%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+9
86.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 9 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
86.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4787% → 91%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+48
86.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 48 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
87.5%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
87.4%
Paul Lasike run for 4 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
90.5%
Paul Lasike 8 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2810% → 16%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.8%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
84.3%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence 68 Yd Run (Jonathan Leiva Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2517% → 18%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
83.5%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+9
82.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 9 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
82.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 21 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.2%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
82.0%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
82.2%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 4Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
82.3%
Jonathan Leiva 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:1284% → 90%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
84.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 21 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
85.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 9 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+25
85.6%
Algernon Brown run for 25 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
85.5%
Algernon Brown run for 6 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.1%
Paul Lasike 4 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:0011% → 12%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.6%
Keith Whitely run for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
87.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
88.1%
Keith Whitely run for 10 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
87.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 7
50
0
87.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Marcus SullivanSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 7
50
0
88.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 26 yds, downed at the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
89.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 1:2089% → 93%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
89.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 14 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
89.3%
Jordan Leslie run for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+17
88.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 17 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
90.1%
Paul Lasike run for 39 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
93.3%
Devin Mahina 15 Yd pass from Christian Stewart (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:588% → 8%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
92.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 6 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
91.7%
Marcus Sullivan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
92.0%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-5
92.4%
Logan Yunker punt for 35 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 18 Devon Blackmon fumbled, recovered by UNLV Kimble JensenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:539% → 10%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.0%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
91.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
91.5%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
90.2%
Jonathan Leiva 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2492% → 92%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.2%
Paul Lasike run for no gain to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-13
92.2%
Christian Stewart sacked by Peni Vea for a loss of 13 yards to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 23
OWN 35
+22
91.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 22 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-2
91.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4210% → 10%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
90.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+11
90.0%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Kendal Keys for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
89.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
89.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
88.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 5 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+2
89.6%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 2 yds to the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:2891% → 97%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.1%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
91.2%
Paul Lasike run for 9 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+7
91.4%
Adam Hine run for 7 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+25
91.8%
Christian Stewart run for 25 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
96.9%
Paul Lasike 26 Yd pass from Christian Stewart (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:185% → 11%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
95.1%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 5 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
95.2%
Jared Lebowitz run for 2 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.1%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
95.1%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
95.2%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Devante Davis for 9 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
95.1%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-13
95.2%
Jared Lebowitz sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 13 yards to the BYU 44 UNLV Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 23
OWN 44
+4
95.6%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+12
95.5%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Keith Whitely for 12 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+40
88.7%
Devonte Boyd 40 Yd pass from Jared Lebowitz (Jonathan Leiva Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:1493% → 97%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+35
92.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 35 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
93.2%
UNLV Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.4%
Mitch Mathews 8 Yd pass from Christian Stewart (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:134% → 3%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.6%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
96.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+7
96.5%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Keith Whitely for 7 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.4%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for no gain to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
96.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
96.5%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
96.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Juergens at the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
98.3%
Adam Hine run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-5
98.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 16
OWN 18
-5
98.3%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 13Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 21
OWN 13
+15
98.3%
Christian Stewart run for 15 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Scott Arellano punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:343% → 3%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
97.1%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Keith Whitely for 8 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
97.0%
Jared Lebowitz run for 7 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.1%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
97.1%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
97.2%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
97.2%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 42 yds, downed at the BYU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
99.2%
Adam Hine run for 5 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+25
99.2%
Adam Hine run for 25 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
99.2%
Christian Stewart run for 16 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.3%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
99.3%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
99.3%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
99.2%
Scott Arellano punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jay Mitchell at the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 30FUMBLE
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:043% → 2%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.3%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+13
97.3%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 13 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
97.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
97.1%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+7
97.2%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Maika Mataele for 7 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-2
98.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 33 yds , Mitchell Juergens returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 24 Mitchell Juergens fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.6%
Nate Carter run for 8 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
99.6%
Nate Carter run for 5 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.6%
Nate Carter run for 7 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-2
99.6%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Scott Arellano punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.6%
Keith Whitely run for 6 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
98.6%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the UNLV 31 UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
98.7%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
98.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
98.7%
Logan Yunker punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Juergens at the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 33END OF GAME
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.7%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
99.7%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-15
99.7%
BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+31
99.7%
Nate Carter run for 31 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:57
Devonte Boyd 40 Yd pass from Jared Lebowitz (Jonathan Leiva Kick)
-6.8
TD · Q2 5:32
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence 68 Yd Run (Jonathan Leiva Kick)
-5.5
TD · Q3 5:42
Paul Lasike 26 Yd pass from Christian Stewart (Trevor Samson Kick)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com