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NEV

Nevada 38 at Air Force 45

AF
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:00 · Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 122Home team on offense+2.7Pregame prior−2.9Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score differential−0.9Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:03: Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 25 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +21.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:26: Don Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +25.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:03: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 21 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +39.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:13: Kale Pearson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +39.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:12: Brent Zuzo 22 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +37.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:45NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33AF 4th & 9 at AF 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:19NEV 4th & 5 at AF 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:46AF 4th & 9 at NEV 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:59AF 4th & 1 at NEV 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:30NEV 4th & 1 at AF 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−10.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 2 at AF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−3.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:57NEV 4th & 1 at AF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−5.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:00AF 4th & 1 at NEV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−3.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−11.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:23AF 4th & 3 at NEV 6, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%−3.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−24.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:23NEV 4th & 1 at AF 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−2.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−15.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:29AF 4th & 14 at AF 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−10.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:12NEV 4th & 1 at AF 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−15.2
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−31.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:46AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:18NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:01AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:30NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:08AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:59NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:03AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:26NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:03NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:13AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1443% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
42.5%
Shayne Davern run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.5%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
42.5%
Kale Pearson run for 9 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
42.5%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
42.5%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
42.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+10
42.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
42.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 19 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
42.5%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+13
42.5%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (13 Yards) to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
42.5%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
42.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Nevad 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-10
42.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
46.6%
Don Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
46.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
46.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
46.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
46.6%
Alex Boy punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
47.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
47.5%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
47.2%
Kale Pearson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
46.9%
Will Conant punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
47.5%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
48.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+4
48.2%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+11
48.4%
Cody Fajardo run for 11 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
48.1%
Alex Boy punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
49.4%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+18
49.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Marcus Hendricks for 18 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
49.9%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
50.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
50.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+3
49.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+8
49.7%
Kale Pearson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
49.9%
Kale Pearson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
49.1%
Will Conant punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:5549% → 56%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
51.2%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
51.3%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+53
51.6%
Cody Fajardo run for 53 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
49.3%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+25
43.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 25 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 5:1047% → 59%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
47.0%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 16
-1
46.9%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+14
46.1%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (14 Yards) to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
48.5%
Shayne Davern run for 15 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
49.7%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+16
49.8%
Kale Pearson run for 16 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
50.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 21 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
50.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
50.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
50.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
49.3%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
50.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
50.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.8%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:3143% → 54%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.0%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 10 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
56.5%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
55.3%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
56.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 6 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
55.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
54.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+7
55.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
54.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
54.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+12
55.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
53.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
53.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+10
55.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 10 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
53.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 13 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
53.7%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.7%
James Butler run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
54.8%
Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.7%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 1:1653% → 65%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Evan FavorsSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
52.5%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+13
52.6%
Kale Pearson run for 13 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
54.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+7
55.0%
Kale Pearson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
56.3%
Kale Pearson run for 21 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
56.3%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
56.6%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
64.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0138% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 10 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
61.1%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
61.0%
Don Jackson run for 12 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.3%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
60.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
58.9%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+2
60.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
58.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Christian SpearsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
59.0%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+9
60.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 9 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
43.6%
Don Jackson run for 32 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
45.2%
Nate McLaurin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
45.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
45.3%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-1
46.9%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:5755% → 76%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
55.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
55.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
56.5%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
56.3%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+4
56.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
56.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
57.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Shayne Davern for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
56.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 5 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
54.3%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
76.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 25 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3331% → 57%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.1%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
66.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
68.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 11 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
66.1%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-5
68.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
68.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+24
69.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 24 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
65.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
62.8%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
63.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Brayden Sanchez for 7 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+17
68.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 17 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.2%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:0355% → 70%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+33
54.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 33 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
59.4%
Shayne Davern run for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
60.7%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
60.7%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-5
60.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Jalen Robinette) to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+14
58.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
60.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Matt Galland, broken up by Jordan DobrichSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
60.7%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
60.7%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-2
58.8%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
69.6%
Will Conant 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2036% → 79%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.5%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
63.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Justin DeCoud) to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
61.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 1
50
+18
58.3%
Don Jackson run for 18 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
57.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
57.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+8
59.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 8 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
60.8%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
21.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 21 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:4437% → 83%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
36.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+17
39.9%
Kale Pearson run for 17 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
41.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
43.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+10
40.5%
Devin Rushing run for 10 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
43.3%
Devin Rushing run for 2 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
82.5%
Kale Pearson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0033% → 40%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
65.3%
Don Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
61.8%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 6 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
59.5%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
60.3%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
60.4%
Cody Fajardo pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:1786% → 87%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.8%
Devin Rushing run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
86.9%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
86.1%
Kale Pearson sacked by Brock Hekking and Lenny Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+16
86.6%
Will Conant punt for 43 yds , Richy Turner returns for 16 yds to the AFA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:0120% → 55%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
80.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 34 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
77.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
77.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Justin DeCoudSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+5
79.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+22
44.6%
Brent Zuzo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1261% → 65%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
61.0%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 18 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+61
65.0%
Will Conant 61 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
64.7%
Devin Rushing run for 9 yds to the Nevad 8 Devin Rushing fumbled, forced by Rykeem Yates, recovered by AFA Andrew RuechelSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+4
64.7%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
64.7%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.3%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 9%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
80.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 5 yds to the AFA 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-2
79.3%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 22Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
86.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy Turner, broken up by Alex HansenSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
0
91.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:03
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 21 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
-39.7
TD · Q4 4:13
Kale Pearson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+39.2
FG · Q4 0:12
Brent Zuzo 22 yd FG GOOD
-37.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com