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IDHO

Idaho 21 at San Diego State 35

SDSU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreIDHO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:57 · Austin Rehkow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+21.2Home team on offense+6.5Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:45: Chad Chalich run for 13 yds for a TD (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +4.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:57: Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 58 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:50: Chase Price run for 5 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:35: Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 51 yds for a TD (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +10.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:32: Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 28 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5IDHO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 10:45SDSU 4th & 10 at IDHO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 7:49IDHO 4th & 9 at IDHO 42, tied
    Close callWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:06SDSU 4th & 5 at IDHO 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:41IDHO 4th & 8 at SDSU 39, tied
    Close callWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:51SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:33IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.8
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:57IDHO 4th & 19 at IDHO 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 41, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:32IDHO 4th & 9 at SDSU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:08SDSU 4th & 11 at IDHO 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5IDHO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:28SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:00IDHO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:45IDHO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:57SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:50SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:35IDHO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:32SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:3292% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
91.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
91.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
91.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 10 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
91.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the Idaho 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+15
91.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 15 yds to the Idaho 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the Idaho 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
91.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
91.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 24 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:289% → 12%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.0%
Jerrel Brown run for 8 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
91.0%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the Idaho 34Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
91.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob Sannon, PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the IDAHO46, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
91.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Joshua McCain for 6 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-1
90.9%
Jerrel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+7
90.9%
Chad Chalich run for 7 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
90.9%
Jerrel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+20
90.3%
Chad Chalich run for 20 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
90.0%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+13
90.1%
Chad Chalich run for 13 yds to the SDSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
90.0%
Jerrel Brown run for 3 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
90.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+5
90.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3389% → 90%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
89.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 16 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
89.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 19 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
89.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
89.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+13
89.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 13 yds to the Idaho 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
89.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the Idaho 14Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+5
89.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 5 yds to the Idaho 9Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+4
89.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Idaho 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 4TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:4211% → 17%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
89.4%
Jerrel Brown run for 3 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
89.3%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Deon Watson for no gain to the Idaho 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+13
89.5%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 13 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
89.0%
Chad Chalich run for 8 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
88.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
88.7%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
88.7%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+16
88.9%
Chad Chalich run for 16 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
88.4%
Jerrel Brown run for 4 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
87.5%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
87.9%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 7 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
87.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
83.4%
Chad Chalich run for 13 yds for a TD (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
86.4%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+12
86.7%
Chase Price run for 12 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
86.8%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Quayshawne Buckley for a loss of 6 yards to the Idaho 48Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+7
86.3%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the Idaho 41Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-1
86.6%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Marc Millan and Kevin Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 42Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
85.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
83.0%
Jerrel Brown run for 8 yds to the Idaho 28Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
82.4%
Chad Chalich run for 3 yds to the Idaho 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
82.8%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the Idaho 32Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+9
82.9%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 9 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.0%
Jerrel Brown run for no gain to the Idaho 41Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
82.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the Idaho 42Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
82.5%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+4
83.3%
Austin Rehkow run for 4 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
85.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Idaho 40Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-1
85.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 41Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
84.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
84.0%
Joel Alesi punt for 25 yds, downed at the Idaho 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 3:0719% → 22%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
80.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
80.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+15
81.0%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete, PENALTY SDSU personal foul 15 yards to the IDAHO38, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
79.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 8 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
79.1%
Jerrel Brown run for 2 yds to the Idaho 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
79.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 8
50
+1
78.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+8
79.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 8 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
78.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
75.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
76.0%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
77.6%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCain, broken up by Jake FelySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-9
81.7%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Quayshawne Buckley for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the Idaho 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
77.0%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Richard MontgomerySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
77.9%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCain, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
78.7%
Austin Rehkow punt for 40 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1580% → 77%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
79.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
77.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd Mills SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 37
-3
76.6%
Joel Alesi punt for 45 yds , David Ungerer returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
75.3%
Jerrel Brown run for 1 yd to the Idaho 16Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
75.6%
Jerrel Brown run for 3 yds to the Idaho 19Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+3
76.3%
Joshua McCain run for 3 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
76.9%
Austin Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:5178% → 86%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell Ruffin, broken up by Bradley NjokuSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
77.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 6 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+58
86.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 58 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
84.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
84.4%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-13
85.3%
Chad Chalich sacked by Cody Galea for a loss of 13 yards to the Idaho 13Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
86.1%
Austin Rehkow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:2887% → 93%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell Ruffin, broken up by Joseph SmithSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
86.7%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+19
86.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lloyd Mills for 19 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
87.7%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Quinton Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 48Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+5
86.9%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass complete to PRICE, Chase for 8 yards to the IDAHO40 (Joe Smith), PENALTY IDAHO offside 5 yards to the IDAHO43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+16
87.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 16 yds to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
87.9%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
87.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+17
87.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 17 yds to the Idaho 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.4%
Chase Price run for 5 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:158% → 19%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
92.1%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 9 yards to the IDAHO32 (WHITTAKER, J.J.;LOMAX, Trey), PENALTY IDAHO personal foul 10 yards to the IDAHO13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 20
OWN 13
0
92.2%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 20
OWN 13
0
92.4%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 20
OWN 13
+16
92.5%
Elijhaa Penny rush for 1 yard to the IDAHO14 (MELIFONWU, Fred), PENALTY SDSU face mask 16 yards to the IDAHO29, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
91.6%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+18
91.4%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 18 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
81.3%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 51 yds for a TD (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3586% → 88%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
86.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
87.8%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Marcus Stamps run for no gain to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
87.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 33 yds, downed at the Idaho 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:0016% → 20%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
83.6%
Elijhaa Penny run for 13 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
82.1%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Richard Montgomery for 22 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
80.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+10
80.1%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 10 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
78.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+8
78.3%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 8 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
78.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
78.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-1
80.0%
Jerrel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 14 Jerrel Brown fumbled, forced by Alex Barrett, recovered by SDSt Josh GavertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:2488% → 97%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
88.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+2
88.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
88.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
88.0%
Quinn Kaehler run for 4 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+16
87.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 16 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
89.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
90.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
90.4%
IDAHO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Idaho 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
90.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 3 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
90.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Idaho 28Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+28
97.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 28 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.1%
Chad Chalich pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
94.6%
Elijhaa Penny run for 18 yds to the Idaho 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Chad Chalich pass incomplete to Justin Podrabsky, broken up by Trey LomaxSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
93.7%
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 9 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
93.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
93.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 7 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
92.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-7
93.2%
Matt Linehan sacked by Josh Gavert for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
94.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by J.J. WhittakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:4398% → 99%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+39
97.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 39 yds to the Idaho 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
97.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Idaho 17Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+1
98.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Idaho 16Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-3
98.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 19Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
99.3%
Donny Hageman 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
98.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 5 yards to the IDAHO25 (MUNSON, Calvin), PENALTY IDAHO holding 10 yards to the IDAHO10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+12
98.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 12 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
98.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the IDAHO32, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.6%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
98.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Justin Podrabsky for 6 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Joshua McCainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:35
Chad Chalich pass complete to Joshua McCain for 51 yds for a TD (Austin Rehkow KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q3 9:57
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 58 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)
+9
TD · Q4 5:32
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 28 yds for a TD (Donny Hageman KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com