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SJSU

San José State 24 at Fresno State 38

FRES
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:41 · Brian Burrell punt for 33 yds, downed at the SJSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense+17.3Score differential+7.5Pregame prior+3.2Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:43: Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 86 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:57: Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +10.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:50: Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 18 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +9.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:16: Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 19 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +12.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:48: Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:55SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:57FRES 4th & 2 at SJSU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−8.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:43SJSU 4th & 14 at SJSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:55SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:55SJSU 4th & 4 at FRES 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:09SJSU 4th & 5 at FRES 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:41FRES 4th & 9 at SJSU 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:31SJSU 4th & 4 at FRES 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:25FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:53FRES 4th & 1 at SJSU 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−1.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:47FRES 4th & 9 at SJSU 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:40SJSU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:55FRES 4th & 7 at SJSU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:21FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:30SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:43SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:57FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:50FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:16FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:48SJSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-9
58.5%
GRAY, Joe pass complete to WINSTON, Tyler for 15 yards to the SJ36 (EDWARDS, Shanno), PENALTY SJ personal foul (VELICHKO, Nate) 9 yards to the SJ12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+3
58.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
58.5%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
58.5%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:5359% → 60%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
58.7%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
58.8%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
58.8%
Brian Burrell run for 9 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
58.9%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+44
60.3%
Marteze Waller run for 44 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5140% → 42%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
59.7%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
59.9%
Joe Gray run for 5 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
59.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+7
59.9%
Joe Gray run for 7 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
59.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 5 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
60.5%
Joe Gray run for 5 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
57.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 51 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
58.2%
Marteze Waller run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
58.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
58.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
58.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 6 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
58.6%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
59.1%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
59.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-1
59.2%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
58.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
58.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:4942% → 47%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
58.3%
Tim Crawley run for 3 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+86
53.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 86 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6FUMBLE
17 plays · 73 yds · 2:3753% → 53%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
53.1%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
53.3%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+20
53.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 20 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
54.4%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+8
54.2%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
54.6%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
53.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 2 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
53.8%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
53.9%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
54.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh Harper, broken up by Cleveland WallaceSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
54.5%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+15
53.9%
Marteze Waller run for 15 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
54.5%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-13
54.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the SJSt 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Josh QuezadaSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+15
52.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 15 yds Chad Olsen fumbled, forced by Maurice McKnight, recovered by SJSt Cleveland WallaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
50.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 13
OWN 3
-1
50.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 14
OWN 2
+3
50.0%
Chris Dadson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 11
OWN 5
-2
50.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+2
50.2%
Joe Gray run for 2 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 11
OWN 5
0
50.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for no gain to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 11
OWN 5
0
51.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0251% → 49%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
51.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 11 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
52.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 7 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
52.3%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+8
51.4%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
52.3%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-15
50.7%
BURRELL, Brian pass complete to HARPER, Josh for 13 yards to the SJ0, clock 06:46, PENALTY FS personal foul (BONNHEIM, BO) 15 yards to the SJ28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 25
OPP 28
+13
49.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 13 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
49.1%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted, touchback. Jimmy Pruitt return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
45.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 3 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
45.5%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Kyrie Wilson return for 4 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2750% → 60%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
50.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 18 yds to the SJSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.4%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.4%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
49.3%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:0946% → 42%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
54.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
55.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 11Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 15
OWN 11
-5
55.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Chris Dadson) to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 20
OWN 6
0
55.4%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 20
OWN 6
+6
57.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 6 yds to the SJSt 12Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+21
58.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 39 yds , Derron Smith returns for 21 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:1363% → 72%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
63.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 12 yds to the SJSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
72.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 18 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5529% → 20%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.9%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
71.4%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+1
72.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 1 yd to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+9
80.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt blocked by Da'Mari Scott blocked by Da'Mari Scott T.J. Thomas return for 9 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
79.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 16 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jabari CarrSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
78.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 15 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
76.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
75.1%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jabari CarrSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
76.1%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
77.1%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jabari CarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
83.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 18 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3881% → 94%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
80.9%
Josh Quezada run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
81.0%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+29
81.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 29 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
81.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for no gain to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
81.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 6 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+9
81.2%
Josh Quezada run for 9 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 19 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:218% → 19%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
92.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 6 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-2
91.6%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+22
92.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 22 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tim Crawley, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
91.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
91.4%
Tim Crawley run for no gain to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+7
91.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
91.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 36 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
90.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q3 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 43 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
86.5%
Josh Quezada run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
86.5%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+10
86.0%
Josh Quezada run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
87.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
87.1%
Josh Quezada run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 1
50
+4
86.7%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
87.4%
Josh Quezada run for 5 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
87.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh QuezadaSimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
86.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for 6 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
87.3%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
86.9%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
86.0%
Brian Burrell punt for 33 yds, downed at the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:0212% → 17%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+26
87.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 26 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
86.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
86.3%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler ErvinSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+16
86.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 16 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
85.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+13
85.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 13 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
85.2%
Joe Gray run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+15
84.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 15 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
87.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
-3
87.0%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
87.9%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Andrew VollertSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
83.3%
Austin Lopez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
86.7%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
86.2%
Brian Burrell sacked by Travis Raciti for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
85.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 45 yds, downed at the SJSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:4314% → 11%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.4%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
87.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 5 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+18
86.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 18 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
84.5%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+17
85.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 17 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+41
88.7%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Charles Washington return for 41 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:4893% → 97%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
92.6%
Josh Quezada run for 5 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
92.7%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
92.5%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+27
92.6%
Josh Quezada run for 27 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
93.6%
Josh Quezada run for 7 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
93.6%
Brandon Connette run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 5Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
93.4%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 9Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
96.9%
Kody Kroening 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
95.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+11
96.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 11 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.9%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
95.9%
Joe Gray run for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 39 Joe Gray fumbled, recovered by SJSt Joe GraySimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+11
96.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Chris Kearney for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 4
50
0
96.0%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jabari CarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:1298% → 98%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
50
+1
98.0%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
98.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+5
98.3%
Josh Quezada run for 5 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+2
98.3%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
98.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-11
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Justin GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 10Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:16
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 19 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+12.5
TD · Q2 2:57
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q2 1:50
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 18 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com