Try the model
BOIS

Boise State 60 at New Mexico 49

UNM
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:38 · Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Marquis Bundy, broken up by Cleshawn Page
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:35: Ridge Jones run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +11.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:42: Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +14.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:13: Shane Williams-Rhodes 18 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — BOIS win probability +23.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:00: Chaz Anderson 36 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — BOIS win probability +33.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:38: Jay Ajayi run for 14 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +10.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:37UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45BOIS 4th & 9 at UNM 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:53BOIS 4th & 20 at BOIS 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:27UNM 4th & 7 at BOIS 31, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:36UNM 4th & 1 at BOIS 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.4%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:28BOIS 4th & 1 at UNM 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−3.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:32UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:13BOIS 4th & 13 at UNM 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:49UNM 4th & 4 at BOIS 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%−1.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:23BOIS 4th & 8 at UNM 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−7.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 6 at BOIS 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:13UNM 4th & 28 at UNM 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−10.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:35BOIS 4th & 4 at UNM 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−3.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:11UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.8%−5.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:49UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 14:37BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:07UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:03BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:53UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:54BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:36UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:47BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 2:35UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q2 0:30BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 6:42UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:13BOIS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    45.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.8%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 7:00BOIS Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:38BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
16.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
16.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 75 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
16.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
16.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
16.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
16.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-2
16.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 46Similar
Q1 14:37
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
16.3%
Zack Rogers punt for 46 yds, downed at the BoiSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
17.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-4
17.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+7
17.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
17.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 6
OWN 12
+10
17.8%
Sean Wale punt for 48 yds , Dameon Gamblin returns for 10 yds to the NMex 22 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:0219% → 21%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+57
18.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 57 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
19.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5680% → 80%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
20.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
20.3%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
20.5%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+20
20.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 20 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
20.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jake Roh, broken up by Markel ByrdSimilar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
20.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 11 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for no gain to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
19.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 15 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
19.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
20.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 13 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
24.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 20 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
23.7%
Grant Hedrick run for 18 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
23.3%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
23.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+7
24.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 7 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
24.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:5527% → 33%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+61
26.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 61 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
30.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
30.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44 BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jeremy McNichols) to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 20
OWN 29
0
30.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jake Roh, broken up by David GuthrieSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 20
OWN 29
0
30.9%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 20
OWN 29
0
31.0%
Sean Wale punt for 63 yds, downed at the NMex 8Similar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 20
OWN 29
0
30.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, UR ( Yards) to the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:0634% → 39%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
33.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+35
34.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 35 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+5
34.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+15
34.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 15 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
35.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-5
35.8%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 31 Lamar Jordan fumbled, recovered by NMex Jhurell PressleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+5
35.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-5
39.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Reno Henderson) to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
39.0%
Zack Rogers 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Beau Martin return for no gain to the BoiSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:3364% → 69%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+28
36.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 13 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Ricky Bennett) to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.4%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
35.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+5
35.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
34.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 27 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:1335% → 45%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
34.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 15 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
36.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 2
50
+1
36.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
35.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+49
44.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 49 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4155% → 63%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.2%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
45.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 17 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
44.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
43.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 8 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
42.9%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Javarie Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 41 Grant Hedrick fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jay Ajayi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 23
OWN 41
+14
45.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 14 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+8
44.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 8 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
43.6%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
36.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 35 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
52.5%
Ridge Jones run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:0548% → 61%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
50.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 16 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
50.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 12 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
49.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
49.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 8 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
48.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
51.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 10 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
51.9%
Grant Hedrick run for 12 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 8 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
44.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
44.5%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+13
47.5%
Sean Wale punt for 47 yds , Dameon Gamblin returns for 13 yds to the NMex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
50.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
50.9%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+2
49.5%
David Anaya run for 2 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
48.0%
Zack Rogers punt blocked by Kamalei Correa blocked by Kamalei CorreaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2256% → 55%
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
43.8%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
43.8%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
45.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Jay Ajayi) to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
47.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for no gain to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
45.5%
Dan Goodale 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3147% → 68%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
46.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 21 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
49.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
50.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
50.2%
Romell Jordan run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
49.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Ridge Jones for no gain to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+27
50.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 27 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
53.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1935% → 33%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.7%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+26
65.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
50
+14
60.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 14 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
60.6%
Grant Hedrick run for 14 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
58.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 9 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
58.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
58.3%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 10Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
58.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
60.1%
Grant Hedrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 8Similar
Q3 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
67.4%
Dan Goodale 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:2371% → 75%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
71.4%
Romell Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
70.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 11 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
74.0%
Romell Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
77.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
76.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
78.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
77.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
76.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Ridge JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+5
75.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0826% → 55%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
74.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 19 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
71.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 31 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.3%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
45.2%
Shane Williams-Rhodes 18 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · -7 yds · 0:0056% → 52%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to David AnayaSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
56.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
58.0%
David Anaya run for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-15
58.3%
JONES, Ridge rush for 9 yards to the NM47 (GRAY, Tyler), PENALTY NM personal foul (MAHINA, Eden) 15 yards to the NM23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 23
OWN 23
0
55.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Reece WhiteSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 23
OWN 23
0
53.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Ridge JonesSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 23
OWN 23
-5
52.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 28
OWN 18
0
52.3%
Zack Rogers punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:3551% → 82%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
49.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
50
+4
48.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
49.2%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+10
51.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
18.5%
Chaz Anderson 36 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:4930% → 28%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
29.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
27.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 16 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
34.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 39Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
32.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to David AnayaSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+9
29.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+1
28.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 3:3384% → 97%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
15.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+13
15.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 13 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
14.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 13 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
14.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
14.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
3.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 14 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to David Anaya for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
3.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
3.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Tyler DuncanSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+25
3.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 25 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
4.3%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Marquis Bundy, broken up by Cleshawn PageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:00
Chaz Anderson 36 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-33.1
TD · Q4 11:13
Shane Williams-Rhodes 18 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-23.1
TD · Q3 6:42
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
+14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com