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AF

Air Force 48 at UNLV 21

UNLV
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:21 · Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense−49.2Score differential−33.0Pregame prior−2.4Garbage-time factor−16.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:33: Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 59 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +11.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:56: Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +11.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:46: Shayne Davern run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +7.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:21: Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +10.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:35: D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +8.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 11AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:07AF 4th & 8 at UNLV 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:07UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:08UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 2 at UNLV 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:20UNLV 4th & 3 at AF 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:28UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:41UNLV 4th & 17 at AF 30, down 24
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:41UNLV 4th & 4 at AF 4, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−10.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:15AF 4th & 6 at AF 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:25UNLV 4th & 16 at AF 38, down 17
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:30UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:28AF 4th & 7 at UNLV 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:21UNLV 4th & 2 at AF 48, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:21UNLV 4th & 10 at AF 45, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:48AF 4th & 4 at UNLV 49, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:38UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 17, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:00AF 4th & 1 at UNLV 44, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:50UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:49AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:27AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:33AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:14UNLV Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:56AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:46AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:21UNLV Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:35AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1038% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 11 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
38.1%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+13
38.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
38.1%
Blake Decker run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
38.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 7 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
38.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.1%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-7
38.1%
Blake Decker sacked by David Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+19
38.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 19 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
38.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+7
38.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 7 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
38.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
42.5%
Blake Decker run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:3659% → 58%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
41.5%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
41.6%
Jon Lee run for 12 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
41.3%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
41.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+17
41.3%
Kale Pearson run for 17 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
41.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
41.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-3
41.3%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
42.2%
Will Conant 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
42.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 15 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
43.0%
Blake Decker run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 1
50
0
43.3%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 1
50
-1
43.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
42.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:0157% → 61%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
43.1%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
42.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
42.5%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
42.6%
Kale Pearson run for 8 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
42.4%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
42.5%
Shayne Davern run for 15 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
42.0%
Matt Galland run for 9 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+6
42.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4141% → 41%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
40.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
40.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 6:3559% → 66%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
41.1%
Jon Lee run for 5 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+11
40.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
40.2%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
40.0%
Jon Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
40.6%
PEARSON, Kale pass incomplete to GALLAND, Matt, PENALTY LV pass interference (HODGE, Sidney) 15 yards to the LV45, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
39.8%
Kale Pearson sacked by Josh Shirley and Tau Lotulelei for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+4
39.8%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+5
40.0%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+5
40.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
39.4%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+7
39.4%
Kale Pearson run for 7 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+5
39.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
39.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+6
39.3%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
39.3%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+5
39.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
39.8%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.9%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
34.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
33.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+9
33.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 9 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
34.4%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
34.5%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+25
33.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 25 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
35.6%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
36.6%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika Mataele, broken up by Justin DeCoudSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+5
35.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
34.6%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3067% → 79%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
32.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Jon Lee run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+7
32.7%
Kale Pearson run for 7 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
20.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 59 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0924% → 34%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
24.2%
Keith Whitely run for 7 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
25.4%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
25.3%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+48
25.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 48 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
26.5%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
26.5%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 4Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:0770% → 85%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
30.4%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+13
30.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 13 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
30.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Matt Galland for 32 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
30.0%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
27.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:2321% → 28%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
20.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 4 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST down lat. to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 20 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
22.3%
Blake Decker sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
27.4%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
27.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Shaquille Murray-LawrenceSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
27.7%
Logan Yunker punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
19.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:1281% → 90%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
18.7%
Kale Pearson run for 10 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
18.0%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+53
17.8%
Colton Huntsman run for 53 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14DOWNS
15 plays · 67 yds · 0:0013% → 15%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
13.2%
Blake Decker sacked by Jordan Pierce for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+11
12.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 11 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+6
13.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 6 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
14.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+22
13.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 22 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
14.8%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to BOYD, Devonte, PENALTY AF pass interference (DECOUD, Justin) 15 yards to the AF23, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
15.9%
Blake Decker sacked by Jacob Onyechi and David Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
15.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 17
OPP 30
0
14.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+25
13.8%
Troy Hawthorne pass complete to Jake Phillips for 25 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
16.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
16.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
15.4%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Jordan MaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
6.2%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 7
-5
6.2%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 2 Kale Pearson fumbled, recovered by UNLV Matt LeaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:299% → 19%
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.5%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
15.0%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
15.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
15.3%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
15.6%
Will Conant punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+34
15.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 34 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
17.4%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-7
17.2%
Blake Decker sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 16
OPP 38
0
15.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 16
OPP 38
0
15.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 31 yds, downed at the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 4:0788% → 98%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
12.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+41
12.5%
Colton Huntsman pass complete to Kale Pearson for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
50
+10
11.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
11.3%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
10.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+6
11.1%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
10.9%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-2
10.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jacobi Owens for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+22
11.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 22 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
3.7%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Kyle Saxelid) to the UNLV 8Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+6
3.6%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 6 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
3.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
3.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
3.7%
Logan Yunker punt for 61 yds, downed at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:3297% → 99%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.7%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+55
2.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 55 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
2.4%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
2.4%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-4
2.5%
Matt Galland run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 16 Matt Galland fumbled, recovered by AFA Matt GallandSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
0.6%
Will Conant 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
0.7%
LEBOWITZ, Jared pass incomplete to DAVIS, Devante, PENALTY AF PFRP (HANSEN, Alex) 15 yards to the LV44, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
0.7%
Jared Lebowitz run for 3 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
0.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
0.8%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+3
0.7%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.8%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
0.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
0.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
0.7%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.4%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
0.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+4
0.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
0.3%
Will Conant punt for 39 yds, downed at the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
0.3%
Jared Lebowitz pass complete to Kendal Keys for 7 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Jared Lebowitz pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 36 yds, downed at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25END OF GAME
13 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.3%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
0.3%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
0.3%
Devin Rushing run for 5 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
0.3%
Devin Rushing run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
0.3%
Devin Rushing run for 2 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
0.3%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+5
0.3%
Devin Rushing run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
0.3%
Paco Solano run for 3 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
0.3%
Broam Hart run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+5
0.3%
Broam Hart run for 5 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
0.3%
Paco Solano run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-4
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 13
OPP 25
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:33
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 59 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 0:56
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q3 8:21
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com