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AF

Air Force 23 at Army 6

ARMY
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:44 · Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior−9.5Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:45: Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +11.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:34: Will Conant 50 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +5.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:13: Timeout ARMY, clock 03:13 — AF win probability +7.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:59: Daniel Grochowski 46 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +2.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:05: Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +14.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 11AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:17ARMY 4th & 6 at AF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34AF 4th & 2 at ARMY 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:48ARMY 4th & 11 at AF 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48AF 4th & 5 at ARMY 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 13 at ARMY 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44AF 4th & 2 at ARMY 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:38AF 4th & 4 at ARMY 21, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:16ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:13AF 4th & 7 at ARMY 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:20ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:19AF 4th & 1 at AF 22, up 3
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 13 at ARMY 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−3.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:45ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:34AF 4th & 7 at ARMY 32, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:34ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 39, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:59ARMY 4th & 18 at AF 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:52AF 4th & 14 at ARMY 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    75.4%−2.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 27, down 10
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:05AF 4th & 2 at ARMY 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−10.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:52ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 12:45AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:05AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1INT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
37.5%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
37.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
37.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 5 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
37.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-5
37.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+5
37.5%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+11
37.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Alex Ludowig for 11 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
37.5%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+3
37.5%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+31
37.5%
Kale Pearson pass intercepted Josh Jenkins return for 31 yds to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5739% → 40%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
39.4%
Angel Santiago pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
39.4%
Angel Santiago run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
39.3%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Kelvin WhiteSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
39.9%
Daniel Grochowski 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:3560% → 60%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
39.8%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
40.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
40.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
40.2%
Kale Pearson run for 10 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
39.9%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
39.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
39.8%
Garrett Brown run for 1 yd to the Army 47Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+1
40.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3842% → 43%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.9%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the Army 46Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+32
41.6%
Angel Santiago run for 32 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
42.3%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
42.2%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Kelvin WhiteSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-1
41.9%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
42.5%
Daniel Grochowski 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
42.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
42.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
42.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
42.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
42.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 7 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+10
42.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
41.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Army 48Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
41.7%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
41.9%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the Army 44Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
42.4%
Will Conant punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4444% → 44%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.4%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the Army 20Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
44.3%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
44.0%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
43.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 23 yds, downed at the Army 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:0657% → 57%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
43.3%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-2
43.3%
Colton Huntsman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 38Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+6
43.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+5
44.3%
Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
42.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
42.8%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the Army 24Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+3
43.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
43.1%
Will Conant 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1346% → 44%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
45.5%
Terry Baggett run for 1 yd to the Army 19Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+7
45.4%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
44.6%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Army 27Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
44.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2057% → 60%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
42.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
42.6%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+3
41.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
41.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Colton Huntsman for 17 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
41.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 29 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
40.1%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the Army 12Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
40.1%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
41.0%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jon Lee, broken up by Hayden PierceSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
39.8%
Will Conant 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:5340% → 39%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Tony GiovannelliSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
40.1%
Raymond Maples run for 26 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
43.2%
Larry Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 11
50
+4
41.8%
Angel Santiago run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-5
42.7%
Ryan Alexander run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 49Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
39.1%
Alex Tardieu punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1661% → 59%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
39.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
39.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
39.6%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+58
40.7%
Will Conant punt for 58 yds , Xavier Moss returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
37.7%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 19Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
37.5%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 9 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
37.2%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
38.0%
Angel Santiago sacked by Jordan Pierce for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.0%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete, broken up by Dexter WalkerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
41.8%
Tony Giovannelli run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-5
41.3%
Angel Santiago sacked by Troy Timmerman for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
39.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4861% → 73%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
39.2%
Kale Pearson run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
37.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
26.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.5%
Tony Giovannelli run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
28.5%
Angel Santiago sacked by Spencer Proctor for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
27.1%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete ARMY Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
26.1%
Alex Tardieu punt for 39 yds, downed at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4673% → 79%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
27.3%
Kale Pearson run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, UR (Stephen Ricciardi) to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
26.0%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 37 Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by AFA Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
26.3%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 12
OPP 0
0
26.7%
PEARSON, Kale pass incomplete to ROBINETTE, Jale, PENALTY ARMY pass interference off-setting, PENALTY AF ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+5
27.0%
Colton Huntsman run for 5 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
21.0%
Will Conant 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17FG
17 plays · 47 yds · 6:3524% → 21%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.1%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
25.0%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
24.4%
Raymond Maples run for 1 yd to the Army 36Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
24.6%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
24.2%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+17
23.9%
Kelvin White run for 17 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.0%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
25.8%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
27.2%
Terry Baggett run for 8 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
27.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
27.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-10
27.2%
Dixon, Larry rush for no gain to the AF19 (HEALY, Connor;HANSEN, Alex), PENALTY ARMY holding (Santiago, Angel) 10 yards to the AF29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+1
26.4%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 18
OPP 28
0
18.9%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Justin DeCoud ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+46
20.9%
Daniel Grochowski 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
20.6%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
21.1%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+16
20.2%
PEARSON, Kale pass incomplete to ROBINETTE, Jale, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Jenkins, Josh) 16 yards to the ARMY42, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
19.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Army 41Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
19.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-7
19.8%
Kale Pearson sacked by Jeremy Timpf for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 46Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
23.0%
Will Conant punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1820% → 19%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.0%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
19.7%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+6
18.9%
Trenton Turrentine run for 6 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
18.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 52 yds, downed at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 6:2679% → 96%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
21.1%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+18
20.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 18 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
18.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 19 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
18.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
17.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+8
18.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 8 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
17.6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 16 yds to the Army 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
17.3%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the Army 3Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
17.6%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the Army 2Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
18.2%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the Army 2Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
4.9%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+10
4.8%
Tony Giovannelli run for 10 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
5.0%
Tony Giovannelli run for 4 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
5.3%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Raymond Maples ARMY Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-8
5.1%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Jordan Pierce for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+20
4.7%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 20 yds Tony Giovannelli fumbled, forced by Justin DeCoud, recovered by AFA Weston SteelhammerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
2.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
2.6%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+16
2.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 16 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.6%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the Army 36Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+19
2.6%
Shayne Davern run for 19 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 19Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-2
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:05
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q3 12:45
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
-11.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:13
Timeout ARMY, clock 03:13
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com