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UNLV

UNLV 20 at Utah State 34

USU
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-5USU 93.8%Blake Decker pass complete to DevonteBoyd for 41 yds for a TD, (JonathanLeiva KICK)AWAY 20 - HOME 34 · Q4 7:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:06 · Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+5.4Home team on offense+21.5Score differential+7.0Garbage-time factor+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:17: Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 31 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:17: Craig Harrison pass complete to JoJo Natson for 71 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +4.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:04: Taylor Barnhill 2 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Jonathan Leiva PAT blocked) — UNLV win probability +4.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 10:25: Craig Harrison pass complete to Joe Hill for 69 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +8.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:06: Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +5.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UNLV made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 13:02UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30USU 4th & 1 at UNLV 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:02UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:04USU 4th & 20 at USU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:09UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44USU 4th & 9 at UNLV 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:35UNLV 4th & 1 at USU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:53USU 4th & 7 at USU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:19UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:45UNLV 4th & 1 at USU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−1.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:16USU 4th & 6 at USU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:38UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:54USU 4th & 6 at USU 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:49USU 4th & 10 at UNLV 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:37UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:28UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:53USU 4th & 12 at UNLV 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:26UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:52USU 4th & 2 at USU 15, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q3 1:25UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  21. Q3 0:00UNLV 4th & 15 at USU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−3.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:41USU 4th & 11 at USU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:23USU 4th & 4 at UNLV 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:29USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:17UNLV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:17USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:04UNLV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:25USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:48USU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:06UNLV Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4813% → 13%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
87.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-13
87.1%
Blake Decker sacked by B.J. Larsen for a loss of 13 yards to the UNLV 19Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
87.1%
Logan Yunker punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1587% → 86%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
87.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+31
86.9%
Nick Vigil run for 31 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
86.9%
Nick Vigil run for 12 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
86.8%
Nick Vigil run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
86.6%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+16
86.4%
Craig Harrison run for 16 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
86.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
86.4%
Nick Vigil run for 6 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
85.9%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd to the UNLV 3Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
85.8%
Nick Vigil run for no gain to the UNLV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2115% → 15%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
85.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
85.5%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the UNLV 3Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+6
85.4%
Blake Decker run for 6 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
85.4%
Logan Yunker punt for 37 yds, downed at the UNLV 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5686% → 85%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
85.5%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
85.3%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Joe HillSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-9
85.0%
Craig Harrison run for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 44 Craig Harrison fumbled, recovered by UthStSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 20
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5415% → 15%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
84.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
84.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
84.8%
UNLV Penalty, False Start to the UNLV 18Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
84.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+5
84.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 43 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:3185% → 86%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.9%
Nick Vigil run for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
84.6%
Craig Harrison pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 5 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+7
84.6%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Jefferson Court for 7 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
84.5%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Ronald Butler for 6 yds to the UNLV 38, UNLV Penalty, Roughing Passer (Sidney Hodge) to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
84.6%
Craig Harrison run for 19 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
84.6%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.4%
Nick Vigil run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.2%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Jefferson Court for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
85.6%
Blake Decker sacked by Nick Vigil for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 17 Blake Decker fumbled, forced by Nick Vigil, recovered by UthSt Travis Seefeldt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2686% → 86%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
86.4%
Craig Harrison run for 12 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
86.4%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd to the UNLV 4Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
86.3%
Harrison, Craig rush for 2 yards to the UNLV2, PENALTY UTAHST illegal formation 5 yards to the UNLV9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.3%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.1%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
86.1%
Nick Diaz 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:0815% → 19%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
85.4%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
85.4%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
85.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 3 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
85.7%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
81.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 31 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5282% → 81%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.4%
Joe Hill run for 5 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-2
82.9%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
81.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+7
81.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 43 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 7 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2618% → 18%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
82.1%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
81.6%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
81.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
82.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 50 yds, downed at the UthSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:3881% → 86%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
81.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+15
81.1%
Craig Harrison pass complete to JoJo Natson for 15 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
81.6%
Craig Harrison sacked by Sidney Hodge and Tau Lotulelei for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+71
85.7%
Craig Harrison pass complete to JoJo Natson for 71 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:1014% → 15%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+43
86.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 43 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.7%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
84.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+10
85.3%
Blake Decker run for 10 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
85.2%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for no gain to the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1486% → 86%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
86.4%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 3 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
86.6%
JoJo Natson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
86.3%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
85.5%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 51 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for no gain to the UNLV 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:2214% → 13%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+21
86.0%
Blake Decker run for 6 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (LT Filiaga) to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
85.8%
Blake Decker sacked by David Moala for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 17
OWN 20
+8
86.2%
Blake Decker run for 8 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
86.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
86.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Hayden Weichers at the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3186% → 86%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
86.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
86.6%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+1
85.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 44 yds, downed at the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 0:4613% → 21%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
86.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 11 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
86.1%
Blake Decker run for 10 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
85.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 19 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
84.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 20 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
84.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 4 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
84.6%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.2%
Taylor Barnhill 2 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Jonathan Leiva PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5180% → 78%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
80.0%
Nick Vigil run for 2 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
79.8%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Hunter Sharp for no gain to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+12
78.6%
Craig Harrison run for 12 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
80.7%
Craig Harrison pass complete to JoJo Natson for 18 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.0%
JoJo Natson run for no gain to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
80.8%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
79.8%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
78.0%
Ronald Butler pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0523% → 21%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
77.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+7
79.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 7 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+9
79.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 36 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 9 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21TD
1 play · 69 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
88.0%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Joe Hill for 69 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3213% → 12%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
86.9%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
87.5%
Blake Decker run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
88.4%
Logan Yunker punt for 25 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2989% → 92%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
89.1%
Craig Harrison pass complete to JoJo Natson for 9 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+15
89.2%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 15 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
89.2%
Craig Harrison run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+2
88.9%
Craig Harrison pass complete to JoJo Natson for 2 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
88.5%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+49
91.9%
Nick Diaz 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0410% → 9%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
90.2%
Decker, Blake rush for 9 yards to the UNLV44, PENALTY UNLV holding (Whitely, Keith) 10 yards to the UNLV25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+4
90.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+10
91.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 10 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+2
90.6%
Blake Decker run for 2 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
91.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 47 yds , JoJo Natson returns for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 7 JoJo Natson fumbled, forced by Najee Johnson, recovered by UthStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2393% → 93%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
92.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 7Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
93.9%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+8
93.7%
Craig Harrison run for 8 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
93.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:219% → 8%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
91.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, Encroachment (Ricky Ali'ifua) to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
90.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
91.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
91.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 24 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27FUMBLE
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
94.6%
Craig Harrison sacked by Jordan Sparkman for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 21 Craig Harrison fumbled, forced by Jordan Sparkman, recovered by UNLV Siuea Vaesau , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28MISSED FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0010% → 8%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-6
89.9%
Blake Decker sacked by B.J. Larsen for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 16
OPP 27
0
90.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+1
92.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
92.2%
Jonathan Leiva 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Michael OkonkwoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:5295% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
94.6%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+9
94.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to JoJo Natson for 9 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+4
94.8%
Joe Hill run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
95.2%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
95.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
95.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Ronald Butler) to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+27
94.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 27 yds to the UTAHST 38 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kenneth Penny) declined Similar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
95.7%
Joe Hill run for 8 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+18
95.8%
Kent Myers run for 18 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Joe Hill run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 30TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:251% → 6%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
98.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 12 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
98.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 10 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
98.8%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+13
98.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 13 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
98.8%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (Nick Gstrein) to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-1
98.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 16
OPP 49
0
98.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+24
99.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 24 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
98.7%
Blake Decker sacked by Jordan Nielsen and Frankie Sutera for a loss of 10 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 20
OPP 35
-6
98.8%
Blake Decker sacked by Bryant Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 26
OPP 41
+41
93.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 31PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5996% → 97%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.4%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
96.5%
Kent Myers run for 15 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
97.0%
Kent Myers sacked by Sidney Hodge for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+4
96.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 4 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 11
OWN 37
-5
97.2%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 48 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 32INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:244% → 4%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
95.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 4 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
95.7%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Deshane Hines return for no gain to the UthSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5398% → 98%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
97.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (NA) to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+13
97.7%
Joe Hill run for 13 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-3
97.8%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+1
98.2%
Joe Hill run for 1 yd to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 34INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:092% → 2%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
97.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
97.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 35END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
98.8%
Joe Hill run for 7 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+5
98.8%
Joe Hill run for 5 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:25
Craig Harrison pass complete to Joe Hill for 69 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q4 7:06
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)
-5
TD · Q2 0:04
Taylor Barnhill 2 Yd pass from Blake Decker (Jonathan Leiva PAT blocked)
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com