2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:12 · Stuart Williams 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FUMBLE · Q3 1:33: Limihai Hifo run for 6 yds Limihai Hifo fumbled, forced by Blair Burns, recovered by Wyom Blair Burns , return for 63 yds, (Stuart Williams KICK) — WYO win probability +16.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:16: Joe Gray run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +24.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:09: Shaun Wick run for 48 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK) — WYO win probability +27.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 4:10: Stuart Williams 19 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +18.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:42: Austin Lopez 50 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +28.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 15:00WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%average punt
- Q1 8:43SJSU 4th & 10 at WYO 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.0%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call44.2%80% to makePunt43.2%−1.0average punt
- Q1 8:43WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snapGo for it54.7%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%average punt
- Q1 4:32SJSU 4th & 7 at WYO 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snapGo for it44.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call44.9%56% to makePunt44.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:32WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.4%70% to convertField goal54.5%−1.025% to makePunt54.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:12WYO 4th & 12 at SJSU 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snapGo for it52.3%−1.121% to convertField goalTheir call53.4%77% to makePunt49.0%−4.4average punt
- Q2 5:52WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 47, tiedClose callPunted · 57.5% before the snapGo for it58.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.6%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:18SJSU 4th & 5 at WYO 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snapGo for it61.8%−0.539% to convertField goalTheir call62.3%84% to makePunt53.4%−8.9average punt
- Q3 10:18WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.4%−1.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.7%average punt
- Q3 6:14WYO 4th & 13 at SJSU 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it35.7%−2.221% to convertField goal35.7%−2.227% to makePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q4 12:09WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.2%−5.2average punt
- Q4 12:09SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snapGo for it44.2%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.1%average punt
- Q4 4:10WYO 4th & 2 at SJSU 2, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 6.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snapGo for it59.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call52.3%−6.894% to makePunt24.5%−34.6average punt
- Q4 4:10SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt24.3%−6.4average punt
- Q4 0:42SJSU 4th & 9 at WYO 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snapGo for it15.0%−9.032% to convertField goalTheir call24.0%49% to makePunt7.6%−16.4average punt
- Q4 0:00WYO 4th & 2 at SJSU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snapGo for it55.3%−11.157% to convertField goalTheir call66.4%58% to makePunt43.0%−23.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 0:03SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.1%97% to makeGo for two56.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:16SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.8%97% to makeGo for two64.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 12:09WYO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.3%97% to makeGo for two52.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2FG12 plays · 57 yds · 4:3750% → 50%
Q1 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+8
49.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 8 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+16
49.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 16 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
49.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 13 yds to the Wyom 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-1
49.7%
Joe Gray sacked by Eddie Yarbrough for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 8:43
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
49.4%
Ethan Wood punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4MISSED FG8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1050% → 50%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
49.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 20 yds to the Wyom 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5FG19 plays · 51 yds · 9:2050% → 53%
Q1 4:32
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-10
50.8%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Adrian Blake for a loss of 10 yards to the Wyom 29Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+17
49.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 17 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive holding (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
50.5%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Shaun Wick for 6 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+10
51.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 10 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+14
51.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 14 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 26
+9
51.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Shaun Wick for 9 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-2
51.5%
Colby Kirkegaard sacked by Travis Raciti for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT14 plays · 22 yds · 3:3648% → 48%
Q2 10:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
50.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 14 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+20
51.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 20 yds to the Wyom 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 18
OPP 31
-10
49.9%
GRAY, Joe pass complete to CRAWLEY, Tim for 31 yards to the WY0, clock 06:36, PENALTY SJ holding (PETERSON, David) 10 yards to the WY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 40
OWN 47
+27
51.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 40 yds , Jalen Claiborne returns for 27 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 5:52
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-3
55.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 40 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8TD16 plays · 90 yds · 4:2248% → 67%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
51.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 6 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
48.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 5 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
47.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 6 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+15
47.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 15 yds to the Wyom 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
45.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 6 yds to the Wyom 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
32.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 13 yds for a TD WYOMING Penalty, Defensive holding (NA) declined, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10MISSED FG10 plays · 47 yds · 4:4265% → 65%
WYODrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12FUMBLE7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0065% → 67%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
35.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 13 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
32.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Daniel Bradbury for 1 yd to the Wyom 35Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-14
32.8%
Joe Gray sacked by Eddie Yarbrough for a loss of 14 yards to the SJSt 41 Joe Gray fumbled, recovered by Wyom Chase Appleby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0040% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14FUMBLE TD7 plays · 58 yds · 3:4367% → 53%
Q3 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
32.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 12 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+63
47.4%
Limihai Hifo run for 6 yds Limihai Hifo fumbled, forced by Blair Burns, recovered by Wyom Blair Burns , return for 63 yds, (Stuart Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1749% → 77%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.4%
GRAY, Joe pass incomplete to WINSTON, Tyler, PENALTY WY pass interference (PRIESTER,Robert) 15 yards to the SJ40, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+17
51.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 2 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (Siaosi Hala'api'api) to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
46.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 26 yds to the Wyom 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0731% → 57%
Q4 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+6
32.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 6 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 46%
Q4 12:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+16
53.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 51 yds , Jalen Claiborne returns for 16 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18FG14 plays · 62 yds · 5:4557% → 79%
SJSUDrive 19FG15 plays · 39 yds · 3:2835% → 55%
Q4 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+5
64.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 5 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
63.7%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tim Crawley, broken up by Jesse SampsonSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
65.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 8 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+18
62.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 18 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-15
69.4%
GRAY, Joe pass complete to WILSON, Hansell for 34 yards to the WY0, clock 01:18, PENALTY SJ personal foul 15 yards to the WY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 25
OPP 49
+16
75.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 16 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20MISSED FG8 plays · 46 yds · 0:4255% → 59%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.1%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Shaun Wick for 9 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+29
58.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 29 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+8
59.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 8 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21TD7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
40.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 11 yds to the Wyom 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
40.5%
GRAY, Joe pass incomplete to CARR, Jabari (SAMPSON, Jesse), PENALTY WY holding (SAMPSON, Jesse) 7 yards to the WY7, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
40.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by Tyran FinleySimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 23%
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+3
25.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Shaun Wick for 3 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:42
Austin Lopez 50 yd FG GOOD
-28.9
TD · Q4 12:09
Shaun Wick run for 48 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)
+27.2
TD · Q4 14:16
Joe Gray run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
-24.1