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NEV

Nevada 42 at BYU 35

BYU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:48 · Scott Arellano punt for 53 yds , Richy Turner returns for 20 yds to the BYU 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior+5.0Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:16: Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +9.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:18: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 18 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Cody Fajardo pass to Hasaan Henderson GOOD) — NEV win probability +29.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:34: Cody Fajardo run for 25 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +28.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:54: James Butler run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +10.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Christian Stewart pass complete to Keanu Nelson for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +24.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:13NEV 4th & 7 at BYU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03NEV 4th & 11 at BYU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10BYU 4th & 7 at NEV 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:33NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:20BYU 4th & 3 at NEV 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:30NEV 4th & 2 at BYU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:24NEV 4th & 3 at BYU 8, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:40BYU 4th & 2 at NEV 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:20BYU 4th & 10 at NEV 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:30NEV 4th & 3 at BYU 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:40BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:20NEV 4th & 3 at BYU 49, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50NEV 4th & 1 at BYU 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−5.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−5.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:09NEV 4th & 2 at BYU 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−2.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:48BYU 4th & 30 at BYU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−11.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:00BYU 4th & 8 at NEV 29, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:29NEV 4th & 8 at BYU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:00BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:41BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:40NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:48BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:00BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:16NEV Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:18NEV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    33.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:34NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:54NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:34BYU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:1721% → 23%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.7%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
78.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 2 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Roughing Passer (NA) to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
78.5%
Don Jackson run for 10 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
78.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-4
78.2%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Matt Moen) to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-1
78.0%
Cody Fajardo run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+19
77.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 19 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
77.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
77.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
77.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
77.5%
Brent Zuzo 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5978% → 77%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
77.5%
Paul Lasike run for 3 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
77.2%
Jordan Leslie run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
77.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
76.9%
Scott Arellano punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Richy Turner at the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4823% → 24%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
76.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred Gipson, broken up by Bronson KaufusiSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
76.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 6 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+14
76.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
76.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 5 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
75.9%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Jarred Gipson) to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
75.8%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
75.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy Turner, broken up by Harvey JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
76.2%
Alex Boy punt for 37 yds, downed at the BYU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 97 yds · 2:5576% → 78%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
75.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 13 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+23
75.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 23 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
76.0%
Algernon Brown run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
76.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 12 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.2%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
76.2%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
75.8%
Christian Stewart run for 3 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+15
75.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 15 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
76.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Algernon Brown for 11 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
76.1%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Mitch Mathews) to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+23
75.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 23 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.6%
Paul Lasike 1 Yd Run (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1323% → 23%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
77.0%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy Turner, broken up by Michael DavisSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
77.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 3 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-1
77.2%
Cody Fajardo sacked by Michael Alisa for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+1
77.3%
Alex Boy punt for 52 yds , Keanu Nelson returns for 1 yd to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 2:4477% → 80%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
76.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Terenn Houk, broken up by Randy UzomaSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
76.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Ross ApoSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+12
76.0%
Christian Stewart run for 12 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
76.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Kurt HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
76.3%
Christian Stewart run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
50
+11
77.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
77.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
77.2%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+7
76.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+6
76.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 6 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.3%
Christian Stewart run for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
77.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 7 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
80.4%
Paul Lasike 20 Yd pass from Christian Stewart (Trevor Samson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4520% → 26%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+66
80.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 66 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.8%
James Butler run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:1776% → 82%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
76.4%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
76.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 10 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
76.8%
Christian Stewart run for 9 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+8
77.0%
Nate Carter run for 8 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
77.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 7 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
81.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 20 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 6:0620% → 20%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
79.9%
Don Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
79.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
50
+11
79.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 11 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
79.4%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Matt Moen) to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
79.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+10
80.3%
Don Jackson run for 10 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+3
79.8%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+5
81.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 5 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
80.2%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+8
80.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 8 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
80.9%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
80.3%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+6
80.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 6 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
81.0%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred Gipson, broken up by Bronson KaufusiSimilar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
79.8%
Brent Zuzo 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
19 plays · 90 yds · 4:0581% → 90%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
80.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Ross ApoSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+16
80.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 16 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
81.1%
Paul Lasike run for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+22
81.0%
Nate Carter run for 22 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
82.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
81.7%
Nate Carter run for 11 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
82.8%
Christian Stewart sacked by Brock Hekking for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
82.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+9
81.9%
Paul Lasike run for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+5
81.7%
Paul Lasike run for 5 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
84.0%
Nate Carter run for 5 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
83.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Trey Dye for 4 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
83.1%
Paul Lasike run for 3 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
84.0%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
89.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4513% → 13%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.4%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
87.1%
James Butler run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:1588% → 88%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
88.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
88.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 2 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
88.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 22 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
88.7%
Nate Carter run for 15 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan Leslie, broken up by Charles GarrettSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
88.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Kurt HendersonSimilar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
88.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
87.7%
Trevor Samson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:0013% → 23%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.3%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
87.5%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+22
87.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 22 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
86.4%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
86.5%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+10
86.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
86.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 3 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-11
85.7%
Jackson, Don rush for 1 yard to the BYU31, PENALTY NEVADA holding (Gipson, Jarred) 11 yards to the BYU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 18
OPP 43
0
87.6%
Cody Fajardo run for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+15
88.3%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 15 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+5
87.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to James Butler for 5 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
86.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 12 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
86.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 10 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:1083% → 84%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
83.1%
Christian Stewart run for 4 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
82.9%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
83.5%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Mitch Mathews) to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+5
82.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 5 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+13
82.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 13 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
84.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Paul LasikeSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
83.6%
Scott Arellano punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1019% → 18%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
80.7%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
81.0%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Kendall BrockSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+6
82.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 6 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
81.8%
Alex Boy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keanu Nelson at the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16FUMBLE
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:4786% → 89%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
85.6%
Mitchell Juergens run for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+3
85.6%
Christian Stewart run for 3 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+6
85.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 6 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.9%
Paul Lasike run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
85.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 5 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
86.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 12 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
88.1%
Nate Carter run for 20 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
88.5%
Paul Lasike run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+19
88.6%
Terenn Houk run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 48 Terenn Houk fumbled, forced by Randy Uzoma, recovered by Nevad Brock Hekking , return for 19 yds to the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:2217% → 50%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
82.6%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 8 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
82.2%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Don JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
82.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
84.1%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
82.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Jarred Gipson, broken up by Fred WarnerSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
82.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 5 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+3
82.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Kendall Brock for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+6
83.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 6 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
79.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 3 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
79.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
50.5%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 18 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Cody Fajardo pass to Hasaan Henderson GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · -9 yds · 1:1261% → 56%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.2%
Paul Lasike run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
63.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
60.0%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
61.8%
Paul Lasike run for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-23
61.0%
Christian Stewart sacked by Lenny Jones and Brock Hekking for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 31 BYU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tejan Koroma) to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 30
OWN 16
+20
56.4%
Scott Arellano punt for 53 yds , Richy Turner returns for 20 yds to the BYU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:0750% → 82%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
49.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Robertson DanielSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
50.3%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+19
50.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 19 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
46.1%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+25
17.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 25 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
26.4%
Christian Stewart sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 20 Christian Stewart fumbled, forced by Ian Seau, recovered by Nevad Matthew Lyons , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0684% → 95%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
16.2%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+13
15.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 13 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.9%
James Butler run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:116% → 29%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
5.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 20 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
6.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
5.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Keanu Nelson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 5
50
+6
6.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 6 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
5.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Paul LasikeSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
5.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
4.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 5 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
4.7%
Christian Stewart sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+8
4.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
4.3%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+9
3.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 9 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
4.3%
Christian Stewart run for 9 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 11
-7
4.3%
Christian Stewart sacked by Patrick Choudja for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+10
4.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 10 yds to the Nevad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
28.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Keanu Nelson for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:0091% → 94%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
8.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
8.4%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-2
4.8%
Cody Fajardo run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
5.8%
Alex Boy punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:4111% → 14%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
11.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 10 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
11.4%
Christian Stewart run for 12 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
11.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
13.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 6 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
12.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
13.3%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+5
14.3%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the Nevad 34 Christian Stewart fumbled, forced by Austin Carrow, recovered by Nevad Jonathan McNealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:18
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 18 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Cody Fajardo pass to Hasaan Henderson GOOD)
-29.4
TD · Q4 7:34
Cody Fajardo run for 25 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
-28.4
TD · Q4 2:34
Christian Stewart pass complete to Keanu Nelson for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+24.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com