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USU

Utah State 13 at Colorado State 16

CSU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · Jaron Bentrude punt for 52 yds, downed at the ColSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−4.6Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:50: Jared Roberts 52 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: 4th down).
  2. FG · Q4 14:20: Nick Diaz 32 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +5.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:56: Timeout UTAH ST, clock 01:56 — USU win probability +9.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 1:50: Jared Roberts 46 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +23.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jared Roberts 46 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +29.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:40USU 4th & 4 at USU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:17CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:57CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22USU 4th & 3 at CSU 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:22CSU 4th & 28 at CSU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54CSU 4th & 13 at USU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:03USU 4th & 9 at USU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:50CSU 4th & 19 at USU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:50USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15CSU 4th & 25 at CSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−2.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USU 4th & 8 at CSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:38CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−3.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:46USU 4th & 10 at USU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:49CSU 4th & 18 at CSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−4.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:20USU 4th & 7 at CSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−15.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:42CSU 4th & 5 at USU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:42USU 4th & 6 at USU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−2.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:50CSU 4th & 4 at USU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−5.6
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−21.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:40USU 4th & 15 at USU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−12.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:40CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:57USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2067% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+69
67.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 69 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
67.4%
Dee Hart run for 5 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Steven Walker, broken up by Jordan NielsenSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.8%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
67.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 9 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
67.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
67.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 4 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
67.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 2 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
67.6%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
68.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Nick Januska) to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
68.0%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
68.0%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the ColSt 7Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
67.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 9
OWN 7
-3
67.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 49 yds , JoJo Natson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:1532% → 34%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
66.4%
Joe Hill run for 59 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.8%
Treyous Jarrells run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
66.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Frankie SuteraSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+1
66.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:2934% → 36%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
66.4%
Joe Hill run for 5 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+6
66.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hayden Weichers for 6 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
66.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
66.3%
JoJo Natson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+29
66.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 29 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
65.7%
GARRETSON, Dare pass incomplete to ROBINSON, Devon, PENALTY CS personal foul (JACKSON, Terry) 15 yards to the CS15, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
65.7%
Hunter Sharp run for 1 yd to the ColSt 14Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-4
65.7%
Devonte Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+10
66.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hayden Weichers for 10 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
64.2%
Nick Diaz 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · -4 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jordan White for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
64.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
64.7%
Dee Hart run for no gain to the ColSt 39 COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Joe Hansley) to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 25
OWN 24
0
64.1%
Dee Hart run for 15 yds to the ColSt 39 COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Joe Hansley) to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 25
OWN 24
0
64.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for no gain to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 25
OWN 24
+1
64.0%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 24
OWN 25
-4
63.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 28
OWN 21
+6
63.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 6 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0038% → 38%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
62.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Joe Hill for 6 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-1
62.4%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+8
61.7%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Max Morgan return for 8 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
64.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Terry Jackson) to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
64.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 9 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+8
64.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 8 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
64.5%
Dee Hart run for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
65.0%
Joe Hansley run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-8
64.3%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Siua Taufa for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
62.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
61.7%
Joe Hill run for 1 yd to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
61.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
62.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for no gain to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
63.1%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FG
17 plays · 39 yds · 5:4961% → 63%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
61.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
61.6%
HART, Dee rush for 2 yards to the CS33 (VIGIL, Nick;VIGIL, Zach), PENALTY USU offside (VIGIL, Nick) 5 yards to the CS36, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
62.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Ty Sambrailo) to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+3
61.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+3
61.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 3 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+9
61.1%
Garrett Grayson run for 9 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
63.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
62.2%
GRAYSON, Garrett pass incomplete to HIGGINS, Rashard, PENALTY USU pass interference (STEWART, Rashar) 15 yards to the USU39, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.8%
Charles Lovett pass incomplete to Dee HartSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Treyous Jarrells for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+8
61.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 8 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
62.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-8
62.2%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Jalen Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 19
OPP 35
0
59.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Jasen Oden Jr.Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 19
OPP 35
+52
62.7%
Jared Roberts 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.4%
Damoun Patterson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 16 Damoun Patterson fumbled, recovered by UthSt Darell GarretsonSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
60.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for no gain to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+18
61.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 18 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
60.8%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · -2 yds · 2:2664% → 61%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-15
63.5%
HART, Dee rush for 11 yards to the CS40 (GREEN, Torrey), PENALTY CS personal foul (WHITE, Jordan) 15 yards to the CS14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 25
OWN 14
-2
63.2%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 27
OWN 12
+11
63.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 16
OWN 23
+19
61.7%
Garrett Grayson run for 19 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
65.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Sam Carlson) to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
63.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
63.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-10
62.3%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Bryant Hayes for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 25
OWN 27
0
60.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
59.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 9 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.7%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
59.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 7 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.0%
Nick Vigil run for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-6
59.5%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+28
61.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 28 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
56.7%
Joe Hill run for 1 yd to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+1
56.7%
Rashad Hall run for 1 yd to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
57.2%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to JoJo Natson, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
59.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
62.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.7%
Dee Hart run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-8
63.4%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Nick Vigil for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+7
59.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 30 , JoJo Natson returns for 7 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.3%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Preston HodgesSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
58.8%
Joe Hill run for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
59.7%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Austin Stephens) to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+3
60.5%
Craig Harrison pass complete to JoJo Natson for 3 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
61.3%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0062% → 59%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
61.7%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Travis Seefeldt for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 17 Garrett Grayson fumbled, recovered by ColSt Sam Carlson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+9
61.2%
Dee Hart run for 9 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+10
59.8%
Garrett Grayson run for 10 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-4
64.7%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Jordan Nielsen for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-9
61.2%
Garrett Grayson sacked by B.J. Larsen for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
58.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 43 yds , JoJo Natson returns for no gain to the UthSt 29 JoJo Natson fumbled, recovered by UthSt JoJo NatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:3244% → 54%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
56.4%
Hunter Sharp run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+22
55.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 22 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
52.4%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Ronald Butler for 7 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
51.9%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Ronald Butler for 5 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
51.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (SteveO Michel) to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
50.6%
NATSON, JoJo rush for 2 yards to the CS16, out-of-bounds (JANUSKA, Nick), PENALTY USU holding (MOSLEY, Tyshon) 10 yards to the CS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+6
51.6%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 6 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+7
50.9%
Craig Harrison pass complete to Brian Suite for 7 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
51.3%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hayden Weichers, broken up by DeAndre ElliottSimilar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
45.8%
Nick Diaz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:3250% → 47%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
49.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Steven Walker) to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+1
48.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for 1 yd to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+13
48.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+5
52.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 5 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
53.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 19 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
56.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for 6 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-1
57.0%
Treyous Jarrells run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
54.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Steven WalkerSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
47.2%
Jared Roberts 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
38.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
37.3%
Joe Hill run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
39.2%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Preston HodgesSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+11
41.7%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 50 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 7:1343% → 62%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
43.3%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Zach Vigil for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 17
OWN 20
+5
42.3%
GRAYSON, Garrett pass complete to LOVETT, Charles for loss of 2 yards to the CS18 (ALI'IFUA, Ricky), PENALTY USU offside (FILIAGA, LT) 5 yards to the CS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+5
42.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+12
41.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 12 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
46.7%
Treyous Jarrells run for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
47.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 6 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
48.6%
Treyous Jarrells run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+8
47.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 8 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
48.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
50.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for 2 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
51.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 3 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+1
48.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
61.8%
Jared Roberts 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0049% → 45%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
51.4%
Craig Harrison run for 15 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
46.9%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Hayden WeichersSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
48.1%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
50.0%
Craig Harrison pass incomplete to JoJo Natson, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 41
-5
53.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, substitution infraction (NA) to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
54.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 52 yds, downed at the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 0:5858% → 95%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
58.2%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+17
57.9%
Dee Hart run for 17 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+46
56.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 46 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
65.3%
Garrett Grayson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-5
65.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+46
95.3%
Jared Roberts 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Jared Roberts 46 yd FG GOOD
+29.6
FG · Q4 1:50
Jared Roberts 46 yd FG GOOD
+23.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:56
Timeout UTAH ST, clock 01:56
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com