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FRES

Fresno State 27 at Boise State 37

BOIS
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2014 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-3.7BOIS 83.1%Kody Kroening 44 Yd Field GoalAWAY 20 - HOME 27 · Q3 2:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:41 · Kody Kroening 44 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+13.0Home team on offense+7.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score differential+1.9Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:23: Josh Harper 32 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +10.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 9:13: Shane Williams-Rhodes 21 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Dan Goodale Kick) — BOIS win probability +6.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:41: Kody Kroening 44 Yd Field Goal — FRES win probability +3.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:57: Marteze Waller 3 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +19.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:11: Grant Hedrick 9 Yd pass from Thomas Sperbeck (Dan Goodale Kick) — BOIS win probability +23.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:33BOIS 4th & 7 at FRES 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:07FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22FRES 4th & 11 at BOIS 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:50BOIS 4th & 7 at FRES 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:17BOIS 4th & 6 at FRES 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:23FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:01FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:18BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:34FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 28, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:57BOIS 4th & 14 at FRES 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 35, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:41FRES 4th & 10 at BOIS 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:15BOIS 4th & 2 at FRES 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−5.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:41BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−6.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−26.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:53FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:00BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:38FRES 4th & 18 at FRES 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:41BOIS 4th & 7 at FRES 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:14BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:32FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:25BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:23FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:13BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:57FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:11BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2088% → 87%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
87.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 7 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
87.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 13 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
87.2%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+4
87.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
87.0%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Shannon EdwardsSimilar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
86.9%
Sean Wale punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2113% → 14%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.8%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
86.7%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
86.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 4 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+1
86.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:3686% → 87%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
86.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+9
86.4%
Grant Hedrick run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
86.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+49
86.1%
Shane Williams-Rhodes run for 49 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.2%
Jay Ajayi 9 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:3813% → 15%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.8%
Brian Burrell run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
86.5%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
86.6%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
86.4%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.2%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+33
86.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 33 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
85.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
85.7%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
85.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
85.2%
Kody Kroening 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:1085% → 86%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
85.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 15 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
85.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
85.6%
Grant Hedrick run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
85.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 20 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
85.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
85.4%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
85.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
86.2%
Dan Goodale 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
83.1%
Marteze Waller 76 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:4884% → 84%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
83.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+29
84.1%
Thomas Sperbeck pass complete to Troy Ware for 29 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
84.2%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (NA) to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-5
83.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Marcus Henry) to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+15
83.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 15 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-1
83.7%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Charles Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
83.6%
Dan Goodale 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:3717% → 17%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
83.4%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
83.5%
Burrell, Brian pass sacked for loss of 1 yards to the FRESNOST17 (Nance, Armand), PENALTY BOISEST neutral zone infraction 5 yards to the FRESNOST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+1
83.1%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+4
83.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
82.9%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.9%
Brian Burrell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
82.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Dillon RootSimilar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+6
83.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 6 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3582% → 86%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
82.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+36
83.5%
Grant Hedrick run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Charles Washington) to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.4%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
83.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 6 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+9
82.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Holden Huff for 9 yds Holden Huff fumbled, forced by Karl Mickelsen, recovered by BoiSt Jake Hardee for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
83.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
83.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
82.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
82.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.4%
Jay Ajayi 3 Yd Run (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5914% → 14%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.9%
Brandon Connette run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
86.0%
Brandon Connette run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
86.2%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gabe Perez) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
85.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Donte Deayon for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Shane Williams-Rhodes at the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3286% → 85%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
86.2%
Thomas Sperbeck run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
86.6%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-3
86.1%
Jay Ajayi run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
85.3%
Sean Wale punt for 38 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2614% → 14%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
85.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Tyler Gray for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+11
86.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 11 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
85.7%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
86.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 31 yds, downed at the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2587% → 85%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jeremy McNichols, broken up by Curtis RileySimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
86.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+8
86.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
87.2%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Tyeler Davison for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+5
85.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
85.8%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Curtis RileySimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
85.1%
Sean Wale punt for 37 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:4514% → 14%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
85.6%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 2
OWN 18
0
85.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+8
85.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
85.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 6 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
85.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
86.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Shane Williams-Rhodes at the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3714% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Armand Nance) to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+38
84.9%
Marteze Waller run for 38 yds to the BoiSt 32 Marteze Waller fumbled, forced by Donte Deayon, recovered by FrsSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
75.0%
Josh Harper 32 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:0080% → 88%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
79.7%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+15
78.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 15 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
80.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
80.5%
Devan Demas run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+9
79.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
80.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
80.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-5
79.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Mario Yakoo) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+7
79.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Troy Ware for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
80.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
80.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+21
87.5%
Shane Williams-Rhodes 21 Yd pass from Grant Hedrick (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17FUMBLE
18 plays · 56 yds · 6:1414% → 17%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
86.5%
Brian Burrell sacked by Tyler Gray for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+3
86.8%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+14
87.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 14 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.3%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-1
85.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+10
87.2%
Brian Burrell run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
86.7%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
86.5%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+12
87.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for 12 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
86.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 2 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
86.0%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh Harper, broken up by Donte DeayonSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+8
86.9%
Brian Burrell run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
85.8%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
85.8%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-3
86.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Kamalei Correa for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
83.1%
Kody Kroening 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0321% → 40%
Q3 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
78.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.7%
Marteze Waller 3 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:1970% → 92%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
69.9%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
70.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
70.1%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
71.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 7 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
71.4%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
71.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+14
69.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 14 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.6%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
73.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+10
71.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 10 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
73.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+8
72.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
70.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
68.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.7%
Grant Hedrick 9 Yd pass from Thomas Sperbeck (Dan Goodale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0714% → 12%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
86.1%
Dillon Root run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 49 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for no gain to the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3091% → 91%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
90.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
91.2%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+3
90.7%
Grant Hedrick run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+12
91.0%
Sean Wale punt for 44 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 12 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5212% → 9%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
88.0%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
87.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-10
88.5%
Brian Burrell sacked by Elliot Hoyte for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
90.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Shane Williams-Rhodes at the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:3993% → 96%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
93.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
94.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+54
94.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 54 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.7%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
96.0%
Grant Hedrick run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
96.2%
Dan Goodale 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:173% → 3%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Bo Bonnheim) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
97.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
97.2%
Brian Burrell run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
97.0%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Donte Deayon return for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:0097% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 46
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:11
Grant Hedrick 9 Yd pass from Thomas Sperbeck (Dan Goodale Kick)
+23.4
TD · Q3 1:57
Marteze Waller 3 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)
-19.1
TD · Q3 14:23
Josh Harper 32 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com