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UNM

New Mexico 31 at Air Force 35

AF
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:01 · Will Conant punt for 49 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+5.7Home team on offense+8.5Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:04: Jhurell Pressley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +8.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:21: D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +10.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:39: Teriyon Gipson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +18.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:48: D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +21.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:35: Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 50 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +14.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 6:12UNM 4th & 6 at AF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:52AF 4th & 6 at AF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:51UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:38AF 4th & 6 at UNM 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:33UNM 4th & 13 at AF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:19UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:26AF 4th & 4 at AF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.1%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:41UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:35UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 2 at AF 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−4.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:01UNM 4th & 3 at AF 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.2
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−12.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:01AF 4th & 7 at UNM 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:08UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:06AF 4th & 9 at UNM 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:45UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−5.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:09AF 4th & 20 at UNM 23, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:12UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:12AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:28AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:04UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:21AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:39UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:48AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:35AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4823% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.2%
Cole Gautsche run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
77.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
77.2%
Romell Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+24
77.2%
Carlos Wiggins run for 24 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
77.2%
Cole Gautsche run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+42
75.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 42 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:0076% → 76%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.7%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
75.9%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
75.8%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
75.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
75.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
50
+1
75.9%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the NMex 49Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+8
75.9%
Kale Pearson run for 8 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.0%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
76.0%
Garrett Brown run for 9 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
76.0%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
76.0%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
76.0%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
76.0%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
76.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
76.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+4
76.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
76.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
74.8%
Cole Gautsche pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 26 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
74.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+8
74.0%
Romell Jordan run for 8 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
73.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
73.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-1
74.1%
Carlos Wiggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
74.5%
Cole Gautsche pass incomplete to Jhurell PressleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
74.1%
Kale Pearson run for 14 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
74.9%
Garrett Brown run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
74.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
74.6%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
73.9%
Will Conant punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2727% → 27%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
73.2%
Romell Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+5
73.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+5
73.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
72.6%
Cole Gautsche run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
72.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-3
73.0%
Cole Gautsche run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 21 Cole Gautsche fumbled, recovered by AFA Weston SteelhammerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
78.6%
Kale Pearson run for 21 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3723% → 22%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Cole Gautsche pass incomplete to Tyler DuncanSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
78.1%
Cole Gautsche pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
78.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 41 yds, downed at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
78.2%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+9
78.0%
Kale Pearson run for 9 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+25
78.5%
Kale Pearson run for 25 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
79.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
79.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-2
78.9%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 6
OPP 33
-9
78.2%
Kale Pearson sacked by Tevin Newman for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:5323% → 31%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
77.3%
Ridge Jones run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 2
50
+50
68.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FUMBLE TD
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:3673% → 63%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.7%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
72.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
73.5%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
74.1%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
74.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
74.5%
Kale Pearson run for 7 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
74.5%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-2
74.6%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+43
63.0%
Kale Pearson sacked by Tre'Von Roy for a loss of 14 yards Kale Pearson fumbled, recovered by NMex David Guthrie , return for 0 yards , return for 43 yds, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0761% → 74%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
60.6%
Shayne Davern run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
62.5%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 6
50
+3
63.2%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
63.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
63.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+34
63.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 34 yds to the NMex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 2:4332% → 34%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
67.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
67.0%
Cole Gautsche pass complete to Marquis Bundy for 1 yd to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
67.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
65.6%
Cole Gautsche run for 32 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
62.4%
Cole Gautsche pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
62.6%
Cole Gautsche run for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-3
63.7%
Cole Gautsche sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
66.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
68.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.9%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
68.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
67.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
67.5%
Will Conant punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
63.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
62.9%
Cole Gautsche run for no gain to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+1
64.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+13
65.7%
Zack Rogers punt for 46 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 13 yds to the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
67.4%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
67.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
66.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Jadon BoatrightSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
66.1%
Will Conant punt for 36 yds, downed at the NMex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:3937% → 57%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
63.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
61.9%
Cole Gautsche run for 6 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
61.4%
Romell Jordan run for 29 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
42.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5148% → 71%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
48.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
48.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
47.7%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+63
49.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 63 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
62.1%
Cole Gautsche sacked by Spencer Proctor for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+2
62.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
63.7%
Cole Gautsche pass incomplete to Tyler DuncanSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+5
65.1%
Zack Rogers punt for 49 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 5 yds to the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:3466% → 83%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
65.5%
Shayne Davern run for 12 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
66.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
68.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
50
0
68.9%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
50
+50
83.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 50 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 6:3422% → 32%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
78.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
78.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
78.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+18
78.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for 18 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
75.6%
Cole Gautsche run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 9
50
+8
75.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-1
76.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+26
78.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 26 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
74.6%
Cole Gautsche run for 3 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+4
76.2%
Cole Gautsche run for 4 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
68.3%
Zack Rogers 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
74.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
77.0%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
76.0%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
77.1%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
77.5%
Kale Pearson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
76.3%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett Brown, broken up by Devonta TabannahSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
73.6%
Will Conant punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.1%
Romell Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
71.4%
Romell Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
72.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
70.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
70.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+2
72.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 2 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
73.1%
Zack Rogers punt for 37 yds, downed at the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:5879% → 87%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
79.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
80.4%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+7
79.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
81.3%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
81.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+2
81.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
82.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
82.0%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
88.4%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
86.9%
Will Conant punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0620% → 12%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
80.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+6
80.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-1
80.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 12
+1
87.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · -13 yds · 1:3193% → 95%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
93.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 17Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 14
OPP 17
-3
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 20Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 17
OPP 20
-3
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 20
OPP 23
-3
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
90.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 14 yds to the NMex 1 lat. to Tyler Duncan for a loss of 20 yards Tyler Duncan fumbled, recovered by AFA Gavin McHenry , return for 19 yds to the NMex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+21.2
TD · Q3 8:39
Teriyon Gipson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q3 3:35
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 50 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com