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FRES

Fresno State 27 at UNLV 30

UNLV
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2014 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:59 · Nicolai Bornand punt for 49 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 14 yds to the FrsSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 164Pregame prior−3.8Home team on offense+7.0Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:56: Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 27 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +18.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 0:02: Blake Decker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +18.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:47: Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +21.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:21: Marteze Waller run for 13 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening MISSED), — FRES win probability +29.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Nicolai Bornand 33 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +19.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 12FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 10:49UNLV 4th & 4 at FRES 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:02UNLV 4th & 3 at FRES 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:40FRES 4th & 10 at UNLV 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:16FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:54FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:50FRES 4th & 10 at UNLV 26, down 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−8.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:54UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:29UNLV 4th & 8 at FRES 47, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:17FRES 4th & 2 at UNLV 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−1.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:01UNLV 4th & 1 at midfield, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:38UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 26, up 10
    Close callPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:10FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:59UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:46FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:55UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:21FRES 4th & 1 at UNLV 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−5.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−4.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:41UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−3.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:59UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:21FRES 4th & 1 at UNLV 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−1.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−17.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:21UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.6%−6.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:37UNLV 4th & 14 at FRES 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−9.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−16.3
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:32FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:00UNLV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:56UNLV Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:45FRES Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:56FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:02UNLV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:47FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1128% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
28.3%
UNLV Penalty, false start (N/A) to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+5
28.3%
Blake Decker run for 5 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
28.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 2 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+13
28.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 13 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
28.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 11 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+38
28.3%
Keith Whitely run for 38 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
28.3%
Blake Decker sacked by Maurice Poyadue and Donavon Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+4
28.3%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+3
28.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 3 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
30.8%
Jonathan Leiva 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
30.6%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+4
30.7%
LeKendrick Williams run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
30.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for no gain to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+11
30.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 43 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for 11 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
31.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
32.1%
UNLV Penalty, false start (N/A) to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+12
31.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 12 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
32.2%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
32.3%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
32.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Curtis RileySimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
31.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+41
33.2%
Marteze Waller run for 41 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
32.4%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-10
32.4%
WALLER, Marteze rush for 17 yards to the LV28 (PENNY, Kenneth), PENALTY FS holding (NORTHERN, Justi) 10 yards to the FS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+7
33.0%
Dillon Root run for 7 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
32.8%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
33.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the UNLV 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
33.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+6
33.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 6 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+9
33.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 9 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
33.8%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Charles Washington return for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
34.9%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-1
34.9%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+5
35.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
35.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 40 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for no gain to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:0236% → 44%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
35.9%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
35.9%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+11
36.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Jake Phillips for 11 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+56
37.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 56 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
38.3%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
43.1%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
43.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
43.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+5
44.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 20 yds, downed at the FrsSt 41 FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:1445% → 59%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
44.9%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to SULLIVAN, M., PENALTY FS pass interference (WASHINGTON, Cha) 15 yards to the FS11, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
44.9%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
44.9%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
58.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 5 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0044% → 47%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
56.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 22 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
55.0%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+16
54.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 16 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
54.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 10 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
53.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
53.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Dillon RootSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
54.7%
Brian Burrell run for no gain to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+11
55.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 11 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
53.4%
Brian Burrell run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 37 Brian Burrell fumbled, recovered by UNLV Najee JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
63.7%
MURRAY-LAWRENCE rush for 4 yards to the LV41, out-of-bounds (ELLIS, Jamal), PENALTY LV holding (WATERMAN, R.) 10 yards to the LV27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
63.4%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for no gain to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+5
63.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+11
62.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 11 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
62.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 56 yds, downed at the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.6%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Brandon Baker return for no gain to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
67.0%
Blake Decker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
66.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Jamal EllisSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-2
66.2%
Blake Decker sacked by Kyrie Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+9
64.9%
Taylor Barnhill run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 43 Nicolai BornandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0036% → 38%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
63.8%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
62.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 2 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
62.8%
Brian Burrell run for 5 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
62.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 12 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
61.6%
Brian Burrell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
61.2%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
62.4%
Brian Burrell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 2
OPP 24
-2
62.5%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 4:1668% → 72%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
67.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Derron Smith) to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
68.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
68.7%
Blake Decker run for 5 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-10
67.8%
DECKER, Blake rush for 5 yards to the FS46 (DAVISON, Tyeler), PENALTY LV holding (OBERG, Andrew) 10 yards to the LV39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+11
67.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 1
50
0
71.7%
Logan Yunker punt for 47 yds, downed at the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
70.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+7
70.9%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1528% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
71.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 21 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
69.8%
Brian Burrell run for 13 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
68.7%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
57.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 29 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
61.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 9 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+2
61.8%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
61.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor Barnhill, broken up by Derron SmithSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
61.5%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
60.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+42
59.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 42 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
62.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for 4 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
62.2%
Brian Burrell run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
63.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh Harper, broken up by Mike HorseySimilar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 5
OWN 36
-5
64.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 49 yds , Jay Mitchell returns for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
65.1%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
64.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 2 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+8
63.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 8 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
65.3%
Blake Decker sacked by Todd Hunt and Donavon Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+6
64.8%
Keith Whitely run for 6 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
64.0%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
63.1%
Logan Yunker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
66.9%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
66.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
67.0%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
68.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
70.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 7 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
71.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-1
70.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+4
68.8%
Nicolai Bornand punt for 40 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 4 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:2530% → 50%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
69.9%
Brian Burrell sacked by Peni Vea and Jordan Sparkman for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+16
70.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 16 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
68.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
69.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 9 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
69.6%
Brian Burrell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
67.6%
QUEZADA, Josh rush for no gain to the LV36 (HUGHES, Mike), PENALTY FS holding (BONNHEIM, BO) 10 yards to the LV46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+3
68.7%
Brian Burrell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+8
69.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 8 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+10
68.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 10 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
65.6%
BURRELL, Brian pass complete to WILLIAMS, LeKen for loss of 1 yard to the LV26 (LOTULELEI, Tau;HORSEY, Mike), PENALTY FS illegal block (QUEZADA, Josh) 15 yards to the LV40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+13
68.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 13 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+27
50.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 27 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:5458% → 81%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
57.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 20 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
61.7%
Blake Decker run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
62.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 31 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.4%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1521% → 48%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by Kenneth PennySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.1%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
80.0%
BURRELL, Brian pass incomplete to HARDAWAY, Delvo (PENNY, Kenneth), PENALTY LV pass interference (PENNY, Kenneth) 7 yards to the FS33, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+58
77.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 58 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
73.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 4 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
73.1%
UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Kenneth Penny) to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
62.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 1 yd to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
62.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 5 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+6
61.2%
Blake Decker run for 6 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
63.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Marcus SullivanSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
62.6%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
60.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by Curtis RileySimilar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
59.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 35 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for no gain to the FrsSt 41 LeKendrick Williams fumbled, recovered by FrsSt LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27INT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0042% → 46%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
58.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+18
59.4%
Dillon Root run for 18 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
55.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 4 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
55.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
53.6%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Kenneth Penny return for 7 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
66.5%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
66.6%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
65.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Curtis RileySimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+14
63.4%
Nicolai Bornand punt for 49 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 14 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:1339% → 71%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
61.0%
Marteze Waller run for 41 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
54.4%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
54.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
59.2%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
29.3%
Marteze Waller run for 13 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening MISSED),Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 30FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:4439% → 55%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
39.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
42.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 5 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
41.9%
Blake Decker run for no gain to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
40.3%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by Derron SmithSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+29
40.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 29 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
47.4%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-3
47.4%
Blake Decker sacked by TEAM for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-4
43.9%
Blake Decker sacked by Donavon Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
54.9%
Nicolai Bornand 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
49.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
49.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Kenneth PennySimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+8
51.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
51.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 32MISSED FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 2:3058% → 67%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
58.3%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
60.0%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-5
59.7%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Andrew Oberg) to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+20
56.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 20 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
63.6%
Keith Whitely run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+4
65.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
64.8%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
64.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Keith WhitelySimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+9
63.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
66.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+19
65.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 19 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.1%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+26
66.6%
Jonathan Leiva 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 33DOWNS
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0051% → 46%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
49.7%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 22Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-4
52.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
54.3%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 34FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.7%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
64.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 5 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
62.3%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
78.8%
Nicolai Bornand 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:21
Marteze Waller run for 13 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening MISSED),
-29.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+21.2
TD · Q4 13:47
Brian Burrell pass complete to Chad Olsen for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com