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AF

Air Force 16 at Utah State 34

USU
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+2.9USU 86.6%Nick Diaz 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 24 · Q2 3:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:01 · Nick Diaz 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense+14.1Pregame prior+10.7Score differential+5.6Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:04: Nick Vigil run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +7.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:01: Nick Diaz 46 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +2.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:47: Darell Garretson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +6.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:21: Shayne Davern run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:07: Will Conant 22 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +2.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9AF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:38USU 4th & 9 at USU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:18AF 4th & 6 at USU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−3.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, up 11
    Close callPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:13AF 4th & 6 at USU 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, up 8
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:39USU 4th & 8 at AF 35, up 8
    Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:08AF 4th & 12 at AF 18, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:01USU 4th & 10 at AF 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:43AF 4th & 9 at AF 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 6 at AF 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:33USU 4th & 6 at AF 32, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:58AF 4th & 1 at USU 10, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00USU 4th & 7 at USU 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:07AF 4th & 4 at USU 4, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:46AF 4th & 17 at AF 48, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:15USU 4th & 8 at AF 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:07AF 4th & 22 at USU 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:27USU 4th & 5 at USU 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:52AF 4th & 4 at USU 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:46USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:45USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:04USU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:47USU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:21AF Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
69.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 75 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.4%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
69.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 17 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
69.4%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43 D.J. Johnson fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jordan NielsenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 2:0970% → 71%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
69.6%
Nick Vigil pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 12 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
69.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
69.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 8 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
71.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
70.9%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+58
70.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 58 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
70.5%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+11
70.5%
Kale Pearson run for 11 yds Kale Pearson fumbled, forced by Jalen Davis, recovered by UthStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
72.1%
Nick Vigil run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
72.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+2
71.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 2 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+4
71.8%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 51 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 4 yds to the AFA 25 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:4027% → 28%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
72.8%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+15
72.9%
PEARSON, Kale pass incomplete to BROWN, Garrett, PENALTY USU personal foul 15 yards to the AF40, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
72.6%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
72.6%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+22
73.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 22 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.3%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+22
72.4%
Garrett Brown run for 9 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.1%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
72.1%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+1
72.4%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 9Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
71.7%
Will Conant 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
72.2%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
72.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 7 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
72.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 3 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.8%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 36 yds , Garrett Brown returns for no gain to the AFA 30 Garrett Brown fumbled, recovered by AFA Garrett BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:5328% → 28%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
72.2%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+27
72.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 27 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
71.4%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
71.5%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett Griffin, broken up by LT FiliagaSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+20
71.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 20 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
70.8%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-5
70.8%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+7
72.1%
Garrett Brown run for 7 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
72.2%
Will Conant 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.0%
Joe Hill run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
72.0%
Joe Hill run for 6 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
72.0%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
73.3%
Kale Pearson run for 11 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
73.1%
Kale Pearson pass intercepted Frankie Sutera return for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
74.0%
Darell Garretson run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
74.0%
Hunter Sharp run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
73.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
72.5%
Jake Thompson punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
73.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
73.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-3
74.1%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
74.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
75.2%
Will Conant punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:1275% → 83%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 6 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
75.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
75.5%
Nick Vigil pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-15
75.4%
GARRETSON, Dare pass incomplete (DECOUD, Justin), PENALTY USU personal foul 15 yards to the USU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 24
OWN 39
+39
74.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 39 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
75.6%
Nick Vigil run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+17
75.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 17 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
75.6%
JoJo Natson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.6%
Nick Vigil run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
80.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+19
80.1%
Nate Romine pass intercepted Nick Vigil return for 19 yds to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2584% → 87%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Devonte Robinson, broken up by Jordan MaysSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
84.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Joe HillSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
83.7%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo Natson, broken up by Christian SpearsSimilar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
86.6%
Nick Diaz 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1016% → 15%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
84.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
84.2%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-3
84.5%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+18
85.2%
Will Conant punt for 41 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 18 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:4687% → 94%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
87.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hayden Weichers for 18 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
87.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
86.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+13
86.2%
Darell Garretson run for 13 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
86.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo Natson, broken up by Christian SpearsSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.5%
Darell Garretson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
83.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
83.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.0%
Garrett Brown run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
93.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
93.9%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
94.1%
Will Conant punt for 42 yds, downed at the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 31 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
96.1%
HILL, Joe rush for 9 yards to the USU38 (STEELHAMMER, We), PENALTY AF personal foul off-setting, PENALTY USU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
96.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
96.1%
Darell Garretson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
96.1%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-2
96.3%
Darell Garretson sacked by Dillon Beschel for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+9
96.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 9 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
96.3%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
96.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 6 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
96.1%
Rashad Hall run for 4 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
96.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hayden Weichers for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-2
96.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-2
96.3%
Darell Garretson sacked by Spencer Proctor for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 6
OPP 32
-8
96.0%
Darell Garretson sacked by Troy Timmerman for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:103% → 6%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.3%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
97.3%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+12
97.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Alex Ludowig for 12 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.0%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
98.0%
Kale Pearson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+16
98.0%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 16 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jon Lee for 7 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-8
97.5%
Devin Rushing run for 2 yds to the UthSt 21 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+12
97.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 12 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
97.7%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the UthSt 19Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
97.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+9
97.9%
Kale Pearson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
97.8%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.9%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1696% → 96%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
96.4%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
96.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
96.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Justin DeCoudSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
96.1%
Jaron Bentrude punt blocked by Jacob Onyechi blocked by Jacob OnyechiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:366% → 7%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
94.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 5 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
94.1%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
94.5%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
94.1%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.1%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Shayne Davern, broken up by LT FiliagaSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
93.1%
Will Conant 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
95.9%
JoJo Natson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 45 JoJo Natson fumbled, forced by Troy Timmerman, recovered by AFA Troy TimmermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
93.6%
Kale Pearson sacked by Zach Vigil and Jordan Nielsen for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 15
50
-5
94.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+3
94.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 17
OWN 48
0
94.4%
Kale Pearson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
94.4%
Will Conant punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26FG
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:5296% → 98%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+61
96.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Joe Hill for 61 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
96.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 3 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
96.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-1
96.5%
Darell Garretson sacked by Troy Timmerman for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
97.9%
Nick Diaz 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
97.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
97.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 8 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
97.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 26 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
96.9%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 10 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 20
OPP 47
-2
97.1%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 22
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Will Conant punt for 33 yds, downed at the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
98.5%
Joe Hill run for 14 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.5%
Rashad Hall run for 3 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-1
98.8%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+3
98.8%
JoJo Natson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
98.7%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.4%
Devin Rushing run for 7 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
99.3%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
99.3%
Colin Sandor run for 4 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Nate Romine sacked by Frankie Sutera for 0 yards to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jon Lee for 5 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+24
99.3%
Paco Solano run for 24 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.3%
Nate Romine pass complete to Myles Barnes for 6 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
99.0%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Deshane HinesSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
99.1%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Marcus Hendricks, broken up by Brian SuiteSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+5
99.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Matt Galland for 5 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:04
Nick Vigil run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 0:47
Darell Garretson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q3 0:21
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com