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NAVY

Navy 21 at Air Force 30

AF
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:45 · Will Conant punt for 38 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 1 yd to the Navy 29 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Navy 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense+2.9Pregame prior−8.0Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:52: Jalen Robinette pass complete to Garrett Brown for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +5.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:35: Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:14: Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +17.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:27: Will Conant 22 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +6.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 40 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +27.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:16AF 4th & 7 at AF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:45AF 4th & 17 at AF 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:47NAVY 4th & 3 at AF 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:35AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 7 at AF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−7.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:14NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:17AF 4th & 4 at AF 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:35NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−4.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:53AF 4th & 3 at AF 18, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:59NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:34NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:27AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−6.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:35AF 4th & 2 at NAVY 13, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%−0.7
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−20.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:35NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:23AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:59NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:52AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:35NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:14AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:14NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
39.1%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
39.1%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.1%
Pablo Beltran punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
39.8%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
39.9%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
39.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
39.7%
Will Conant punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FUMBLE
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
40.2%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
40.1%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
40.1%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
40.0%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+8
40.2%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
39.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
39.9%
Dishan Romine run for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
39.9%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
39.8%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Dexter Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+2
39.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the AFA 41 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by AFA Nick FitzgeraldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:3142% → 47%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
42.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 8 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+48
42.6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 48 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
42.9%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Alex Ludowig for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2454% → 59%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
45.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
45.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
45.1%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
45.1%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
45.1%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+46
41.4%
Chris Swain run for 46 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:0243% → 50%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
43.1%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
43.1%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+4
42.5%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+15
42.3%
NAVY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
44.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
44.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+54
49.6%
Jalen Robinette pass complete to Garrett Brown for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7INT
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:5251% → 52%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.6%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+53
47.6%
Noah Copeland run for 53 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
46.7%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+1
46.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
47.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass intercepted, touchback. Christian Spears return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
50.6%
Kale Pearson run for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
51.2%
Broam Hart run for 7 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
50.6%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-5
49.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
49.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+1
49.2%
Will Conant punt for 38 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 1 yd to the Navy 29 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1249% → 58%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
50.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 22 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
49.5%
NAVY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-1
50.3%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+15
50.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the AFA 44 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
48.4%
Dishan Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
48.4%
Noah Copeland run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+2
49.4%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+5
50.3%
Demond Brown run for 5 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
48.4%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
48.4%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
42.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
48.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
47.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
47.4%
Will Conant punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:4155% → 56%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
45.0%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
44.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+11
46.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 26 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
43.3%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+11
43.1%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 11 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
42.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+21
42.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Geoffrey Whiteside for 21 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
41.7%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-3
41.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+3
42.3%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
44.0%
Nick Sloan 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:4649% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.1%
Broam Hart run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
49.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
49.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
50.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
51.4%
Devin Rushing run for 11 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
52.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
52.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
53.2%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
53.2%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
52.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
53.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
53.2%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
52.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
53.2%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.3%
Demond Brown run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
63.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
64.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Dishan Romine, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
65.6%
Pablo Beltran punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
68.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
67.9%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+3
66.7%
Broam Hart run for 3 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+52
65.7%
Will Conant punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the AIRFORCE 39 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
66.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 15 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
64.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
62.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
50
-9
62.1%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Connor Healy for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 19
OWN 41
0
65.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 19
OWN 41
0
66.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Geoffrey WhitesideSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 19
OWN 41
0
67.9%
Pablo Beltran punt for 46 yds , Jalen Robinette returns for no gain to the AFA 11 Jalen Robinette fumbled, recovered by AFA Jon LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
71.9%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-5
71.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+2
71.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+6
70.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
69.5%
Will Conant punt for 41 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
67.4%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
66.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Navy 46 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Navy Keenan ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-2
66.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
70.2%
Pablo Beltran punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:1579% → 79%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
79.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
80.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
79.9%
Garrett Brown run for 14 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
81.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
81.3%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Alex Ludowig, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+5
79.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
79.3%
Will Conant punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.6%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
76.8%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
77.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
78.6%
Pablo Beltran punt for 38 yds, downed at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:3283% → 91%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
83.2%
Kale Pearson run for 14 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
85.0%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 5 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
85.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
84.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
85.5%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
85.7%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
84.7%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
85.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+10
85.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
85.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-2
85.7%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+2
84.8%
Dexter Walker run for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
91.2%
Will Conant 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:138% → 32%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
90.2%
Noah Copeland run for no gain to the Navy 34 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
91.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 8 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
90.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
90.6%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+26
95.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 26 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
68.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 40 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:3590% → 96%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
89.6%
Kale Pearson run for 11 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
89.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+7
91.7%
Kale Pearson run for 7 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
94.4%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+13
96.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 13 yds for a TD, (Kale Pearson failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Brendan DudeckSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.1%
Tago Smith pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
96.9%
Tago Smith pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 7 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:14
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 40 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)
-27.3
TD · Q3 9:14
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q2 6:35
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com