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USU

Utah State 35 at BYU 20

BYU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2014 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 41 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:40: Darell Garretson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +7.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:27: Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +12.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:55: Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +12.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:39: Trevor Samson 41 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +5.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:49: Nick Vigil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +21.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:23BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:39USU 4th & 9 at USU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:23BYU 4th & 15 at USU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:40BYU 4th & 7 at USU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:55USU 4th & 5 at USU 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:18USU 4th & 10 at USU 2, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−5.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:39BYU 4th & 9 at USU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−7.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:54USU 4th & 14 at BYU 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:12USU 4th & 5 at USU 19, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:39BYU 4th & 6 at USU 6, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:00USU 4th & 6 at USU 44, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:32BYU 4th & 15 at BYU 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:25USU 4th & 19 at BYU 37, up 15
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:32BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 45, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:10USU 4th & 3 at BYU 45, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:50USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:06BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:40USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:27USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:55USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:49USU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5892% → 92%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
91.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 53 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
91.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 4 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+7
91.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
91.7%
Taysom Hill run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:158% → 9%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.6%
Nick Vigil run for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
91.5%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
91.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 15 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
91.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 20 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.1%
Joe Hill run for no gain to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
91.0%
Joe Hill run for 5 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-12
91.0%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 36 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by BYU Jordan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4491% → 91%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-2
91.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
91.0%
Scott Arellano punt for 43 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:379% → 9%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.0%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
91.0%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 18Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-5
91.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+8
90.9%
Joe Hill run for 8 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+30
90.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 34 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:0491% → 90%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
91.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
91.0%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
90.9%
Taysom Hill sacked by Elvis Kamana-Matagi for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 17
OPP 47
-5
90.7%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 22
OWN 48
0
90.7%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 22
OWN 48
+7
90.5%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
90.2%
Scott Arellano punt for 30 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:1810% → 14%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
90.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 15 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
90.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
90.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 12 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
89.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+22
89.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 22 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
89.2%
Nick Vigil run for 5 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+6
88.9%
Nick Vigil run for 6 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
88.8%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd to the BYU 5Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
88.6%
Darell Garretson sacked by Remington Peck for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3988% → 90%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
87.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
87.1%
Taysom Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
87.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 9 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
87.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 9 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for no gain to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
87.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
87.2%
Taysom Hill run for 4 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
89.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 25 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
18 plays · 88 yds · 8:1411% → 22%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
88.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wyatt Houston) to the UthSt 6Similar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+2
88.8%
Joe Hill run for 2 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+9
88.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Joe Hill for 9 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+7
88.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 7 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
88.3%
Nick Vigil run for 11 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
88.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 36 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
86.7%
JoJo Natson run for 6 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-5
86.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Taani Fisilau) to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
86.6%
Kennedy Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+4
87.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 4 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+5
87.5%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
86.1%
Rashad Hall run for 4 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
85.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ronald Butler for 5 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
85.9%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
85.1%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.6%
Darell Garretson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
82.4%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 22 Jamaal Williams fumbled, recovered by UthStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
70.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:4073% → 70%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
73.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 6 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
72.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 13 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
74.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
73.6%
Taysom Hill run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+4
73.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-6
72.0%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Tuni Kanuch) to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
70.2%
Scott Arellano punt for 36 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:3131% → 44%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
69.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+11
68.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 11 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
56.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:1157% → 56%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
57.0%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (De'Ondre Wesley) to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+1
55.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:4546% → 54%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.5%
Nick Vigil run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
53.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 9 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
50.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 4 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-5
48.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+2
48.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Joe Hill for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-5
47.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Kevin Whimpey) to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+9
48.2%
Kennedy Williams run for 9 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
46.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15INT
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:1748% → 47%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
47.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+7
47.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
47.1%
Christian Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+15
45.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 15 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
46.3%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
46.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+37
45.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 37 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
48.4%
Christian Stewart run for 1 yd to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
46.5%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted Torrey Green return for no gain to the UthSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5161% → 65%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
38.7%
Nick Vigil run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
38.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+1
35.5%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd to the UthSt 2Similar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+4
35.2%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 40 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for 4 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2941% → 43%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
41.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+10
41.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 10 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
41.1%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
39.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jamaal Williams for 1 yd to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
36.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
42.7%
Trevor Samson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:1658% → 88%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
41.7%
Joe Hill run for 9 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
40.7%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+56
39.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 56 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
35.0%
Joe Hill run for no gain to the BYU 8Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
34.3%
BYU Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jherremya Leuta-Douyere) to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.2%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.4%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2019% → 18%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.1%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
18.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+34
18.4%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted Devin Centers return for 34 yds to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4889% → 90%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
10.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to JoJo Natson for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+3
10.8%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
9.4%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
10.3%
Jake Thompson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21INT
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:1516% → 13%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
16.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rashard Stewart) to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
16.5%
Christian Stewart run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
14.4%
Christian Stewart run for 7 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
14.3%
Paul Lasike run for 5 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
13.4%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
13.1%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+11
12.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
15.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
14.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Adam Hine for 4 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+33
12.9%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted Frankie Sutera return for 21 yds to the UthSt 7 UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4894% → 96%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
5.8%
Joe Hill run for 4 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+3
5.1%
Nick Vigil run for 3 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-2
4.6%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+1
4.2%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 40 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for 1 yd to the BYU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:298% → 11%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
8.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+28
7.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 28 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
9.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+20
8.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 20 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
8.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 4 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
12.8%
Trevor Samson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-5
10.8%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3295% → 95%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
5.1%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
5.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+4
5.1%
Joe Hill run for 4 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+4
4.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 34 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for 4 yds to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2810% → 9%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
9.8%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Tejan Koroma) to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
9.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
9.1%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
8.9%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
8.7%
Scott Arellano punt for 37 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:2896% → 97%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
4.0%
Joe Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
3.8%
Joe Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
3.5%
Nick Vigil run for 4 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+10
3.2%
Nick Vigil run for 10 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
3.0%
Nick Vigil run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
3.1%
Nick Vigil run for no gain to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-3
2.8%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 14
OPP 32
-5
3.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 19
OPP 37
0
2.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 20 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Juergens at the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:284% → 3%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
3.9%
Christian Stewart sacked by Torrey Green for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 8Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 19
OWN 8
+26
3.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 26 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
3.6%
Christian Stewart run for 6 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
3.6%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
3.3%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
3.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+7
3.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 7 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1298% → 99%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
1.6%
Joe Hill run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
1.1%
Rashad Hall run for no gain to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+6
1.1%
Rashad Hall run for 6 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
1.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 41 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
2.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 41 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:49
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q2 0:55
Darell Garretson pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q2 4:27
Darell Garretson pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com