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FRES

Fresno State 35 at New Mexico 24

UNM
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 26, 2014 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:02 · Garrett Swanson punt for 42 yds , Chris Davis returns for 1 yd to the NMex 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:38: Lamar Jordan run for 26 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +7.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:16: Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 10 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +13.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 11:34: Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +13.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:04: Lamar Jordan pass complete to David Anaya for 36 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +17.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:56: Josh Quezada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +22.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:21UNM 4th & 18 at UNM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:52UNM 4th & 1 at FRES 1, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:58FRES 4th & 1 at UNM 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−0.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:09UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:02FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:17FRES 4th & 24 at FRES 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:53UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:20UNM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.8%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:05UNM 4th & 1 at FRES 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−3.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−13.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:56FRES 4th & 1 at UNM 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−4.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−17.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:44UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−2.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:40UNM 4th & 21 at UNM 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:28UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:57FRES 4th & 17 at UNM 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:20FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:30UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:38UNM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:16FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:34FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:04UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:56FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 3:1446% → 47%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
46.5%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
46.6%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 4 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
46.8%
Mitchem, Clayton rush for 1 yard to the NEWMEXICO38, PENALTY NEWMEXICO holding 10 yards to the NEWMEXICO27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 20
OWN 27
-1
46.9%
Clayton Mitchem run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+3
47.0%
Clayton Mitchem run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 18
OWN 29
0
46.9%
Clayton Mitchem pass incomplete to Jhurell PressleySimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
46.9%
Zack Rogers punt for 37 yds, downed at the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:2653% → 53%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
47.0%
Marteze Waller run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
46.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 9 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+21
46.7%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
46.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
46.7%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+7
46.9%
LeKendrick Williams run for 7 yds to the NMex 13 LeKendrick Williams fumbled, recovered by NMex David GuthrieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FG
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:4048% → 50%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+69
47.6%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 69 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
48.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+2
48.7%
David Anaya run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+8
48.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
49.0%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
49.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
49.1%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
49.0%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
49.6%
Zack Rogers 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:3051% → 51%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+43
49.5%
Marteze Waller run for 43 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
48.3%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-6
48.3%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the NMex 19 FRESNO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 13
OPP 29
0
48.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+12
49.6%
Brian Burrell run for 12 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
49.5%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2950% → 50%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
49.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
50.2%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
50.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
50.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
50.8%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
50.3%
Zack Rogers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3549% → 55%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
50.0%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
50.9%
Josh Quezada run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
49.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 1 yd to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
50.1%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+32
50.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 32 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
48.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 4 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+23
44.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 23 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:2547% → 55%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+24
46.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 24 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
48.1%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
48.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
48.7%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
48.8%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
49.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+11
49.7%
David Anaya run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
54.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 18 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2748% → 46%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.7%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
52.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
53.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
54.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 42 yds , Chris Davis returns for 1 yd to the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:0453% → 65%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
52.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jhurell Pressley for 32 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
56.2%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
56.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
57.0%
David Anaya run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
64.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 26 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:0837% → 33%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.8%
LeKendrick Williams run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
63.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to LeKendrick Williams for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
63.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
62.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to LeKendrick Williams for 6 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
62.0%
Josh Quezada run for 9 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
61.8%
Brian Burrell run for 2 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-6
62.6%
Brian Burrell sacked by Toye Adewon for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-10
65.0%
Brian Burrell sacked by Devonta Tabannah for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 24
OWN 41
0
66.7%
Garrett Swanson punt for 31 yds, downed at the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0666% → 68%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
66.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+9
66.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for 9 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+7
67.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 7 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
69.0%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
69.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+1
68.6%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+3
67.6%
Zack Rogers punt for 43 yds , Derron Smith returns for 3 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 0:3133% → 49%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
66.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 12 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
66.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 32 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
63.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+25
63.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 25 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
61.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
61.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
51.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 10 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
56.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 3:1544% → 63%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
56.5%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+10
57.0%
Marteze Waller run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
56.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+8
55.0%
Brian Burrell run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-8
55.6%
Brian Burrell sacked by Kene Okonkwo for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+21
57.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 21 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
53.5%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+28
52.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 28 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
50.4%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+17
50.9%
Marteze Waller run for 17 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
50.5%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0844% → 64%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
43.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 11 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.3%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 5 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
46.8%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
46.2%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 1
50
+3
45.1%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
47.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+1
47.9%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
45.9%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
63.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to David Anaya for 36 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5542% → 42%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.6%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
58.0%
Brian Burrell run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
57.9%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Cranston Jones return for 3 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3665% → 62%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
65.3%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
65.5%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
64.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-1
62.2%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:5941% → 68%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
59.2%
Josh Quezada run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+5
58.0%
Josh Quezada run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.5%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
60.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 11 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
57.5%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
56.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 1
50
+45
55.7%
Brian Burrell run for 45 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
53.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 4 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.0%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.9%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the NMex 1Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.2%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3938% → 35%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
37.8%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 4 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-1
38.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
35.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Jhurell PressleySimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
34.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 58 yds, downed at the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:559% → 6%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
8.8%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Tyeler Davison for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 8Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+4
8.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 14
OWN 12
-7
7.5%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Todd Hunt for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 5Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 21
OWN 5
0
6.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3380% → 86%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
19.8%
Brian Burrell run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+8
18.5%
Brian Burrell run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
18.4%
Burrell, Brian pass incomplete to Harper, Josh, PENALTY NEWMEXICO pass interference 15 yards to the FRESNOST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
17.0%
Brian Burrell run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 47 Brian Burrell fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Brian BurrellSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+14
16.0%
Marteze Waller run for 14 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
15.4%
Marteze Waller run for 13 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
14.8%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+5
14.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 5 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
14.6%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.5%
Brian Burrell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2416% → 14%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Reece WhiteSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
16.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 10 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
16.7%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
15.6%
Crusoe Gongbay run for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
14.7%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
13.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Derron Smith at the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2188% → 92%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
12.5%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
12.1%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+19
12.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 19 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
9.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 1
50
+14
9.2%
Burrell, Brian pass incomplete, PENALTY NEWMEXICO roughing passer 14 yards to the NEWMEXICO36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
8.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 12 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
8.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 6 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
8.4%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
7.6%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Jeff Camilli for 3 yds to the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3893% → 96%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
6.6%
Marteze Waller run for 11 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
6.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+3
5.0%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-5
3.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Nik D'Avanzo for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 17
OPP 48
0
3.9%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
4.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:154% → 4%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
3.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
3.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:56
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-22.7
TD · Q3 7:04
Lamar Jordan pass complete to David Anaya for 36 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
+17.9
TD · Q3 11:34
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com