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BOIS

Boise State 14 at Air Force 28

AF
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:22 · Will Conant punt for 44 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 37 yds to the AFA 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior−31.4Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:19: Kale Pearson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +10.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:55: Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 18 — AF win probability +9.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Will Conant 25 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +5.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:47: Will Conant 21 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +3.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:21: Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 10 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 11BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45AF 4th & 9 at BOIS 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:21BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22AF 4th & 5 at AF 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:55AF 4th & 10 at AF 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00BOIS 4th & 6 at AF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:19BOIS 4th & 4 at AF 46, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−2.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:39AF 4th & 1 at AF 21, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:32BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:14AF 4th & 10 at BOIS 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:24AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 49, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:49BOIS 4th & 14 at AF 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−3.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−8.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:49AF 4th & 3 at AF 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:47AF 4th & 3 at BOIS 3, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BOIS 4th & 6 at AF 48, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00BOIS 4th & 4 at AF 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−5.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:21BOIS 4th & 10 at AF 10, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:21AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:32BOIS 4th & 23 at BOIS 49, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:40BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:25AF 4th & 2 at BOIS 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:26AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:19AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:35AF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:55BOIS Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:21BOIS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
15.0%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
15.0%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
15.0%
Will Conant punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
15.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 10 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
15.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-3
15.7%
Grant Hedrick sacked by Weston Steelhammer for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
15.8%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
16.6%
Broam Hart run for 5 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
16.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
16.6%
Kale Pearson run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
16.8%
Broam Hart run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 11
50
+2
16.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
16.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
16.5%
Will Conant punt for 45 yds, downed at the BoiSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
18.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 10 Jay Ajayi fumbled, forced by Dexter Walker, recovered by AFA Troy TimmermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5819% → 21%
Q1 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
18.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
18.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 4 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
20.6%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 9 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
20.4%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
20.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Matt MillerSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
20.6%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
20.7%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 9 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
20.3%
Jay Ajayi run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
20.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 3 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
20.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Matt Miller, broken up by Jordan MaysSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
20.2%
Grant Hedrick run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
20.6%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas Burroughs, broken up by Gavin McHenrySimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
20.8%
Sean Wale punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
23.2%
Broam Hart run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
23.1%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett Brown, broken up by Jonathan MoxeySimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+5
22.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+37
22.6%
Will Conant punt for 44 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 37 yds to the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
22.9%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5625% → 25%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
24.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
24.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-6
24.6%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 12 Kale Pearson fumbled, recovered by AFA Devin RushingSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+3
25.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
25.0%
Will Conant punt for 49 yds, downed at the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0874% → 74%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
25.9%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+16
26.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 16 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
25.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 11 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
25.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
25.3%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-10
25.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+13
26.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 13 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+4
26.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:2829% → 44%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
29.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
29.1%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+13
28.9%
Devin Rushing run for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
30.4%
Broam Hart run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
30.5%
Devin Rushing run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
30.6%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+20
33.4%
Kale Pearson run for 20 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
33.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 11 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
33.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.9%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
40.6%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
41.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Matt Miller for 10 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
39.8%
Grant Hedrick run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
39.0%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-5
39.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+10
40.5%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 10 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Grant Hedrick run for no gain to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
39.4%
Sean Wale punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1648% → 52%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
48.3%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+2
47.4%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
50.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
51.5%
Will Conant punt for 49 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
50.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
50.7%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
51.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
50.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Dallas Burroughs for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
49.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
49.8%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+2
50.2%
Grant Hedrick run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
50.5%
Sean Wale punt for 42 yds, downed at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 1:4859% → 63%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
58.5%
Kale Pearson run for 23 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
58.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
58.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
59.5%
Kale Pearson run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
59.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 9 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
58.9%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
57.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
59.6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 18 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.2%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
63.2%
Will Conant 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
63.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
64.1%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 6 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
63.1%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
62.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
63.9%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted Gavin McHenry return for no gain to the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
68.4%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+6
67.9%
Garrett Brown run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-2
67.5%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
65.8%
Will Conant punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
71.3%
Grant Hedrick run for 32 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
68.7%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
68.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 3 yds Jay Ajayi fumbled, forced by Connor Healy, recovered by AFA Connor HealySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
77.6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
77.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
76.9%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the BoiSt 49 Kale Pearson fumbled, recovered by AFA Kale PearsonSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
75.7%
Will Conant punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 1:5526% → 21%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+34
74.2%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 34 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
70.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+16
69.8%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Jake Roh for 16 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.6%
Jay Ajayi run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
68.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
70.9%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
73.1%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
79.0%
Dan Goodale 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.3%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
83.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+4
83.0%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
81.9%
Will Conant punt for 56 yds, downed at the BoiSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22INT
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:0018% → 21%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+46
82.3%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 46 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
79.8%
Jay Ajayi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
50
0
79.5%
Grant Hedrick pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 7
50
+10
80.0%
Grant Hedrick pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+56
79.2%
Grant Hedrick pass intercepted Jordan Pierce return for 56 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0587% → 91%
Q3 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
87.2%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
87.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
86.9%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
90.9%
Will Conant 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 1:406% → 5%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
94.5%
Jay Ajayi run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Shane Williams-RhodesSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+8
94.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 8 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
94.2%
Jay Ajayi run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
94.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
94.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Chaz Anderson, broken up by Jordan MaysSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+23
95.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 23 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
94.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 7 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-1
94.7%
Devan Demas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
95.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Holden HuffSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
95.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:2997% → 100%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
97.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 23 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
97.6%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+42
97.5%
Kale Pearson run for 42 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Kale Pearson pass to Garrett Brown GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:330% → 3%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Dallas BurroughsSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Eli McCullough) to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+43
99.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jake Roh for 43 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+16
99.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Holden Huff for 16 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
99.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Gavin McHenry) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 2 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 39 Jacobi Owens fumbled, forced by Tyler Gray, recovered by BoiSt Tanner VallejoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:292% → 9%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+31
98.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 31 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.9%
Jay Ajayi run for no gain to the AFA 8Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
98.1%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 10 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.9%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
94.9%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
94.6%
Will Conant punt for 46 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for 15 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30DOWNS
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
91.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Gavin McHenry) to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (Riley Cannon) to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 5
OPP 43
-5
91.0%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
91.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jay Ajayi for 10 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
91.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 20
OPP 48
0
92.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 20
OPP 48
-3
92.8%
Ryan Finley sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 23
OWN 49
0
93.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Chaz Anderson, broken up by Jordan MaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 31FUMBLE
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
97.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 34 Jacobi Owens fumbled, forced by Jonathan Moxey, recovered by BoiSt Chanceller JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 32INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
94.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 25
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 25
OWN 19
+6
95.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 6 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+1
95.3%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 33END OF GAME
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:1398% → 99%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
98.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
98.1%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
98.4%
Devin Rushing run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+3
98.7%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+3
99.2%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:19
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+10.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:55
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 18
+9
TD · Q4 6:21
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 10 yds for a TD, (Dan Goodale KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com