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UNM

New Mexico 38 at New Mexico State 35

NMSU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Steven Witkowski punt for 41 yds , Markel Byrd returns for 6 yds to the NMex 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior−2.6Home team on offense+6.3Garbage-time factor+2.6Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:13: Xavier Hall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:04: Xavier Hall run for 17 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:53: Crusoe Gongbay run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +33.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:41: Joshua Bowen 10 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick) — NMSU win probability +40.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:27: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 5 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +57.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:33NMSU 4th & 2 at UNM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10UNM 4th & 13 at NMSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:13UNM 4th & 14 at NMSU 27, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.8%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:13UNM 4th & 14 at NMSU 27, up 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05NMSU 4th & 10 at UNM 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:13NMSU 4th & 1 at UNM 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−4.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−15.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:57UNM 4th & 7 at NMSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:58UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:52UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:14NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:07NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:49UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:13NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:04NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:53UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−1.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:41NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−1.8
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:27UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
39.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 12 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
39.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
39.6%
Cole Gautsche pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
39.6%
Cole Gautsche run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
50
0
39.6%
Zack Rogers punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2INT
16 plays · 73 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
40.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 2 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-2
40.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+23
40.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 23 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 3 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
40.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+13
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 13 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
40.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
40.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
40.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 1 yd to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+5
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 5 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
40.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
40.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 4 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+8
40.8%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMex 12Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
40.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon BetancourtSimilar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+16
40.8%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Dakota Cox return for 16 yds to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 4:0358% → 57%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
41.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+37
41.5%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 37 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
40.9%
Cole Gautsche run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
40.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Teriyon Gipson) to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-1
41.0%
Cole Gautsche run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 26 Cole Gautsche fumbled, recovered by NMex Cole GautscheSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 16
OPP 26
-3
41.2%
Carlos Wiggins run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 19
OPP 29
+6
41.7%
Cole Gautsche pass complete to Marquis Bundy for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
43.5%
Zack Rogers 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
43.4%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
43.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-6
42.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Andy Cunningham) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
42.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+13
42.4%
Steven Witkowski punt for 45 yds , Markel Byrd returns for 13 yds to the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 0:5458% → 62%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.0%
Cole Gautsche pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
42.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+47
37.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 47 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:3539% → 49%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
39.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 18 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
40.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
40.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
40.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
40.6%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
41.4%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
41.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 6 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
48.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rogers KICK), (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:5656% → 63%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
44.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
44.2%
Cole Gautsche run for 1 yd to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
44.7%
Cole Gautsche pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 7 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.5%
Cole Gautsche pass incomplete to Jeric MagnantSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
43.8%
Cole Gautsche run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
42.7%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
42.2%
David Anaya run for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
42.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (David Anaya) to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+1
43.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
43.9%
Cole Gautsche pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+27
37.7%
Quinton McCown run for 27 yds for a TDSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+27
37.1%
Quinton McCown 27 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:0637% → 53%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
37.7%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
37.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 10 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
38.8%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
39.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 1
50
+2
39.5%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
39.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 12 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
39.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Houston Clemente) to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+11
38.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 11 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
40.9%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
40.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+15
39.6%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Oyenuga, S, PENALTY NM INT (EDWARDS, SaQwan) 15 yards to the NM8, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
40.9%
Brandon Betancourt run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 9Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
53.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 9 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1255% → 69%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
45.1%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 10 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
43.5%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
43.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
43.0%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
42.8%
Cole Gautsche run for 26 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
30.8%
David Anaya pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 18 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:4436% → 34%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
36.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
50
0
39.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
50
+17
38.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 17 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
41.0%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
41.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by SaQwan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
37.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-5
35.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Adam Shapiro) to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+5
34.2%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted SaQwan Edwards return for 5 yds to the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
33.0%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
33.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 10 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
32.0%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 8 yds to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
34.4%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
34.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-13
33.9%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Shapiro, Adam for 3 yards to the NMSU29, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NMSU PS (Ume-Ezeoke, V.) 13 yards to the NMSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+30
33.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 30 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
36.5%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
37.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
35.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
34.0%
Stody Bradley punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
33.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the NMex 12 Teriyon Gipson fumbled, forced by Kawe Johnson, recovered by NMxSt Andrew AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:0339% → 51%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
38.6%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMex 12Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
38.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+9
36.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 9 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
51.3%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:1254% → 62%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
46.2%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 5 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+36
45.6%
Clayton Mitchem run for 36 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
42.3%
Clayton Mitchem pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 13 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
40.5%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+7
40.5%
Clayton Mitchem run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
40.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 1 yd to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
40.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
42.0%
David Anaya run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 2
OPP 6
-5
43.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (Lamar Jordan) to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
38.3%
Zack Rogers 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5341% → 68%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.6%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
43.6%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
42.0%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
41.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
44.5%
Betancourt, B rush for 54 yards to the NM0, clock 04:20, PENALTY NM illegal block (CROSBY, Lee) 22 yards to the NM32, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
46.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+3
46.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
46.9%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
68.4%
Xavier Hall run for 17 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.7%
Clayton Mitchem pass incomplete to Teriyon GipsonSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
59.5%
Clayton Mitchem run for 9 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
56.1%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 4 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
55.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Eden Mahina) to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-2
59.3%
Clayton Mitchem run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
60.1%
Clayton Mitchem pass incomplete to Marquis BundySimilar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+7
61.0%
Clayton Mitchem pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 7 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+3
61.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 50 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 3 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
64.3%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+10
63.8%
Xavier Hall run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
65.7%
Brandon Betancourt run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-1
65.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
63.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+6
62.3%
Steven Witkowski punt for 41 yds , Markel Byrd returns for 6 yds to the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:0642% → 74%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
57.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
56.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+6
62.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
61.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+1
62.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+10
64.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 10 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
59.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
26.2%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
18 plays · 74 yds · 4:0737% → 85%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
37.4%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
36.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to R Compton for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+28
35.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 28 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
42.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
42.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+5
42.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for 5 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
45.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
45.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 10 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
45.4%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
45.4%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
42.7%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
45.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
45.4%
Brandon Betancourt run for no gain to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
85.7%
Joshua Bowen 10 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)Similar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+25
84.3%
Gregory Hogan run for 25 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 0
OPP 40
-12
86.1%
Joshua Bowen run for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 0
OWN 48
+6
84.6%
- 1j run for 6 yds to the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:1429% → 95%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
71.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
66.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
65.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
66.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
63.9%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+15
63.0%
JORDAN, Lamar pass incomplete to MAGNANT, Jeric, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Hill, Lewis) 15 yards to the NMSU8, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
63.0%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
5.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 5 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22Uncategorized
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Dakota CoxSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
19.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 21 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
23.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
21.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 9 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST down lat. to Teldrick Morgan for 12 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:27
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 5 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-57.9
TD · Q4 4:41
Joshua Bowen 10 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)
+40.4
TD · Q4 8:53
Crusoe Gongbay run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-33.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com