Try the model
SUU

Southern Utah 16 at Fresno State 56

FRES
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSUU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSUU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:32 · Josh Quezada run for 16 yds to the SoUth 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+17.1Home team on offense+21.1Score differential+12.2Blowout margin−0.4Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:55: Ammon Olsen pass complete to Mitch Jessop for 4 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor McGirr MISSED) — SUU win probability +6.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SUU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:27: Ammon Olsen pass intercepted for a TD Kyrie Wilson return for 23 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +4.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SUU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:29: Chad Olsen 4 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +5.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:48: Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +5.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:34: Josh Quezada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SUU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00SUU 4th & 6 at SUU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:22FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:41SUU 4th & 8 at FRES 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:14FRES 4th & 2 at SUU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:37SUU 4th & 8 at SUU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:36SUU 4th & 10 at SUU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:37FRES 4th & 1 at SUU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:55SUU 4th & 3 at FRES 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.7%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:55FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 26, down 3
    Close callPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:26SUU 4th & 5 at FRES 25, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:55FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:21SUU 4th & 9 at SUU 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 3 at SUU 46, up 12
    Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:12SUU 4th & 13 at SUU 3, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:32FRES 4th & 1 at SUU 30, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:26SUU 4th & 1 at SUU 29, down 26
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:05SUU 4th & 8 at SUU 18, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 13 at SUU 39, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:29SUU 4th & 5 at SUU 30, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:52SUU 4th & 1 at SUU 31, down 40
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SUU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:39FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:27FRES Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:29FRES Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:48FRES Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:34FRES Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:11FRES Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:19SUU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:29FRES Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:51FRES Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SUUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.9%
Malik Brown run for 3 yds to the SoUth 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
85.9%
Ammon Olsen run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoUth 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.9%
Malik Brown run for 4 yds to the SoUth 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
85.9%
Tate Lewis punt for 51 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
85.4%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-3
85.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+4
85.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for 4 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
85.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.9%
Ammon Olsen run for 6 yds to the SoUth 26Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+32
84.9%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Mitch Jessop for 32 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.7%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Mitch Jessop, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
84.7%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+2
84.8%
Ammon Olsen run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
84.9%
Tate Lewis punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 64 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.5%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+49
84.5%
Marteze Waller run for 49 yds to the SoUth 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
84.9%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the SoUth 22Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
84.8%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the SoUth 17Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+1
84.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 1 yd to the SoUth 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
83.8%
Malik Brown run for 3 yds to the SoUth 19Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
83.8%
Ammon Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-1
84.0%
Ammon Olsen run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoUth 18 SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
84.1%
Tate Lewis punt for 38 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.0%
Brian Burrell run for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
83.8%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-6
83.7%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Miles Killebrew return for a loss of 6 yards to the SoUth 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
82.9%
Ammon Olsen sacked by Todd Hunt and Claudell Louis for a loss of 2 yards to the SoUth 38Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
83.1%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Easton Pedersen for 5 yds to the SoUth 43Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+2
83.0%
Malik Brown run for 2 yds to the SoUth 45Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 5
OWN 45
-5
83.2%
SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the SoUth 40Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+23
83.4%
Tate Lewis punt for 50 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 23 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
83.1%
Brandon Connette run for 15 yds to the SoUth 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.3%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
83.2%
Brandon Connette pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
82.6%
LeKendrick Williams run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
83.0%
Brandon Connette run for 9 yds to the SoUth 32Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
82.9%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the SoUth 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2618% → 21%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
81.8%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Justin Brown for 13 yds to the SoUth 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
81.4%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Naia Ursua for 14 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
81.2%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Naia UrsuaSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
81.2%
Malik Brown run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+28
81.4%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Malik Brown for 28 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.0%
Malik Brown run for no gain to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
81.0%
Malik Brown run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
81.3%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Mitch Jessop for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Kyrie Wilson) to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
81.0%
Malik Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.0%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Justin BrownSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
81.3%
Malik Brown run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
78.9%
Trevor McGirr 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
79.5%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
79.6%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+3
79.0%
Brandon Connette pass complete to LeKendrick Williams for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+3
78.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 30 yds , Brady Measom returns for 3 yds to the SoUth 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1522% → 23%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
77.7%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Mike Sharp for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
77.4%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Naia UrsuaSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
77.7%
Ammon Olsen run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
77.5%
Malik Brown run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
77.5%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Mike SharpSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+11
77.8%
Malik Brown run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
77.2%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Brady Measom for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-1
77.1%
Ammon Olsen run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+2
77.7%
Malik Brown run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
76.6%
Trevor McGirr 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:4777% → 82%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.3%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Josh QuezadaSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
77.1%
Brandon Connette run for no gain to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+18
76.5%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Aaron Peck for 18 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
78.5%
LeKendrick Williams run for 9 yds to the SoUth 47Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
78.9%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the SoUth 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
78.9%
Josh Quezada run for 15 yds to the SoUth 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
79.4%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Quezada for 6 yds to the SoUth 24Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+14
79.4%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 14 yds to the SoUth 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
82.2%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 10 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:3820% → 29%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
79.8%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Malik Brown for 9 yds to the SoUth 39Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
78.8%
Malik Brown run for 3 yds to the SoUth 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
78.9%
Olsen pass incomplete (94), PENALTY SUU holding 10 yards to the SUU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+61
80.0%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Justin Brown for 61 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
77.6%
Malik Brown run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.3%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Mitch Jessop for 4 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor McGirr MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
75.4%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
76.8%
Brandon Connette run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
76.5%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
76.8%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
76.1%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+3
75.2%
Brandon Connette run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
74.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brady Measom at the SoUth 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 15INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
79.8%
Ammon Olsen pass intercepted for a TD Kyrie Wilson return for 23 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Ammon Olsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.7%
Ammon Olsen run for 1 yd to the SoUth 26Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
80.3%
Toa Afatasi run for no gain to the SoUth 26Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+13
80.8%
Tate Lewis punt for 52 yds , LeKendrick Williams returns for 13 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:1581% → 89%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+32
80.7%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 32 yds to the SoUth 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
82.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 6 yds to the SoUth 27Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+9
82.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 9 yds to the SoUth 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
82.8%
Josh Quezada run for 4 yds to the SoUth 14Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+10
82.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 10 yds to the SoUth 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.7%
Chad Olsen 4 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
86.6%
Ammon Olsen run for 1 yd to the SoUth 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.6%
Marteze Waller run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
88.9%
Brian Burrell run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
89.2%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the SoUth 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
89.3%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the SoUth 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
88.8%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
88.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 40 yds, downed at the SoUth 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
87.5%
Naia Ursua run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoUth 4Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+1
87.7%
Ammon Olsen run for 1 yd to the SoUth 5Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 11
OWN 5
-2
87.9%
Ammon Olsen sacked by Donavon Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the SoUth 3Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 13
OWN 3
0
88.0%
Tate Lewis puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2690% → 96%
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
89.9%
Brian Burrell run for 4 yds to the SoUth 2Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
93.6%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Justin Brown for 19 yds Justin Brown fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by FrsSt Derron Smith , return for 4 yds to the SoUth 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5896% → 99%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
95.9%
Josh Quezada run for 16 yds to the SoUth 23 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SoUth 33Similar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 4
OPP 33
0
95.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
95.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to LeKendrick Williams for 1 yd to the SoUth 32Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
95.8%
Josh Quezada run for 2 yds to the SoUth 30Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+16
95.5%
Josh Quezada run for 16 yds to the SoUth 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
95.9%
Josh Quezada run for 3 yds to the SoUth 11Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+10
95.9%
Brian Burrell run for 10 yds to the SoUth 1 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, Defensive holding (Steve Clark) to the SoUth 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.2%
Malik Brown run for 4 yds to the SoUth 24Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
99.2%
Malik Brown run for no gain to the SoUth 24Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
99.2%
Malik Brown run for 5 yds to the SoUth 29Similar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Tate Lewis punt for 47 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:3299% → 100%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to LeKendrick Williams for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+7
99.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to LeKendrick Williams for 31 yds to the FRESNOST 43 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Josh Harper) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-1
99.1%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+5
99.1%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.2%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
99.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
99.2%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+41
99.2%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 41 yds to the SoUth 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Justin Northern) to the SoUth 17Similar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+10
99.2%
Brian Burrell run for 10 yds to the SoUth 7Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 7 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
99.8%
Ammon Olsen sacked by Dalen Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the SoUth 13Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-3
99.8%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Mitch Jessop for 6 yds to the SoUth 19 SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, personal foul (P.J. Taeao-Tauanu'u) to the SoUth 10Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Tate Lewis punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+8
99.8%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Malik Brown for 8 yds to the SoUth 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Josh Quezada run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+15
99.8%
Josh Quezada run for 15 yds to the SoUth 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to T.J. Thomas for 2 yds to the SoUth 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-5
99.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoUth 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 36 yds, downed at the SoUth 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 97 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
99.9%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Anthony Norris for 13 yds to the SoUth 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
99.8%
Toa Afatasi run for 6 yds to the SoUth 22Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+1
99.8%
Toa Afatasi run for 1 yd to the SoUth 23Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+77
99.8%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to C.J. Morgan for 77 yds for a TD, (Trevor McGirr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.6%
T.J. Thomas run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+81
99.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 81 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Easton Pedersen, broken up by Brandon HughesSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Toa Afatasi for 5 yds to the SoUth 30Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Ammon Olsen pass incomplete to Mitch JessopSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Tate Lewis punt for 38 yds, downed at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 31TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
T.J. Thomas run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.9%
T.J. Thomas run for 8 yds to the SoUth 46Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+8
99.9%
T.J. Thomas run for 8 yds to the SoUth 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.9%
Kyrie Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoUth 40Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+21
99.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 21 yds to the SoUth 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
T.J. Thomas run for 2 yds to the SoUth 17Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
T.J. Thomas run for 17 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 32PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Pete Williams run for no gain to the SoUth 22Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Aaron Cantu pass complete to Toa Afatasi for 3 yds to the SoUth 25Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Aaron Cantu pass complete to Easton Pedersen for 6 yds to the SoUth 31Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Tate Lewis punt for 47 yds, fair catch by LeKendrick Williams at the FrsSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 33END OF GAME
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
99.9%
Darryl Cash run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.9%
Darryl Cash run for 4 yds to the SoUth 46Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Darryl Cash run for 3 yds to the SoUth 43Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+13
99.9%
Darryl Cash run for 13 yds to the SoUth 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
CASH, Darryl rush for loss of 2 yards to the SUU32 (L. Afatasi), PENALTY SUU offside defense 5 yards to the SUU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+1
99.9%
Darryl Cash run for 1 yd to the SoUth 24Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+8
99.9%
Darryl Cash run for 8 yds to the SoUth 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Darryl Cash run for no gain to the SoUth 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:55
Ammon Olsen pass complete to Mitch Jessop for 4 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor McGirr MISSED)
-6.3
TD · Q2 0:29
Chad Olsen 4 Yd pass from Brian Burrell (Kody Kroening Kick)
+5.9
TD · Q3 10:48
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com