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UCD

UC Davis 21 at Colorado State 49

CSU
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:10 · Colby Wadman punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+33.7Home team on offense+15.1Score differential+10.5Garbage-time factor+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:44: London Lacy pass complete to Mark Martindale for 11 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK) — UCD win probability +1.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:57: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 20 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:16: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 52 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:50: Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:35: Justin Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK) — UCD win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UCD made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:01UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:55UCD 4th & 5 at UCD 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:51UCD 4th & 5 at UCD 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55CSU 4th & 15 at UCD 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:20UCD 4th & 5 at CSU 8, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.5%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10UCD 4th & 10 at CSU 41, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 42, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:56UCD 4th & 6 at UCD 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:40CSU 4th & 1 at UCD 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:02UCD 4th & 1 at UCD 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:08UCD 4th & 8 at UCD 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UCD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:55CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:47CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:44UCD Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:57CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:16CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:50CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:35UCD Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:14CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:10CSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:48UCD Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
96.4%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+11
96.4%
Deionte Gaines run for 11 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
96.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
96.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
96.2%
Colton Silveria run for 3 yds to the UCDav 19Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
96.2%
London Lacy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
96.2%
London Lacy pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
96.2%
Colby Wadman punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:5896% → 96%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.0%
Garrett Grayson run for 5 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
96.0%
Dee Hart run for 13 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
96.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 45 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
London Lacy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
96.0%
Gabe Manzanares run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 23Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
96.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Alex Cannon for 7 yds to the UCDav 30Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.0%
Colby Wadman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3096% → 96%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 6 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
95.9%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+4
95.7%
Treyous Jarrells run for 4 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
95.8%
Treyous Jarrells run for 27 yds to the UCDav 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
95.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the UCDav 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
95.8%
Dee Hart run for 6 yds to the UCDav 15Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
96.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 15 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 6TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:554% → 5%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
95.8%
London Lacy pass complete to Jermale Jefferson for 3 yds to the UCDav 37Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+11
95.8%
London Lacy pass complete to Dalton Turay for 11 yds to the UCDav 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
95.8%
Colton Silveria run for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+37
95.8%
London Lacy pass complete to Mark Martindale for 37 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
94.8%
London Lacy pass complete to Mark Martindale for 11 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:3995% → 96%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
95.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+29
95.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 29 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
95.3%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+24
95.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 24 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
95.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 20 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
95.5%
Justin Williams run for 1 yd to the UCDav 25Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-1
95.5%
London Lacy pass complete to Dalton Turay for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 24Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+5
95.5%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Corey Galindo, QB hurry by JAMES, Cory, PENALTY CS offside (JAMES, Cory) 5 yards to the UCD29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
95.4%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Corey GalindoSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+29
95.5%
Colby Wadman punt for 44 yds, downed at the COLOST 27 UC DAVIS Penalty, kick catching interference (Keleen Culberson) to the ColSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:0996% → 95%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
95.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+36
95.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 36 yds to the UCDav 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
95.7%
Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds to the UCDav 8Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+1
95.7%
Treyous Jarrells run for 1 yd to the UCDav 7Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-12
95.6%
Garrett Grayson run for a loss of 12 yards to the UCDav 16 Garrett Grayson fumbled, forced by Marques Barron, recovered by ColSt Nick CallenderSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+33
95.3%
Jared Roberts 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 10MISSED FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 8:355% → 6%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.1%
Gabe Manzanares run for 2 yds to the UCDav 22Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
95.1%
Jermale Jefferson run for 4 yds to the UCDav 26Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
95.1%
London Lacy pass complete to Keelan Doss for 11 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
95.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Dalton Turay for 8 yds to the UCDav 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+7
94.9%
Colton Silveria run for 7 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.8%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
94.9%
Colton Silveria run for 4 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+6
94.8%
London Lacy pass complete to Chris Martin for 6 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.8%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Chris Martin, broken up by Trent MatthewsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
94.8%
London Lacy pass complete to Corey Galindo for 13 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
94.7%
Jermale Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+1
94.8%
London Lacy pass complete to Dalton Turay for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+14
94.9%
London Lacy pass complete to Keelan Doss for 14 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
94.7%
Alex Cannon run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
94.7%
Gabe Manzanares run for 3 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
94.8%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
93.8%
Brady Stuart 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cory James return for no gain to the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:0494% → 98%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
94.3%
Treyous Jarrells run for 12 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
94.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 7 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
94.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+52
97.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 52 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
97.3%
Colton Silveria run for 3 yds to the UCDav 22Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+7
97.3%
London Lacy pass complete to Alex Cannon for 7 yds to the UCDav 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
97.2%
London Lacy pass complete to Corey Collins for 3 yds to the UCDav 32Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
97.1%
Gabe Manzanares run for 5 yds to the UCDav 37Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+22
97.1%
Colton Silveria run for 22 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
96.9%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Corey GalindoSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
96.9%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Alex Cannon, broken up by Max MorganSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
97.0%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Justin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
97.1%
Colby Wadman punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
98.1%
Treyous Jarrells run for 13 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
98.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 9 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
98.1%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
98.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chris Martin at the UCDav 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
97.6%
Colton Silveria run for 3 yds to the UCDav 22Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
97.6%
Colton Silveria run for 6 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
97.5%
Colton Silveria run for no gain to the UCDav 28Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 28
-5
97.5%
UC DAVIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 23Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
97.6%
Colby Wadman punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
98.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+21
98.1%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 21 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
98.2%
Dee Hart run for 9 yds to the UCDav 36Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+10
98.2%
Garrett Grayson run for 10 yds to the UCDav 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
98.2%
Joe Hansley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 27Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+10
98.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 10 yds to the UCDav 17Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
98.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the UCDav 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.0%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Corey GalindoSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+18
98.0%
Colton Silveria run for 18 yds to the UCDav 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
97.9%
Gabe Manzanares run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 28 Gabe Manzanares fumbled, forced by LaRyan King, recovered by UCDav London LacySimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+6
98.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Zach Boman for 6 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+10
98.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Gabe Manzanares for 10 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
97.9%
Colby Wadman punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 9 , Dee Hart returns for 1 yd to the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 91 yds · 6:1398% → 100%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
98.3%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+1
98.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 1 yd to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+13
98.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+17
98.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 17 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.4%
Treyous Jarrells run for 5 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+8
98.4%
Treyous Jarrells run for 8 yds to the UCDav 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 9 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
98.4%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the UCDav 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
98.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 7 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+10
99.2%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 10 yds to the UCDav 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
99.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCDav 4Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
99.2%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the UCDav 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 19TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:100% → 1%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Colton Silveria run for 6 yds to the UCDav 20Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
London Lacy pass complete to Keelan Doss for 11 yds to the UCDav 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
99.9%
Colton Silveria run for 11 yds to the UCDav 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
99.9%
Justin Williams run for 19 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Zach Boman, broken up by Nu'uvali Fa'apitoSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
99.9%
Justin Williams run for 12 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
99.8%
Gabe Manzanares run for 11 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
98.8%
Justin Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:1599% → 100%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.4%
Treyous Jarrells run for 6 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+69
99.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 69 yds to the UCDav 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Steven Walker, broken up by Travon BrooksSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Jermale Jefferson run for 2 yds to the UCDav 30Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
London Lacy pass complete to Dalton Turay for 9 yds to the UCDav 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
Justin Williams run for 1 yd to the UCDav 40Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Colton Silveria run for 1 yd to the UCDav 41Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
99.9%
London Lacy pass incomplete to Keelan Doss, broken up by Shun JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Colby Wadman punt for 43 yds , Dee Hart returns for 3 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
99.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 14 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Treyous Jarrells for 6 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 3
50
+50
99.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 50 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 23TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
Justin Williams run for 5 yds to the UCDav 31Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+11
100.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Jermale Jefferson for 11 yds to the UCDav 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+15
100.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Nutt Jr.) to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
100.0%
London Lacy pass complete to Colton Silveria for 11 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
99.9%
London Lacy pass complete to Dalton Turay for 11 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Justin Williams run for 6 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
100.0%
Justin Williams run for 6 yds to the UCDav 48Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Colton Silveria run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Treyous Jarrells run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+16
100.0%
Bryce Peters run for 16 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
100.0%
Bryce Peters run for 2 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:16
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 52 yds for a TD (Jared Roberts KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q1 5:44
London Lacy pass complete to Mark Martindale for 11 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)
-1
TD · Q4 11:35
Justin Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brady Stuart KICK)
-1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com