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IDST

Idaho State 20 at Utah State 40

USU
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreIDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:30 · C.J. Reyes punt for 21 yds , Tyler Floyd returns for no gain to the IdaSt 46 Tyler Floyd fumbled, recovered by IdaSt Keelan McCaffery IDAHO ST Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the IdaSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+41.1Home team on offense+1.1Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:59: Zak Johnson 49 yd FG GOOD — IDST win probability +1.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:33: Rashad Hall run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:43: Joe Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz MISSED) — USU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:09: Justin Arias pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Davis return for 44 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK) — USU win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:27: Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 42 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK) — IDST win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10IDST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:50USU 4th & 11 at IDST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    40% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13USU 4th & 2 at IDST 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:02IDST 4th & 6 at IDST 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:43USU 4th & 1 at USU 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:28IDST 4th & 13 at IDST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:16USU 4th & 7 at IDST 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:39IDST 4th & 4 at USU 4, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:39USU 4th & 10 at USU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:30IDST 4th & 8 at IDST 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:59IDST 4th & 9 at USU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:59USU 4th & 5 at IDST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:27IDST 4th & 6 at IDST 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:24IDST 4th & 6 at IDST 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:09IDST 4th & 21 at USU 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:16USU 4th & 5 at USU 16, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:19USU 4th & 3 at IDST 42, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:30IDST 4th & 10 at USU 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00USU 4th & 22 at USU 45, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:17IDST 4th & 5 at IDST 35, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:29USU 4th & 3 at USU 35, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:16IDST 4th & 20 at USU 49, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IDST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 2:33USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:09USU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:27IDST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:03USU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:35IDST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.2%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+26
98.2%
Chuckie Keeton run for 26 yds to the IdaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
98.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
98.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+54
97.9%
Jake Thompson 54 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Hayden StoutSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 2INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.9%
Xavier Finney run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 38Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+21
97.9%
Justin Arias pass intercepted Jalen Davis return for 21 yds to the IdaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0498% → 98%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-10
97.9%
KEETON, Chuckie pass complete to NATSON, JoJo for 4 yards to the ISU18 (Taison Manu;Mitch Beckstead), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the ISU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+8
97.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 8 yds to the IdaSt 24Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+10
97.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for 10 yds to the IdaSt 14Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
97.7%
Nick Diaz 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
97.6%
Xavier Finney run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
97.6%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Bryant HayesSimilar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+5
97.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 5 yds to the IdaSt 32Similar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+31
97.6%
C.J. Reyes punt for 31 yds , Hayden Weichers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
97.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-15
97.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 25
OWN 21
+24
97.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for 24 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
97.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
97.3%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Madison Mangum, broken up by Daniel GraySimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
97.3%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Madison Mangum, PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the ISU28, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
97.3%
Justin Arias pass complete to Xavier Finney for a loss of 3 yards to the IdaSt 25Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Broc Malcom, broken up by Nick VigilSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Madison MangumSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
97.3%
C.J. Reyes punt for 23 yds , Hayden Weichers returns for no gain to the IdaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
97.2%
Joe Hill run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 42Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
97.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
97.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Tyler Weese for 4 yds to the IdaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
97.2%
Chuckie Keeton run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+36
97.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass intercepted Mario Jenkins return for 21 yds to the IdaSt 14 IDAHO ST Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the IdaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
96.9%
Justin Arias pass intercepted by GRAY, Daniel at the USU46, GRAY, Daniel return to the USU46, PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the ISU47, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.8%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Broc Malcom, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
96.8%
IDAHO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the IdaSt 42Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+1
96.9%
Xavier Finney run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 43Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+4
96.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 2 yds Broc Malcom fumbled, forced by Torrey Green, recovered by UthSt Torrey Green , return for 4 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:3697% → 97%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Joe Hill run for no gain to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+20
96.9%
Rashad Hall run for 20 yds to the IdaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Joe HillSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+17
96.9%
Joe Hill run for 17 yds to the IdaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
96.9%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 4Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
96.9%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the IdaSt 7Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
96.7%
Nick Diaz 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 10FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 2:373% → 5%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.6%
IDAHO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IdaSt 20Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
96.6%
Xavier Finney run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 25Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
96.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 33 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
96.4%
Xavier Finney run for 3 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+18
96.4%
Xavier Finney run for 18 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.1%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to KW WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
96.1%
Daniel McSurdy run for 9 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
96.2%
Justin Arias pass complete to Daniel McSurdy for 3 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
96.1%
Xavier Finney run for 5 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.1%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Broc MalcomSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.2%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
95.5%
Zak Johnson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Mitch BecksteadSimilar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
95.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+57
95.5%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 50 yds, downed at the UTAHST 15 IDAHO ST Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the IdaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:444% → 5%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
95.7%
Xavier Finney run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 12Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+9
95.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 9 yds to the IdaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
95.6%
Xavier Finney run for 14 yds to the IdaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
95.5%
Daniel McSurdy run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 37Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
95.5%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Aaron Prier, broken up by Rashard StewartSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
95.1%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Madison MangumSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
95.3%
C.J. Reyes punt for 21 yds , Tyler Floyd returns for no gain to the IdaSt 46 Tyler Floyd fumbled, recovered by IdaSt Keelan McCaffery IDAHO ST Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the IdaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 13FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:235% → 6%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
94.7%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 21 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.4%
Xavier Finney run for 3 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
94.4%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to KW WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-2
94.7%
Xavier Finney run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
93.9%
Zak Johnson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Joe Hill run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
94.8%
Joe Hill run for 9 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
94.8%
Joe Hill run for 14 yds to the IdaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.0%
Joe Hill run for no gain to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
95.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for 5 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
94.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
94.7%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 33 yds, downed at the IdaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
93.1%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Broc MalcomSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
93.2%
Xavier Finney run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 11Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
93.2%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Madison MangumSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 6
OWN 11
+6
93.4%
C.J. Reyes punt for 47 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 6 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:5194% → 95%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hayden Weichers for no gain to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
93.7%
HILL, Joe rush for 3 yards to the ISU49 (Mario Jenkins), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the USU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+3
93.4%
Joe Hill run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+22
93.2%
Chuckie Keeton run for 22 yds to the IdaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
94.0%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the IdaSt 39Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+14
93.8%
Joe Hill run for 14 yds to the IdaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
94.2%
Rashad Hall run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 24Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+15
94.2%
KEETON, Chuckie pass incomplete to PATTERSON, Damo, PENALTY ISU pass interference 15 yards to the ISU9, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
94.2%
Rashad Hall run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 5Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.2%
Rashad Hall run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:015% → 4%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
94.9%
Xavier Finney run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 8Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+3
94.9%
Xavier Finney run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 11Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
94.7%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 6
OWN 11
+52
96.4%
C.J. Reyes punt for 41 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 52 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.2%
Xavier Finney run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
96.2%
Xavier Finney run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 28Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
96.3%
Xavier Finney run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
96.2%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to KW Williams, broken up by Bryant HayesSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
96.2%
Justin Arias pass complete to Xavier Finney for no gain to the IdaSt 12Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
96.2%
Justin Arias pass intercepted Brian Suite return for no gain to the IdaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:4697% → 99%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
96.5%
HILL, Joe rush for 3 yards to the ISU14 (Cody Sorensen;Brandon Golden), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the ISU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+6
96.5%
Chuckie Keeton run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+20
96.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for 20 yds to the IdaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Joe Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 21INT TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:282% → 0%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
98.3%
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 16 yds to the IdaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.2%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Madison MangumSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+44
99.7%
Justin Arias pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Davis return for 44 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.7%
Xavier Finney run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 24Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
99.7%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Madison Mangum (STEWART, Rashar), PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the ISU39, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.7%
Daniel McSurdy run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 43Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+22
99.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to Josh Cook for 22 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.6%
Justin Arias run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
99.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to CJ Langlow for 4 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-13
99.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to Daniel McSurdy for 2 yds to the UthSt 26 IDAHO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 41Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 16
OPP 41
-5
99.7%
IDAHO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 21
OPP 46
+1
99.7%
C.J. Reyes punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 11 , Hayden Weichers returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
99.8%
Rashad Hall run for 2 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
99.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for 3 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Rashad HallSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
99.7%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sage Burmeister at the IdaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 24TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:200% → 2%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
Justin Arias pass complete to Aaron Prier for 6 yds to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Xavier Finney run for no gain to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+13
99.7%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 13 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
98.5%
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 42 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Ronald Butler, broken up by Vai PekoSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
98.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+19
98.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 19 yds to the IdaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
98.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 44Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
98.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 42Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
98.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Damoun Patterson, broken up by Austin GravesSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
98.7%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Sage Burmeister at the IdaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 26MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
98.6%
KW Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 14Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+8
98.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to Josh Cook for 8 yds to the IdaSt 22Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+26
98.6%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 26 yds to the IdaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
98.5%
Justin Arias pass complete to Josh Cook for 16 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
98.5%
Justin Arias pass complete to Madison Mangum for 8 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
98.3%
Daniel McSurdy run for 3 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.3%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to KW Williams, broken up by Bryant HayesSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
98.4%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Aaron PrierSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
98.5%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Josh Cook, broken up by Devin CentersSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
98.8%
Zak Johnson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
Rashad Hall run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.6%
Rashad Hall run for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+25
98.6%
Rashad Hall run for 10 yds to the IdaSt 42 for a 1ST down IDAHO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the IdaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Damoun Patterson, broken up by Tavonte JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.6%
Chuckie Keeton run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-10
99.1%
NATSON, JoJo rush for 10 yards to the ISU30, out-of-bounds (Cody Sorensen), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
50
-5
99.1%
Chuckie Keeton sacked by Austin Graves and Tyler Kuder for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 45 UTAH ST Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sage Burmeister at the IdaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:17
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
99.0%
C.J. Reyes punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.1%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Xavier FinneySimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
99.1%
Xavier Finney run for 16 yds to the IdaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.0%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Broc MalcomSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-4
99.1%
Daniel McSurdy run for a loss of 4 yards to the IdaSt 26Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+9
99.1%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 9 yds to the IdaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.2%
Joe Hill run for 1 yd to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-3
99.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+9
99.2%
Chuckie Keeton run for 9 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 46 yds, downed at the IdaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.3%
Xavier Finney run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 22Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
99.3%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to KW Williams, PENALTY USU roughing passer declined, PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the ISU37, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.2%
Xavier Finney run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 46Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+15
99.2%
Justin Arias pass incomplete to Broc Malcom, PENALTY USU personal foul 15 yards to the USU39, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
99.2%
Xavier Finney run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-8
99.2%
Justin Arias sacked by Devin Centers for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 19
OPP 48
-1
99.3%
Justin Arias pass complete to Aaron Prier for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
99.3%
C.J. Reyes punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 31TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1499% → 100%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Jefferson Court for 10 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.3%
Rashad Hall run for 4 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
99.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 9 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.3%
Rashad Hall run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 48Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+7
99.3%
Rashad Hall run for 7 yds to the IdaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
99.3%
JoJo Natson run for 29 yds to the IdaSt 12 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the IdaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
99.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Ronald Butler for 7 yds to the IdaSt 15Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+5
99.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 32TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:270% → 1%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
100.0%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 15 yds to the IdaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
Justin Arias run for 5 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-5
99.9%
Justin Arias pass complete to Aaron Prier for 14 yards to the USU33 (HINES, Deshane), PENALTY ISU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ISU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+52
99.5%
Justin Arias pass complete to KW Williams for 52 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 33END OF GAME
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
99.4%
Kennedy Williams run for 34 yds to the IdaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
99.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 10 yds to the IdaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
99.6%
Kennedy Williams run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 22Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+3
99.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:43
Joe Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Diaz MISSED)
+2.3
TD · Q3 12:09
Justin Arias pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Davis return for 44 yds for a TD, (Nick Diaz KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q3 6:27
Justin Arias pass complete to Broc Malcom for 42 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com