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UNCO

Northern Colorado 12 at UNLV 13

UNLV
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadUNCO aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreUNCO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGSAFETYEnd of GameFG+1UNLV 92.4%Nicolai Bornand 54 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 10 · Q2 5:58
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Q2 5:58 · Nicolai Bornand 54 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+34.2Home team on offense+6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+1.6Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:55: Robert Holland run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Czapenski KICK) — UNCO win probability +14.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:22: Jonathan Leiva 35 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +2.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. SAFETY · Q4 10:54: Taylor Risner Safety — UNCO win probability +6.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:04: Timeout NORTHERN COLO, clock 01:04 — UNLV win probability +8.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Stephen Miller for 18 yds to the NoCol 38 for a 1ST down lat. to Robert Holland for 10 yds Robert Holland fumbled, recovered by NoCol N/A for a 1ST down — UNCO win probability +11.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 6UNCO made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UNCO 4th & 5 at UNCO 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43UNCO 4th & 10 at UNLV 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43UNLV 4th & 2 at UNCO 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:20UNCO 4th & 15 at UNCO 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:42UNCO 4th & 7 at UNLV 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:34UNLV 4th & 4 at UNCO 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:46UNCO 4th & 16 at UNCO 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:58UNLV 4th & 12 at UNCO 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:46UNCO 4th & 9 at UNCO 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:07UNCO 4th & 6 at UNCO 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:47UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:22UNLV 4th & 8 at UNCO 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−9.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNCO 4th & 13 at UNCO 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−2.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:45UNCO 4th & 2 at UNLV 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−4.2
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−18.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:15UNLV 4th & 4 at UNCO 7, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.0 ptsWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%−4.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−28.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNCO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:47UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:55UNCO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
96.0%
Robert Holland run for 4 yds to the NoCol 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
96.0%
Robert Holland run for 4 yds to the NoCol 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-3
96.0%
Dimitri Stimphil run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoCol 22Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
96.0%
Bailey Landwehr punt for 42 yds , Keith Whitely returns for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:5096% → 96%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
95.6%
Blake Decker run for 2 yds to the NoCol 14Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
95.6%
George Naufahu run for 6 yds to the NoCol 8Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
95.6%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the NoCol 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:045% → 5%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.4%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Dimitri Stimphil for 16 yds to the NoCol 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
95.4%
Sean Rubalcaba run for 8 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Peni Vea) to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
95.3%
Sean Rubalcaba run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 37Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
95.4%
Robert Holland run for no gain to the UNLV 37Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+5
95.4%
Sean Rubalcaba run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
95.0%
Seth Czapenski 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-9
95.1%
Blake Decker sacked by Mikhail Dubose and Lexington Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+8
95.1%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+5
95.0%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to DAVIS, Devante, PENALTY UNCO offside (Dominick Sierra) 5 yards to the LV36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
95.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 9 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
95.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+5
95.1%
Blake Decker run for 5 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+8
95.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 8 yds to the NoCol 47Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
95.1%
Logan Yunker punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
94.5%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Dimitri Stimphil for 12 yds to the NoCol 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
94.4%
Robert Holland run for 1 yd to the NoCol 33Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-2
94.5%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Robert Holland for a loss of 2 yards to the NoCol 31Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-4
94.6%
Sean Rubalcaba sacked by Peni Vea for a loss of 4 yards to the NoCol 27Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
94.6%
Bailey Landwehr punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
94.4%
George Naufahu run for 7 yds to the NoCol 48Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
94.4%
George Naufahu run for 5 yds to the NoCol 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
94.4%
Marcus Sullivan pass intercepted Robert Holland return for 3 yds to the NoCol 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 7FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:006% → 7%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
93.8%
Robert Holland run for 7 yds to the NoCol 38Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
93.6%
Robert Holland run for 3 yds to the NoCol 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
93.6%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Dimitri Stimphil for 28 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
93.2%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Malcolm Whye for 7 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+12
93.2%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Stephen Miller for 12 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
93.2%
Sean Rubalcaba pass incomplete to Stephen Miller, broken up by Kenneth PennySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-5
93.2%
Sean Rubalcaba pass incomplete to Stephen Miller, PENALTY UNCO illegal motion (Stephen Miller) 5 yards to the LV29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
93.1%
Sean Rubalcaba pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+3
93.3%
Sean Rubalcaba run for 3 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
92.8%
Seth Czapenski 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0092% → 93%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
92.4%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
92.5%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+9
92.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 9 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
92.7%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
92.7%
George Naufahu run for 4 yds to the NoCol 49Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
92.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to George NaufahuSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
92.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoCol 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
92.2%
Robert Holland run for 1 yd to the NoCol 29Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-7
92.2%
Sean Rubalcaba sacked by Siuea Vaesau and Trent Langham for a loss of 7 yards to the NoCol 22Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 16
OWN 22
0
92.5%
Sean Rubalcaba run for no gain to the NoCol 22Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 16
OWN 22
0
92.7%
Bailey Landwehr punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoCol 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3692% → 92%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
92.1%
DECKER, Blake pass complete to SULLIVAN, M. for 2 yards to the UNCO33, out-of-bounds (Dominick Sierra), PENALTY LV illegal block (DAVIS, Devante) 10 yards to the UNCO45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+8
91.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 8 yds to the NoCol 37Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
91.8%
Blake Decker sacked by Lexington Smith for 0 yards to the NoCol 37Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
91.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Marcus Sullivan, broken up by Brandon LenoirSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+54
92.4%
Nicolai Bornand 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:077% → 8%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
92.7%
Robert Holland run for 9 yds to the NoCol 26Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
92.5%
Robert Holland run for no gain to the NoCol 26Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+9
92.6%
Robert Holland run for 9 yds to the NoCol 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.5%
Robert Holland run for 1 yd to the NoCol 36Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
92.5%
Robert Holland run for 1 yd to the NoCol 37Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-1
92.7%
Sean Rubalcaba sacked by Brandon Willis for a loss of 1 yard to the NoCol 36Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.3%
Bailey Landwehr punt for 41 yds , Keith Whitely returns for no gain to the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:4892% → 92%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
91.9%
Keith Whitely run for 11 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
91.9%
Keith Whitely run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
50
+3
92.5%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the NoCol 47Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
92.5%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the NoCol 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
92.3%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Kyle Griffin return for no gain to the NoCol 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:378% → 8%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
92.0%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Dimitri Stimphil for 4 yds to the NoCol 16Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
92.0%
Robert Holland run for no gain to the NoCol 16Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
92.2%
Sean Rubalcaba pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon WillisSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
92.4%
Bailey Landwehr punt for 58 yds, downed at the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4491% → 92%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
91.4%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+13
91.7%
Blake Decker run for 13 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
91.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 9 yds to the NoCol 44Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-16
92.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete, broken up by Dominick Sierra UNLV Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15INT
12 plays · 59 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.7%
Blake Decker run for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
91.1%
George Naufahu run for 4 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
91.0%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
91.3%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
91.1%
Marcus Sullivan run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
91.5%
George Naufahu run for 9 yds to the NoCol 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
91.5%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the NoCol 39 for a 1ST down NORTHERN COLO Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
91.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 13 yds to the NoCol 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
91.6%
George Naufahu run for 3 yds to the NoCol 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
91.6%
Blake Decker run for 7 yds to the NoCol 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
91.6%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Ryan Gackle return for no gain to the NoCol 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 16TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 4:2611% → 27%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
89.4%
Robert Holland run for 14 yds to the NoCol 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
86.8%
Sean Rubalcaba pass incomplete to D. Stimphil (VEA, Peni), PENALTY LV pass interference off-setting, PENALTY UNCO illegal block off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
89.2%
Dimitri Stimphil run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoCol 16 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kenneth Penny) to the NoCol 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
88.9%
Robert Holland run for 4 yds to the NoCol 35Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
88.7%
Sean Rubalcaba pass intercepted by PENNY, Kenneth at the LV46, PENNY, Kenneth return to the LV38 (85), PENALTY LV offside declined, PENALTY LV pass interference (HASSON, Tajh) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN UNCO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
50
+9
87.7%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Quinn Zamora for 9 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
87.5%
Robert Holland run for no gain to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
87.6%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Dimitri Stimphil for 5 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
87.7%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Dimitri Stimphil for 33 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.2%
Robert Holland run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Czapenski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
80.0%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
79.9%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+10
79.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 10 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
81.7%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
81.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Marcus Sullivan, broken up by Ryan GackleSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+1
80.8%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
79.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ellis Onic II at the NoCol 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 18INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+19
75.0%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Dimitri Stimphil for 19 yds to the NoCol 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
74.2%
Sean Rubalcaba run for 4 yds to the NoCol 31Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
73.6%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Derek Vander Velde for 4 yds to the NoCol 35Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+21
73.6%
Sean Rubalcaba pass intercepted Mike Horsey return for 21 yds to the NoCol 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4680% → 80%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
79.8%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the NoCol 18Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-4
79.8%
Blake Decker run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoCol 22 Blake Decker fumbled, recovered by UNLV Blake DeckerSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+4
77.9%
Blake Decker run for 4 yds to the NoCol 18Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
80.2%
Jonathan Leiva 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:2221% → 20%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.4%
Robert Holland run for 8 yds to the NoCol 33Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
77.0%
Robert Holland run for 7 yds to the NoCol 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
77.3%
Robert Holland run for 9 yds to the NoCol 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
75.1%
Robert Holland run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
75.3%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Stephen Miller for 8 yards to the LV40 (PENNY, Kenneth), PENALTY UNCO illegal formation 5 yards to the UNCO47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-5
77.8%
NORTHERN COLO Penalty, false start (Sawyere Monson) to the NoCol 42Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 42
-4
78.5%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Robert Holland for a loss of 4 yards to the NoCol 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 38
+6
79.0%
Robert Holland run for 6 yds to the NoCol 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+5
79.3%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Malcolm Whye for 5 yds to the NoCol 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
80.1%
Bailey Landwehr punt for 49 yds, downed at the UNLV 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4179% → 73%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
79.4%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 3Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 3
-3
73.2%
Taylor Risner SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 22MISSED FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:0128% → 36%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
72.0%
Darius Graham run for 3 yds to the NoCol 34Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
71.6%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Stephen Miller for no gain to the UNCO34 (PENNY, Kenneth), PENALTY LV offside (SPARKMAN, J.) 0 yards to the UNCO34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
71.6%
Darius Graham run for 9 yds to the NoCol 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
69.4%
Darius Graham run for 4 yds to the NoCol 47Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+18
68.9%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Leonard Rhodes for 18 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
66.8%
Darius Graham run for 6 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+15
66.3%
Sean Rubalcaba run for 15 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
66.3%
Sean Rubalcaba pass incomplete to Derek Vander Velde, broken up by Trent LanghamSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
66.3%
Darius Graham run for 4 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
68.1%
Robert Holland run for 4 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
64.0%
Seth Czapenski 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23INT
19 plays · 73 yds · 5:3070% → 91%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.9%
George Naufahu run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
70.4%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
68.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Marcus Sullivan for 6 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
70.5%
George Naufahu run for 7 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+9
73.5%
George Naufahu run for 9 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
74.5%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 8
50
+10
74.7%
George Naufahu run for 10 yds to the NoCol 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
75.3%
NORTHERN COLO Penalty, (5 Yards) to the NoCol 35Similar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+1
77.0%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the NoCol 34Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+21
77.0%
Keith Whitely run for 21 yds to the NoCol 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
77.0%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd to the NoCol 12Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
85.1%
George Naufahu run for no gain to the NoCol 12Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+5
83.2%
Blake Decker run for 5 yds to the NoCol 7Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+15
90.8%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Courtney Hall return for 15 yds to the NoCol 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
79.3%
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Stephen Miller for 18 yds to the NoCol 38 for a 1ST down lat. to Robert Holland for 10 yds Robert Holland fumbled, recovered by NoCol N/A for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+20.7
TD · Q3 6:55
Robert Holland run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Czapenski KICK)
-14.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03
Sean Rubalcaba pass complete to Stephen Miller for 18 yds to the NoCol 38 for a 1ST down lat. to Robert Holland for 10 yds Robert Holland fumbled, recovered by NoCol N/A for a 1ST down
-11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com