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ASU

Arizona State 58 at New Mexico 23

UNM
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:17 · Matt Haack punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior−37.6Home team on offense−7.4Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:26: Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +2.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:09: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 32 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +2.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:49: Crusoe Gongbay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +2.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:08: Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 24 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez BLOCKED) — ASU win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:00: Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:34UNM 4th & 15 at ASU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:49ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:18UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:17ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:28UNM 4th & 7 at ASU 45, down 8
    Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:03ASU 4th & 2 at UNM 12, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:49UNM 4th & 17 at UNM 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:25ASU 4th & 6 at UNM 44, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:56UNM 4th & 2 at ASU 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:34ASU 4th & 6 at UNM 28, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:30UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:39UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:27UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:15ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 43, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:20ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35ASU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:12ASU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:37UNM Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:26ASU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:09UNM Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:49UNM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:00ASU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:00ASU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:214% → 6%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
4.1%
Gongbay, Crusoe rush for no gain to the NEWMEXICO25, PENALTY ARIZONAST personal foul 15 yards to the NEWMEXICO40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEWMEXICO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
4.2%
Clayton Mitchem run for 4 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
4.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
4.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
4.6%
Clayton Mitchem run for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+9
4.8%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+5
4.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-9
5.1%
Clayton Mitchem sacked by Armand Perry and Viliami Laiu Moeakiola for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 19
OPP 44
-1
5.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+5
5.3%
Clayton Mitchem run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 15
OPP 40
+8
5.5%
Zack Rogers punt for 29 yds , Damarious Randall returns for 8 yds to the ArzSt 32 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0394% → 95%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+52
5.6%
Taylor Kelly run for 52 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
5.5%
D.J. Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 15Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+7
5.7%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 7 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-5
5.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Sulka) to the NMex 13Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+12
5.9%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 12 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Deantre Lewis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two pt pass, De'Marieya Nelson pass to Zane Gonzalez GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:056% → 6%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
5.5%
Ridge Jones run for 21 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
5.7%
David Anaya run for 3 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
5.9%
Clayton Mitchem run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 32 Clayton Mitchem fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Marcus Hardison , return for 4 yds to the NMex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:2695% → 95%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incomplete to Jaelen StrongSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+20
5.5%
D.J. Foster run for 20 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
5.0%
Taylor Kelly run for 12 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:135% → 5%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
5.3%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 24 Lamar Jordan fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:1895% → 96%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
5.1%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+18
5.1%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Demario Richard for 18 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:144% → 6%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
4.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
50
+3
4.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+24
4.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 24 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
4.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
4.7%
David Anaya run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
4.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-1
4.7%
David Anaya run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
5.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4295% → 94%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.5%
D.J. Foster run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
5.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
5.6%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:216% → 6%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
5.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
5.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
5.8%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
5.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 40 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
6.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Teriyon GipsonSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
6.0%
Zack Rogers punt for 47 yds , Damarious Randall returns for no gain to the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 2:3494% → 96%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
5.8%
D.J. Foster run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 34 D.J. Foster fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
5.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 17 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
5.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+8
5.6%
D.J. Foster run for 8 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
5.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
5.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
5.7%
Cameron Smith run for 11 yds to the NMex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
5.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
5.7%
D.J. Foster run for 9 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
5.8%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
3.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:444% → 7%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+44
4.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 44 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
4.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-5
4.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 32 Teriyon Gipson fumbled, recovered by NMex Teriyon GipsonSimilar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+32
6.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 32 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
6.4%
Taylor Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24 Taylor Kelly fumbled, recovered by NMex Nik D'AvanzoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:167% → 10%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
7.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
7.3%
David Anaya run for no gain to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 15
OPP 29
0
7.3%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+15
7.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 15 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
7.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
10.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2291% → 90%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.8%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
8.8%
Taylor Kelly sacked by Javarie Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
9.5%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
9.9%
Matt Haack punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1711% → 10%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
10.6%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-4
10.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-5
9.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Reno Henderson) to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+11
9.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
9.7%
Zack Rogers punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 1:1290% → 92%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
9.6%
Taylor Kelly run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
9.1%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+14
9.5%
Taylor Kelly run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
8.8%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 39 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
8.3%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to D.J. Foster for 6 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
8.4%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
8.6%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
8.3%
Zane Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4391% → 95%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
9.3%
D.J. Foster run for 49 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
8.8%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
9.0%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
5.5%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 24 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:436% → 7%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
6.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
6.2%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 3 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+13
6.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 13 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
6.9%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 41 Lamar Jordan fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Laiu MoeakiolaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
1 play · 41 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
2.5%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:413% → 2%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
2.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 13 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
2.8%
David Anaya run for 11 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
2.7%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+1
2.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
2.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 17
OWN 36
+1
2.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 49 yds , Damarious Randall returns for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0598% → 98%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
2.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
2.0%
Taylor Kelly run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
2.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
1.7%
D.J. Foster run for 15 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
1.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-10
1.6%
Taylor Kelly run for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 49 Taylor Kelly fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Taylor KellySimilar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+7
1.6%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 7 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
1.7%
Taylor Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:242% → 2%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
2.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.3%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
2.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
2.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
2.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+8
2.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 8 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
2.4%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
2.4%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+2
2.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+1
2.1%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:0699% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
1.4%
D.J. Foster run for 25 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
1.3%
D.J. Foster run for 12 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
1.3%
Deantre Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+12
1.2%
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 12 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
1.2%
Deantre Lewis run for 8 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
1.2%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
1.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-5
1.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+44
1.2%
Zane Gonzalez 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:582% → 1%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
1.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the NMex 14Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+5
1.4%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+7
1.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+5
1.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 5 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
1.3%
Zack Rogers punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:1299% → 100%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
1.0%
Taylor Kelly run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
0.9%
Frederick Gammage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+42
0.9%
D.J. Foster run for 42 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
0.8%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+7
0.8%
Deantre Lewis run for 7 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
0.9%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
D. Foster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Z. Gonzalez BLOCKED)Similar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
0.1%
Brandon Branch return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 14 yds to the NMex 39 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 11
OWN 24
+4
0.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for no gain to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Zack Rogers punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jacom Brimhall at the ArzSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.2%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
0.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Ronald Lewis for 6 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
0.1%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
0.1%
Demario Richard run for 46 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
0.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Zack Rogers punt for 36 yds , Jacom Brimhall returns for no gain to the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.1%
Kyle Middlebrooks run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
Kyle Middlebrooks run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
0.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Mike Bercovici punt for 31 yds, downed at the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
0.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:00
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Cameron Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q3 13:08
Taylor Kelly pass complete to Jaelen Strong for 24 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez BLOCKED)
-3.5
TD · Q2 4:49
Crusoe Gongbay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com