Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 27 at Utah 59

UTAH
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:50 · Tom Hackett punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+4.8Pregame prior+23.6Score differential+2.7Garbage-time factor+1.5Blowout margin−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:56: Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 38 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +3.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:31: Travis Wilson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 24 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:19: Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +5.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:29: Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 36 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +4.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:34: Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:33UTAH 4th & 17 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:33FRES 4th & 18 at FRES 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:02FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:56FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:50UTAH 4th & 12 at UTAH 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:11FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:43UTAH 4th & 1 at FRES 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−1.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 4 at UTAH 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:00UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:48FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:31UTAH 4th & 1 at FRES 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−1.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:22FRES 4th & 11 at UTAH 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:31UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 23, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.6
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:53UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 31, up 24
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:34FRES 4th & 2 at UTAH 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:15UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 23, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 16, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 8 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:02UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:31UTAH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:19FRES Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:29UTAH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:34UTAH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:37UTAH Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:21FRES Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:55UTAH Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:23FRES Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:40UTAH Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
77.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
77.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
77.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 45 yds , Kaelin Clay returns for 14 yds to the Utah 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:4178% → 78%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
77.8%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 41 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
77.8%
Travis Wilson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
77.8%
Delshawn McClellon run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-10
77.8%
Wilson, Travis rush for 13 yards to the FS7, PENALTY UTAH holding (Oliver, Keith) 10 yards to the FS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 17
OPP 30
0
77.8%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+47
77.5%
Andy Phillips 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.6%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
77.6%
Brian Burrell sacked by Clint Shepard for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-6
77.6%
Brian Burrell sacked by Hunter Dimick for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
77.7%
Garrett Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kaelin Clay at the Utah 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:0178% → 79%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
77.5%
Travis Wilson run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
77.6%
Bubba Poole run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
77.6%
Bubba Poole run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
77.6%
Bubba Poole run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
77.6%
Dres Anderson run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+15
77.6%
Travis Wilson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Xavier Ulutu) to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
77.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Donavon Lewis) to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 5
OPP 6
-1
77.6%
Travis Wilson sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
77.6%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
78.5%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.1%
Josh Quezada run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
78.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
78.3%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
78.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 29 yds, downed at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:0779% → 82%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
78.7%
Travis Wilson run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
78.7%
Travis Wilson sacked by Tyeler Davison for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 42 UTAH Penalty, intentional grounding (Travis Wilson) to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+4
78.5%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+38
82.0%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 38 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.6%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
81.6%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
81.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.4%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
82.4%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
82.2%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 9 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
82.7%
Travis Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 38Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
82.6%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Devontae BookerSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
82.3%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
82.0%
Tom Hackett punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
82.9%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 13
OWN 6
0
83.0%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+6
83.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for 6 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
82.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
50
+11
84.3%
Bubba Poole run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
84.2%
Bubba Poole run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
84.3%
Bubba Poole run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.3%
Travis Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
84.2%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Kenneth ScottSimilar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+9
84.0%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 9 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
83.7%
Bubba Poole run for no gain to the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 55 yds · 0:0416% → 16%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
84.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
84.5%
Brandon Connette run for no gain to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
84.6%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 9 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
84.2%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+2
83.8%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
84.1%
Brandon Connette run for 13 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
83.7%
Brandon Connette run for 8 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+7
83.6%
Brandon Connette run for 7 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
83.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
83.3%
Brandon Connette run for 5 yds to the Utah 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-1
83.6%
Brandon Connette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.0%
Bubba Poole run for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Dres AndersonSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
86.6%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Bubba Poole for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 25Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Tom Hackett punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.9%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Josh Harper, broken up by Justin ThomasSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
86.1%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Malique MicenheimerSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Malique MicenheimerSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+28
86.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 43 yds FRESNO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (Charles Washington) to the Utah 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:4788% → 92%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
88.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 9 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+16
88.1%
Devontae Booker run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
88.1%
Devontae Booker run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
88.1%
Devontae Booker run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
87.9%
Devontae Booker run for no gain to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+24
92.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 24 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:129% → 15%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
90.9%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Marteze Waller for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+40
90.8%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 40 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
90.0%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the Utah 15Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+13
90.1%
CONNETTE, Brand pass incomplete to HARPER, Josh (Rowe, Eric), PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Rowe, Eric) 13 yards to the UTAH2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.9%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:5088% → 94%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
88.1%
Devontae Booker run for 11 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
89.0%
Devontae Booker run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
50
+3
89.4%
Devontae Booker run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
89.3%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
89.3%
Travis Wilson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
94.1%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 36 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
92.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+8
92.6%
Brandon Connette run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
92.2%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 4 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
92.2%
CONNETTE, Brand pass incomplete to HARPER, Josh, PENALTY UTAH holding (Rowe, Eric) 10 yards to the FS43, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
92.2%
Brandon Connette run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+11
92.2%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 11 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
92.0%
Josh Quezada run for 1 yd to the Utah 46Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-2
92.0%
Brandon Connette sacked by Filipo Mokofisi for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 48Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
92.3%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete, broken up by Nate OrchardSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
92.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kaelin Clay at the Utah 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:4495% → 96%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
95.0%
Bubba Poole run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 13 UTAH Penalty, tripping ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+4
95.5%
Bubba Poole run for 4 yds to the Utah 17Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+6
95.7%
Travis Wilson run for 6 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
95.6%
Tom Hackett punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.9%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Aaron Peck for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.8%
Travis Wilson pass incomplete to Dres AndersonSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
94.8%
Travis Wilson run for 8 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
94.9%
Travis Wilson run for 1 yd to the Utah 31Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Tom Hackett punt for 65 yds, downed at the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FUMBLE
9 plays · -3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
93.8%
LeKendrick Williams run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
93.9%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Marteze Waller for 5 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
93.7%
Brandon Connette run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
93.7%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
93.4%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
93.7%
Brandon Connette run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.5%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to LeKendrick WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
93.7%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Marteze Waller for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 12
OWN 27
-26
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 26 yards to the FrsSt 1 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Utah Nate OrchardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3297% → 99%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-5
96.6%
UTAH Penalty, false start (Jeremiah Poutasi) to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
96.4%
Devontae Booker run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Dres Anderson for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.2%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.2%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.2%
CONNETTE, Brand pass incomplete to PECK, Aaron, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Hatfield, Dom.) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.2%
Brandon Connette run for 3 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
99.2%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
99.1%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-6
99.2%
Brandon Connette sacked by Jason Fanaika for a loss of 6 yards to the Utah 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.6%
Kendal Thompson run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.6%
Bubba Poole run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+12
99.6%
Kendal Thompson run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.6%
Bubba Poole run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
99.6%
Bubba Poole run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
99.6%
Kendal Thompson pass incomplete to Westlee TongaSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
99.7%
Kendal Thompson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
99.7%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Harper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.7%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Greg Watson for 16 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.7%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Quezada for 9 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+6
99.6%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Josh Quezada for 6 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
99.6%
CONNETTE, Brand pass incomplete to PECK, Aaron, PENALTY FS pass interference (WILLIAMS, LeKen) 15 yards to the FS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+53
99.7%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Aaron Peck for 53 yds to the Utah 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.3%
Josh Quezada run for no gain to the Utah 1Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Brandon Connette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.7%
Troy McCormick run for 3 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
Kendal Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 23Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Kendal Thompson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Tom Hackett punt for 57 yds, downed at the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
99.8%
Brandon Connette sacked by Hunter Dimick for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+2
99.8%
Brandon Connette run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Dillon RootSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds , Bubba Poole returns for no gain to the Utah 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 28TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Tim Patrick for 13 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.8%
Troy McCormick run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Kendal Thompson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+45
99.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Andre Lewis for 45 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
Brian Burrell sacked by Pita Taumoepenu and Wallace Gonzalez for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
99.8%
BURRELL, Brian pass incomplete to LAZARUS, Michae, PENALTY UTAH holding (Orphey, Davion) 10 yards to the FS30, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for 23 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Dillon RootSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+42
99.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 42 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 30TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 9:38100% → 100%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.8%
Troy McCormick run for 1 yd to the Utah 24Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
99.8%
Troy McCormick run for 4 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+8
99.8%
Kendal Thompson run for 8 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.8%
Troy McCormick run for 3 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
99.8%
Kendal Thompson run for 4 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
99.8%
Troy McCormick run for 5 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
99.8%
Troy McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 47Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+9
99.8%
Kendal Thompson run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
Kendal Thompson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
99.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Siale Fakailoatonga for 26 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
99.8%
Troy McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+7
99.8%
Kendal Thompson run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+3
99.8%
Kendal Thompson pass complete to Delshawn McClellon for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
99.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (3 Yards) to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Troy McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 31TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
100.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for 7 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+18
100.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Dillon Root for 18 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
100.0%
BURRELL, Brian pass incomplete to SCOTT, Da'Mari, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Williams, Tavar) 15 yards to the UTAH42, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
100.0%
BURRELL, Brian sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UTAH43 (Lotulelei, Lowe), PENALTY UTAH offside (Taumoepenu,Pita) 5 yards to the UTAH37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 5
OPP 37
-8
99.9%
Brian Burrell sacked by Pita Taumoepenu for a loss of 8 yards to the Utah 45Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+22
100.0%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Quezada for 7 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Uaea Masina) to the Utah 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
99.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 14 yds to the Utah 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by Tavaris WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 0
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
BURRELL, Brian sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UTAH11 (Allen, Brian), PENALTY UTAH face mask (Allen, Brian) 5 yards to the UTAH4, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Greg Watson for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:19
Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q2 4:29
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 36 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 7:31
Travis Wilson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 24 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com