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AF

Air Force 13 at Wyoming 17

WYO
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:55 · Will Conant punt for 64 yds , Jalen Claiborne returns for 1 yd to the Wyom 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−5.8Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Pregame prior−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:11: Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 11 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK) — WYO win probability +9.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q4 3:25: Will Conant 32 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +20.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:25: Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — WYO win probability +10.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:58: Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to J.D. Krill for 3 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK) — WYO win probability +54.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:58: Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette — AF win probability +13.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 9 of 10AF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:49AF 4th & 23 at WYO 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52AF 4th & 6 at WYO 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:52WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:19AF 4th & 5 at WYO 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:19AF 4th & 9 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:34WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:38AF 4th & 17 at AF 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:21WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:31AF 4th & 14 at AF 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:31WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:01AF 4th & 10 at WYO 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:01WYO 4th & 1 at AF 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−4.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−13.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:55AF 4th & 8 at AF 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−3.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:40WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.7%−3.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:15WYO 4th & 10 at AF 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−4.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−15.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:25AF 4th & 15 at WYO 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−7.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−26.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:12AF 4th & 1 at WYO 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−13.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−14.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:41AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:11WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:58WYO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1152% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
48.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 20 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
48.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
48.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
48.2%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the Wyom 19Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
48.3%
PEARSON, Kale rush for 19 yards to the WY0, clock 13:10, PENALTY AF illegal motion 5 yards to the WY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 14
OPP 24
-4
48.4%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 28Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 18
OPP 28
-5
48.5%
Kale Pearson sacked by Patrick Mertens for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 33Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 23
OPP 33
+50
48.8%
Will Conant 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
48.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 4 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
48.7%
Shaun Wick run for 1 yd to the Wyom 33Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
48.5%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+4
48.4%
Ethan Wood punt for 50 yds , Jalen Robinette returns for 4 yds to the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0951% → 51%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+34
48.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 34 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
48.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+17
48.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Alex Ludowig for 17 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
48.2%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
48.2%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the Wyom 17Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-4
48.3%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 21Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
48.7%
Will Conant 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
48.8%
D.J. May run for 2 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
48.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 9 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
49.0%
MAY, D.J. rush for no gain to the WY32 (MAYS, Jordan;STEELHAMMER, We), PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the WY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 20
OWN 22
-1
48.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 21Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 21
OWN 21
0
48.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 21
OWN 21
0
48.4%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Dominic RufranSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 21
OWN 21
0
48.2%
Ethan Wood punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
48.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
48.2%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
48.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 10 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
48.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
48.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-2
48.1%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 40Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
48.8%
Will Conant punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1649% → 48%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
48.6%
Shaun Wick run for 2 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+15
48.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 15 yds to the Wyom 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Dominic RufranSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
48.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 6 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
48.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
48.2%
Ethan Wood punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:3352% → 51%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
48.0%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
48.2%
Garrett Brown run for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+18
48.8%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 18 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
47.1%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
47.1%
Broam Hart run for 5 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-4
47.5%
Kale Pearson sacked by Jordan Stanton for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 9
50
0
49.1%
Will Conant punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
49.3%
D.J. May run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 5Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+9
49.2%
Shaun Wick run for 9 yds to the Wyom 14Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 2
OWN 14
-1
48.7%
D.J. May run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 13Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
48.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:5853% → 62%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
47.4%
Kale Pearson run for 8 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
47.0%
Broam Hart run for 1 yd to the Wyom 45Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
47.2%
Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.1%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
47.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+6
47.4%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 6 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
46.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+16
46.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 16 yds to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
46.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 6 yds to the Wyom 3Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3039% → 51%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.1%
Shaun Wick run for 12 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
39.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 41 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
42.2%
Shaun Wick run for 4 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
42.2%
Dominic Rufran run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
41.0%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 5 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
42.2%
Shaun Wick run for no gain to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
42.2%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Dominic RufranSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
51.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 11 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:3353% → 51%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
47.4%
BROWN, Garrett rush for 4 yards to the AF29 (SAMPSON, Jesse), PENALTY AF personal foul 10 yards to the AF15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
47.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
47.9%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
47.9%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Darrenn WhiteSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+1
48.7%
Will Conant punt for 47 yds , Jalen Claiborne returns for 1 yd to the Wyom 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
47.5%
D.J. May run for 3 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
48.9%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 7 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
49.2%
Shaun Wick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 43Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
47.1%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+5
46.0%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 5 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 8
OWN 48
-5
46.2%
WYOMING Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Wyom 43Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
45.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 51 yds, downed at the AFA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
45.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
47.0%
D.J. May run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
46.6%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+12
45.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 12 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
46.0%
Ethan Wood punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
45.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
44.0%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 8 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
43.2%
PEARSON, Kale pass complete to GRIFFIN, Garret for 40 yards to the WY21, out-of-bounds (BURNS, Blair;WHITE, Darrenn), PENALTY AF illegal formation 5 yards to the AF34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+1
45.1%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
45.4%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
46.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Alex LudowigSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
47.4%
Will Conant punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jalen Claiborne at the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
45.9%
Shaun Wick run for 2 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
45.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 9 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
46.4%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Keenan Montgomery for 4 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
48.0%
Shaun Wick run for 3 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
47.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Keenan MontgomerySimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
45.2%
Ethan Wood punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
43.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
43.5%
Garrett Brown run for 9 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
42.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
41.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
41.6%
Colton Huntsman run for 6 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
40.8%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Alex LudowigSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
42.1%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Alex LudowigSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
44.8%
Will Conant punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:3846% → 46%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
45.6%
D.J. May run for 1 yd to the Wyom 21Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
45.4%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Dominic RufranSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+41
43.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 41 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
50.5%
D.J. May run for 7 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
51.9%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
49.9%
Shaun Wick run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
45.6%
D.J. May run for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
39.9%
Garrett Brown run for 6 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+1
38.8%
Broam Hart run for 1 yd to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-5
39.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
41.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+1
43.3%
Will Conant punt for 64 yds , Jalen Claiborne returns for 1 yd to the Wyom 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
40.8%
Shaun Wick run for 3 yds to the Wyom 9Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+15
40.5%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to J.D. Krill for 15 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.3%
Shaun Wick run for no gain to the Wyom 24Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
41.8%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 5 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
41.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to J.D. KrillSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
39.6%
Ethan Wood punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2061% → 61%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
38.6%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
37.8%
Garrett Brown run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
37.4%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
39.2%
Broam Hart run for no gain to the AFA 42 Broam Hart fumbled, forced by Jordan Stanton, recovered by Wyom Patrick MertensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3948% → 56%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
48.0%
D.J. May run for 5 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+21
48.0%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 21 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
50.4%
D.J. May run for 1 yd to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-1
50.4%
D.J. May run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
47.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to D.J. MaySimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
56.4%
Stuart Williams 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23FG
19 plays · 60 yds · 7:5050% → 77%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.0%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
48.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
49.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Alex LudowigSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
48.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+17
47.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 17 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
44.4%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
43.7%
Broam Hart run for 4 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
44.0%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
42.5%
Devin Rushing run for 5 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
41.9%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
43.9%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
41.9%
Kale Pearson run for 9 yds to the Wyom 11Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
41.9%
Broam Hart run for 3 yds to the Wyom 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
41.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Wyom 5Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
41.9%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 6Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
44.0%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 15Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
23.5%
Will Conant 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2734% → 95%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
33.5%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
50
+8
39.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Shaun Wick for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
40.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Dominic Rufran for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
40.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass incomplete to Jake MaulhardtSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
40.3%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Jalen Claiborne for 13 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
43.0%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 20 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
43.0%
Shaun Wick run for 2 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.5%
Shaun Wick run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.7%
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to J.D. Krill for 3 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25FUMBLE
10 plays · 62 yds · 0:4619% → 19%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.0%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
78.2%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
78.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Alex Ludowig for 23 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
73.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Cody Apfel for 9 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
79.3%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Alex Ludowig, broken up by Patrick MertensSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+16
81.3%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 16 yds Garrett Griffin fumbled, forced by Devyn Harris, recovered by Wyom Darrenn WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:58
Colby Kirkegaard pass complete to J.D. Krill for 3 yds for a TD, (Stuart Williams KICK)
+54.9
FG · Q4 3:25
Will Conant 32 yd FG GOOD
-20.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com