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USU

Utah State 7 at Tennessee 38

TENN
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2014 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:09 · Jaron Bentrude punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+3.6Pregame prior+17.1Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:23: Pig Howard 8 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +1.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 9:09: Brendan Downs 12 Yd pass from Justin Worley (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +2.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:00: Aaron Medley 36 Yd Field Goal — TENN win probability +3.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:00: Marlin Lane run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 28 — TENN win probability +2.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:31: Von Pearson 14 Yd pass from Justin Worley (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:43TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45USU 4th & 9 at USU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:32USU 4th & 5 at USU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:55TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:09USU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 14
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:09TENN 4th & 3 at USU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:16USU 4th & 1 at USU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:10TENN 4th & 10 at USU 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:59USU 4th & 3 at USU 30, down 14
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:41TENN 4th & 9 at USU 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:03USU 4th & 11 at USU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:09TENN 4th & 6 at USU 37, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−0.7
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:00TENN 4th & 10 at USU 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:31USU 4th & 3 at TENN 30, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49USU 4th & 12 at USU 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:52TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 40, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:52USU 4th & 20 at USU 20, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:56TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:50USU 4th & 6 at USU 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:31TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:23TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:09TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:31TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:51TENN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:16USU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:36TENN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0271% → 71%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
70.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 2 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-5
70.6%
Justin Worley sacked by Nick Vigil for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
70.5%
Matt Darr punt for 53 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4030% → 30%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
70.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 8 yds to the UthSt 40 UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (JoJo Natson) to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 12
OWN 30
-5
70.5%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+8
70.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
70.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Brandon SwindallSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
70.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1470% → 72%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
70.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 12 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
70.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marlin Lane for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
70.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+7
70.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+38
70.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Smith for 38 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
72.3%
Pig Howard 8 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
74.0%
Brendan Downs 12 Yd pass from Justin Worley (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1227% → 25%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.4%
Joe Hill run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
74.0%
Chuckie Keeton run for no gain to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
74.6%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
74.8%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2775% → 76%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
75.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
75.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-2
75.7%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
75.7%
Matt Darr punt for 47 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3625% → 24%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
75.5%
Keeton, Chuckie pass incomplete to Sharp, Hunter, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (Coleman, Justin) 15 yards to the UTAHST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
75.4%
Chuckie Keeton run for 11 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
75.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Ronald Butler for 4 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
75.3%
Rashad Hall run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 4
50
0
75.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Ronald ButlerSimilar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 4
50
0
76.0%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:4677% → 78%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
77.1%
Marlin Lane run for 9 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+8
77.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 8 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
77.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 5 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
77.7%
Justin Worley run for 6 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
78.0%
Marlin Lane run for 2 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
78.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
77.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-5
77.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+14
78.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 14 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
78.3%
Matt Darr punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4323% → 22%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
77.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 4 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
77.6%
Joe Hill run for 2 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+13
77.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 13 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
77.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Ronald ButlerSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
77.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 9 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
77.5%
Joe Hill run for no gain to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-1
78.3%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5781% → 81%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
80.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 19 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
80.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Smith for 2 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-9
81.1%
Justin Worley sacked by Travis Seefeldt for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+7
80.7%
Justin Worley run for 7 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
80.6%
Aaron Medley 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5421% → 19%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
79.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-1
80.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Joe Hill for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+6
80.5%
Chuckie Keeton run for 6 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
80.6%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:0982% → 81%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
81.6%
Worley, Justin pass incomplete to Wolf, Ethan, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Suite, Brian) 8 yards to the TENNESSEE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 2
OWN 43
0
82.3%
Justin Worley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+15
81.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 15 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.1%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
82.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 1 yd to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
81.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
81.1%
Matt Darr punt for 34 yds, fair catch by JoJo Natson at the UthSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3019% → 18%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
81.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+12
81.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Ronald Butler for 12 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
81.1%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Brandon SwindallSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
81.4%
Chuckie Keeton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 18Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
81.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
81.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3883% → 83%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
82.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
83.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
83.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
83.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 5 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
83.6%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-5
83.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Daniel Helm) to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
83.2%
Matt Darr punt for 25 yds, downed at the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3217% → 17%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
83.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Joe Hill for 2 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+9
83.2%
JoJo Natson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
83.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass intercepted Cameron Sutton return for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:1185% → 89%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.9%
Pig Howard pass incomplete to Devrin YoungSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
84.9%
Worley, Justin pass incomplete to Pearson, Von, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Centers, Devin) 15 yards to the UTAHST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.7%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
85.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
85.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 12 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
85.9%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
86.0%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
85.4%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh Smith TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
88.7%
Aaron Medley 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:3814% → 14%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
86.0%
Joe Hill run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
85.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 4 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:1314% → 12%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
86.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for no gain to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
87.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Bill Vavau) to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+16
87.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for 16 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
86.5%
Chuckie Keeton run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+14
87.1%
Joe Hill run for 14 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
86.7%
Joe Hill run for 7 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
86.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for no gain to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
87.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
87.8%
Jake Thompson 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:2991% → 97%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
90.6%
Marlin Lane run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+14
90.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 14 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
91.3%
Pig Howard run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+6
91.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 6 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
91.7%
Worley, Justin pass complete to Smith, Josh for 3 yards to the UTAHST48, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Centers, Devin) 4 yards to the UTAHST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
92.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 8 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-5
92.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Colton Jumper) to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
92.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
92.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 7 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
92.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+4
92.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+8
93.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 8 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+6
93.0%
Marlin Lane run for 6 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
93.2%
Marlin Lane run for 1 yd to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+6
93.3%
Justin Worley run for 6 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
97.2%
Von Pearson 14 Yd pass from Justin Worley (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:573% → 3%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.0%
Chuckie Keeton run for 4 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
96.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Ronald Butler for 13 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
97.0%
Joe Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
97.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+2
97.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to JoJo Natson for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
97.4%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:4498% → 100%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
97.9%
Devrin Young run for 6 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
98.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+27
98.0%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 27 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
98.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Smith for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+4
98.2%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
98.4%
Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+11
98.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 11 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Jalen Hurd 15 Yd pass from Justin Worley (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:180% → 2%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
99.8%
JoJo Natson run for 38 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.2%
Hunter Sharp 37 Yd pass from Chuckie Keeton (Nick Diaz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
98.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 5 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
98.6%
Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+5
98.7%
Marlin Lane run for 5 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.7%
Justin Worley run for 9 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
98.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Brendan DownsSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+6
98.7%
Matt Darr punt for 35 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:181% → 1%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Rashad HallSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+23
98.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass intercepted A.J. Johnson return for 23 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3299% → 100%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
98.9%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Marlin Lane 7 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 25 Chuckie Keeton fumbled, recovered by UthSt JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton sacked by Vic Wharton for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Justus Pickett run for 7 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Justus Pickett run for 2 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 3 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Justus Pickett run for no gain to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Justus Pickett run for 2 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Daniel Helm for no gain to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Matt Darr punt for 28 yds, downed at the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Brandon SwindallSimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Jaron Bentrude punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob Carter at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for no gain to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Matt Darr punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hayden Weichers at the UthSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30END OF HALF
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 9 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
100.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 8 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:31
Von Pearson 14 Yd pass from Justin Worley (Aaron Medley Kick)
+3.8
FG · Q2 1:00
Aaron Medley 36 Yd Field Goal
+3.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:00
Marlin Lane run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 28
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com