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NAU

Northern Arizona 7 at San Diego State 38

SDSU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:03 · Ben Sweet punt for 32 yds, downed at the SDSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+35.7Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:29: Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 13:19: Donny Hageman 48 yd FG GOOD NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — SDSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:29: Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Robert Craighead for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:36: Casey Jahn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Hawkins KICK) — NAU win probability +3.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:45: Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:53NAU 4th & 7 at NAU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03NAU 4th & 1 at SDSU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47NAU 4th & 8 at SDSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:19SDSU 4th & 15 at NAU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:19NAU 4th & 7 at SDSU 44, down 17
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:19SDSU 4th & 17 at NAU 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:52NAU 4th & 11 at NAU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:36SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:41NAU 4th & 7 at NAU 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:41NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 48, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:05SDSU 4th & 4 at NAU 37, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:58NAU 4th & 3 at SDSU 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:03SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:29SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:29SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:36NAU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:45SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
89.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
89.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
89.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
89.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
89.1%
Joel Alesi punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoArz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.5%
Casey Jahn run for 3 yds to the NoArz 28Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.5%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Nick ButierSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.5%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
88.6%
Ben Sweet punt for 38 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:5588% → 89%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
88.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
88.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
88.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Adam Roberts for 7 yds to the NoArz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
88.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 8 yds to the NoArz 41Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+5
88.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
88.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 15 yds to the NoArz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
88.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the NoArz 20Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+15
88.5%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass incomplete to JUDGE, Eric, PENALTY NAU pass interference 15 yards to the NAU5, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
88.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the NoArz 1Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
88.1%
Casey Jahn run for 6 yds to the NoArz 41Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
87.9%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
88.0%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Beau Gardner for 6 yds to the NoArz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
87.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Ify Umodu for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
87.8%
Casey Jahn run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
87.9%
Nick Butier run for no gain to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Ben Sweet punt for 32 yds, downed at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 3:1988% → 90%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
87.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 14 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
87.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 15 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
88.1%
Lloyd Mills run for 33 yds to the NoArz 26 Lloyd Mills fumbled, forced by Darius Lewis, recovered by SDSt N/A for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
88.2%
Chase Price run for 21 yds to the NoArz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the NoArz 2Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.2%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the NoArz 1Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.0%
Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:4211% → 11%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.2%
Kyren Poe sacked by Derek Largent for a loss of 5 yards to the NoArz 20Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+50
89.3%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Alex Holmes for 50 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
88.6%
Casey Jahn run for 2 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
88.4%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Casey JahnSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
88.8%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Alex HolmesSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
89.0%
Ryan Hawkins 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by N/A return for no gain to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:2890% → 91%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
89.9%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass incomplete to RUFFIN, Ezell, PENALTY NAU holding 10 yards to the SDSU41, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
90.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds to the NoArz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
90.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
90.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoArz 31Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
89.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Larry ClarkSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
91.4%
Donny Hageman 48 yd FG GOOD NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.2%
Casey Jahn run for 7 yds to the NoArz 32Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
90.9%
Casey Jahn run for 4 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
91.0%
Kyren Poe run for 2 yds to the NoArz 38Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
90.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Casey Jahn for 7 yds to the NoArz 45Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
90.7%
Casey Jahn run for 8 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
90.7%
Corbin Jountti run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-4
90.6%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Casey Jahn for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
90.8%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Micah SeauSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
91.0%
Ben Sweet punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:3493% → 93%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
92.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
92.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
92.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 8 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
92.6%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
92.8%
KAEHLER, Quinn pass incomplete to RUFFIN, Ezell, PENALTY NAU pass interference 15 yards to the NAU47, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
92.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 14 yds to the NoArz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
92.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
92.8%
Chase Price run for no gain to the NoArz 26Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+4
92.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 4 yds to the NoArz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
93.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Randy Hale Jr.Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
93.5%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the NoArz 18Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-11
93.4%
Quinn Kaehler sacked by Siupeli Anau and John Herrero for a loss of 11 yards to the NoArz 29Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 17
OPP 29
+46
93.1%
Donny Hageman 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -29 yds · 1:278% → 8%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
91.7%
Casey Jahn run for 2 yds to the NoArz 33Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+8
91.7%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Casey Jahn for 8 yds to the NoArz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.6%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Alex Holmes, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
91.7%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Alex Holmes, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-1
91.9%
Casey Jahn run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 40Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+10
92.1%
Ben Sweet punt for 45 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1393% → 97%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
93.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Ezell Ruffin for 19 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
93.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 9 yds to the NoArz 47Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+31
93.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 31 yds to the NoArz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
93.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 14 yds to the NoArz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Robert Craighead for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
95.6%
Casey Jahn run for 1 yd to the NoArz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.6%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 5 yds to the NoArz 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
95.5%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Alex HolmesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
95.6%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Casey JahnSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+5
95.7%
Ben Sweet punt for 41 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 5 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
96.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 6 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
96.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
96.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
96.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric Judge, broken up by Blake BaileySimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
96.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the NoArz 46Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
96.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted Eddie Horn return for 1 yd to the NoArz 45 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:363% → 7%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
97.1%
Elijah Marks run for 10 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.0%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Alex HolmesSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.0%
Casey Jahn run for 3 yds to the NoArz 39Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+19
97.0%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Ify Umodu for 19 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
96.9%
Casey Jahn run for 7 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+6
96.5%
Kyren Poe run for 6 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
96.5%
Corbin Jountti run for 21 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.5%
Corbin Jountti run for 3 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.9%
Casey Jahn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell Ruffin, broken up by Shawn SharkeySimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
95.1%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
94.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Ezell RuffinSimilar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Joel Alesi punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoArz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 17INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
94.5%
Casey Jahn run for 13 yds to the NoArz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
94.2%
Corbin Jountti run for 5 yds to the NoArz 38Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Casey Jahn run for no gain to the NoArz 38Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
94.2%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Alex Holmes for 7 yds to the NoArz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
94.1%
Marquice Paige run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 44Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+12
94.2%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Casey Jahn for 12 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
93.9%
Casey Jahn run for 6 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-1
93.7%
Casey Jahn run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+64
94.0%
Kyren Poe pass intercepted Calvin Munson return for 64 yds to the NoArz 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
98.7%
MCMORROW, Seamu kickoff 65 yards to the NAU0, Elijah Marks return to the NAU19 (PORTER, Brandon), PENALTY SDSU offside 5 yards to the SDSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:592% → 0%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
98.5%
Casey Jahn run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-3
98.7%
Marquice Paige run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoArz 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+8
98.7%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Alex Holmes for 8 yds to the NoArz 30Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+67
99.9%
Ben Sweet punt for 37 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for 67 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 5 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 4 yds to the NoArz 30Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+13
99.8%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Nick Butier for 13 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 5 yds to the NoArz 48Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-7
99.8%
Marquice Paige run for 3 yds to the SANDIEGOST 49 NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the NoArz 41Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass incomplete to Casey Jahn, broken up by Sam MeredithSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
Kyren Poe run for 7 yds to the NoArz 48Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Ben Sweet punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 53 yds · 9:36100% → 100%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+9
99.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 9 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+18
99.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Paul Pitts for 18 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 7 yds to the NoArz 47Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Lucky Radley run for 3 yds to the NoArz 40Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-2
99.9%
Lucky Radley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 42Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Lucky Radley for 5 yds to the NoArz 37Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Joel Alesi punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Eddie Horn at the NoArz 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoArz 16Similar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+37
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Alex Holmes for 37 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Alex Holmes for 4 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-7
99.9%
Kyren Poe sacked by Fred Melifonwu for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 13
50
+10
99.9%
Kyren Poe pass complete to Casey Jahn for 10 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Kyren Poe run for no gain to the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
100.0%
Chris Hokokian run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Marcus Stamps run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
99.9%
Marcus Stamps run for 11 yds to the NoArz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:45
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q3 6:36
Casey Jahn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Hawkins KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q2 0:29
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Robert Craighead for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com