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FRES

Fresno State 13 at USC 52

USC
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:07 · Cody Kessler run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+26.8Home team on offense+14.9Score differential+7.7Garbage-time factor+4.8Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:04: Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 5 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:58: Marteze Waller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colin McGuire KICK) — FRES win probability +2.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:53: Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 18 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:53: Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colin McGuire MISSED) — FRES win probability +3.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:56: Javorius Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 7:33FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:18FRES 4th & 6 at USC 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:21FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:56USC 4th & 6 at FRES 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15FRES 4th & 2 at USC 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:58FRES 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:19FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 35, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:07USC 4th & 1 at FRES 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02USC 4th & 6 at FRES 21, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:10USC 4th & 3 at FRES 36, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:56FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:03FRES 4th & 3 at USC 36, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:49USC 4th & 9 at FRES 24, up 39
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:34USC 4th & 3 at FRES 4, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:19FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 14, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:53USC 4th & 1 at FRES 31, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:45USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:17USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:04USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:58FRES Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:53USC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:56USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:21USC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:47USC Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
19 plays · 90 yds · 6:0392% → 91%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
92.1%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+13
92.0%
Javorius Allen run for 13 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
92.0%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
91.8%
JuJu Smith run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+9
91.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
91.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
91.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chad Wheeler) to the USC 42Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
91.5%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+2
91.4%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+17
91.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 17 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
91.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
91.1%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
91.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+18
90.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 18 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
90.9%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.4%
Cody Kessler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:029% → 9%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
91.1%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Aaron Peck for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
91.2%
Burrell, Brian pass complete to Williams, LeKendrick for 4 yards to the FRESNOST35, PENALTY USC personal foul off-setting, PENALTY FRESNOST Offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
91.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 32 yds, downed at the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:0391% → 92%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
91.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
91.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+23
90.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 23 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
91.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 25 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
91.1%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+2
91.1%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
92.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:348% → 8%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
91.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
91.9%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+32
91.8%
Brian Burrell run for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
50
+2
91.5%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
91.4%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
91.6%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh Harper, broken up by Kevon SeymourSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
91.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:5692% → 94%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+53
92.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 53 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.4%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
92.3%
Javorius Allen run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
92.3%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
92.4%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
92.2%
Cody Kessler run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
92.4%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 5 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:266% → 5%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.3%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
94.2%
Brian Burrell run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
94.4%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35 FRESNO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (LeKendrick Williams) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
94.6%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 12 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:1195% → 96%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.9%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-1
94.9%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds to the USC 42 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (JuJu Smith) to the USC 32Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+43
95.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 43 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
95.2%
Cody Kessler run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
95.3%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
95.2%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
95.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Soma VainukuSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
95.4%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
95.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 4 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
95.7%
Andre Heidari 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:495% → 7%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.4%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
95.2%
Brandon Connette run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
95.4%
Marteze Waller run for 19 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.2%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Malique MicenheimerSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
95.3%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+8
95.4%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 8 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+15
95.4%
Brandon Connette run for 15 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
95.1%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+10
95.1%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 10 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.2%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Josh Harper, broken up by Kevon SeymourSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
95.0%
Brandon Connette run for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.3%
Brandon Connette run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colin McGuire KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 0:4794% → 95%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
94.2%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 24Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+34
94.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 34 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.5%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the FrsSt 42 Justin Davis fumbled, recovered by FrsStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:187% → 7%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.9%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Greg WatsonSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+36
93.1%
Brandon Connette pass intercepted Gerald Bowman return for 36 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0695% → 95%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
94.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-6
94.6%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 27 Javorius Allen fumbled, forced by Donavon Lewis, recovered by FrsSt Donavon LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:437% → 7%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
93.2%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
93.2%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
93.0%
Brandon Connette pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:0795% → 98%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
94.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 9 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
94.6%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.6%
Cody Kessler run for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+10
94.5%
Javorius Allen run for 10 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 6
50
0
94.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 6
50
+5
94.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
94.4%
Cody Kessler run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
94.9%
Soma Vainuku run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
95.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Randall TelferSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
95.1%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
97.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 18 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:204% → 4%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Brandon Connette pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.5%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 12 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
96.4%
Brandon Connette pass intercepted Leonard Williams return for 10 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2398% → 97%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.5%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-1
97.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
97.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
97.1%
Andre Heidari 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:524% → 7%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.3%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Brian Burrell run for no gain to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+11
96.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Marteze Waller for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
96.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
96.0%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+16
95.7%
Marteze Waller run for 16 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
95.7%
Brian Burrell run for 9 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+1
96.4%
Burrell, Brian pass incomplete to Harper, Josh, PENALTY USC pass interference (Hawkins, Chris) 1 yards to the USC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.7%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colin McGuire MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:4595% → 99%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
95.4%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+13
95.6%
Cody Kessler run for 13 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
95.8%
Javorius Allen run for 14 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
96.0%
Cody Kessler run for 2 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
96.1%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 5
50
+7
96.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 7 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+32
96.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Victor Blackwell for 32 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
96.4%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
98.9%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19INT
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:472% → 2%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
98.3%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 4 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+11
98.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
98.4%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
50
+3
98.4%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+16
98.4%
Marteze Waller run for 16 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.2%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
98.3%
Waller, Marteze rush for 2 yards to the USC29, PENALTY FRESNOST holding (Micenheimer, Malique) 10 yards to the USC41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+8
98.2%
Brian Burrell pass intercepted Anthony Sarao return for 8 yds to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1899% → 100%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
99.1%
Javorius Allen run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
99.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Damien Mama) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 15
OPP 47
-2
99.1%
Cody Kessler run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 17
OPP 49
+10
99.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 10 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+3
99.3%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+14
99.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 14 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 22 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:171% → 0%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Brian Burrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Brian Burrell pass incomplete to Josh HarperSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
99.7%
Javorius Allen run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.7%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+13
99.8%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Jeff Camilli) to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Soma Vainuku run for 11 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
99.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 9 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.8%
James, Dontel rush for no gain to the FRESNOST31, PENALTY USC face mask (Pelon, Claude) 15 yards to the FRESNOST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 11 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.8%
Brian Burrell pass complete to Josh Harper for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+1
99.8%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Dontel James run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+2
99.8%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24DOWNS
15 plays · 62 yds · 7:26100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
99.8%
James Toland run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.9%
James Toland run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Victor Blackwell for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (-11 Yards) to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Victor Blackwell for 9 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Ajene Harris for 8 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
James Toland run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Max Browne run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
James Toland run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
99.9%
James Toland run for no gain to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-2
99.9%
James Toland run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+13
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Victor Blackwell for 13 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
James Toland run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-4
99.9%
James Toland run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+8
99.9%
James Toland run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 3
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Steven MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
99.9%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+2
99.9%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 12 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-10
99.9%
Brandon Connette sacked by James Toland for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 5 FRESNO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brandon Connette) to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 20
OWN 4
+10
99.9%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 10 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Brandon Connette run for no gain to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+10
100.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 10 yds to the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.9%
James Toland run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Jahleel Pinner run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
100.0%
Jahleel Pinner run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
100.0%
Max Browne run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
100.0%
James Toland run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Max Browne run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Brandon Connette run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
100.0%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Dontel James for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
100.0%
Brandon Connette pass intercepted Michael Hutchings return for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:53
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colin McGuire MISSED)
-3.7
TD · Q2 6:58
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colin McGuire KICK)
-2.8
TD · Q3 8:56
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com