2014 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2014 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:10 · Darragh O'Neill punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:39: Dee Hart run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK), (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:47: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 12 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +12.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:18: Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 13:10: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 16 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +26.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:28: Dee Hart run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 10CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it59.5%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.6%average punt
- Q1 13:09CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.3%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.3%average punt
- Q1 10:31CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it38.5%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q1 8:55COLO 4th & 11 at CSU 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.5%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%average punt
- Q1 5:20CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it36.1%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.5%average punt
- Q2 12:23COLO 4th & 6 at CSU 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snapGo for it65.4%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call65.6%91% to makePunt61.9%−3.7average punt
- Q2 12:20CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it31.1%−1.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%average punt
- Q2 7:03COLO 4th & 6 at CSU 24, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snapGo for it69.4%39% to convertField goalTheir call69.3%−<0.168% to makePunt64.9%−4.5average punt
- Q2 2:31COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 42, up 3Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:38CSU 4th & 1 at COLO 22, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.5%71% to convertField goal20.8%−2.772% to makePunt12.8%−10.7average punt
- Q3 4:11COLO 4th & 3 at CSU 46, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it67.2%52% to convertField goal63.4%−3.823% to makePuntTheir call65.6%−1.6average punt
- Q4 13:10COLO 4th & 17 at COLO 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it34.6%−5.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.6%average punt
- Q4 9:28COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 43, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snapGo for it13.7%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q4 2:34CSU 4th & 4 at COLO 35, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call92.9%−0.445% to makePunt92.5%−0.9average punt
- Q4 2:28COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:28COLO 4th & 1 at CSU 27, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.6%−0.571% to convertField goal5.1%62% to makePunt2.9%−2.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:31COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:39CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.2%97% to makeGo for two37.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:47COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.4%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:18CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.5%97% to makeGo for two33.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:10CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.8%97% to makeGo for two55.4%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 9:28CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.4%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCOLODrive 1PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
59.4%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Spruce, Nelson (ELLIOTT, DeAndr), PENALTY CS DPI (ELLIOTT, DeAndr) 8 yards to the COLO35, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-4
59.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
59.4%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 13:09
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+11
59.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 60 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 11 yds to the Colo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD3 plays · 66 yds · 1:0060% → 62%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
61.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
60.8%
GRAYSON, Garret pass complete to WILLIAMS, Xavie for 19 yards to the COLO45 (Henderson, Greg), PENALTY CS ineligible downfield on pass declined, PENALTY CS pass interference (ROBINSON, Kiel) 15 yards to the CS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+4
61.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 4 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
61.2%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Chidobe AwuzieSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+5
61.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 55 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 5 yds to the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 8:55
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+17
61.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 17 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
62.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 5 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
62.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-7
62.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
61.4%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+15
63.1%
GRAYSON, Garret pass incomplete to HANSLEY, Joe, QB hurry by Greer III, Wood, PENALTY COLO holding declined, PENALTY COLO personal foul (Henderson, Greg) 15 yards to the CS22, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+14
63.6%
Hayden Hunt punt 46 yards to the Colo 32, Nelson Bruce return 13 yards to the Colo 45.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7FG15 plays · 49 yds · 6:4664% → 67%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
64.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
64.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+7
64.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
64.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 5 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
66.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
67.4%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Timothy ColemanSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
68.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 56 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9MISSED FG8 plays · 50 yds · 2:2068% → 70%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
68.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 8 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+43
67.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to D.D. Goodson for 43 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
69.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+4
68.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD10 plays · 76 yds · 4:2430% → 42%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
69.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for no gain to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+14
70.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 14 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
68.6%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles Lovett for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ken Crawley) to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+22
67.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 22 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-12
66.7%
Dee Hart run for 3 yds to the Colo 16 COLORADO ST Penalty, crackback (-15 Yards) to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 22
OPP 31
+15
67.5%
GRAYSON, Garret pass incomplete to HIGGINS, Rashar, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Crawley, Ken) 15 yards to the COLO16, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
57.8%
Dee Hart run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK), (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0862% → 63%
Q2 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
63.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tyler McCulloch for 6 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
63.5%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Goodson, D.D., PENALTY CS offside defense (MICHEL, SteveO) 5 yards to the COLO38, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
64.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
62.7%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
CSUDrive 13FUMBLE6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0038% → 42%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
50
+12
59.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 12 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-4
57.9%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Derek McCartney for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 38 Garrett Grayson fumbled, recovered by Colo Josh Tupou , return for 0 yards COLORADO ST Penalty, HS ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1165% → 80%
CSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 56 yds · 3:2024% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 2:0065% → 65%
CSUDrive 17TD12 plays · 92 yds · 5:1536% → 70%
Q3 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
64.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Treyous Jarrells for 8 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
62.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 14 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+7
58.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 7 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
29.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 16 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Max MorganSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
38.2%
Liufau, Sefo pass complete to Fields, Shay for 14 yards to the COLO39, PENALTY COLO holding (Nembot,Stephane) 10 yards to the COLO15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
36.9%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD7 plays · 60 yds · 2:0969% → 89%
COLODrive 20PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
13.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 18 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
15.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+2
14.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Christian Powell for 2 yds to the Colo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21FG14 plays · 45 yds · 4:5189% → 98%
Q4 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
12.3%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 11 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22DOWNS12 plays · 49 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
1.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
1.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds to the Colo 33 Sefo Liufau fumbled, recovered by Colo N/ASimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+3
1.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for 3 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
1.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Sean Irwin for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Cory James) to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
1.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce Bobo, broken up by Bernard BlakeSimilar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
1.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to D.D. Goodson, broken up by LaRyan KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:10
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 16 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
-26.9
TD · Q4 9:28
Dee Hart run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
-16.5
TD · Q3 6:18
Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
-16