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NICH

Nicholls 16 at Air Force 44

AF
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:45 · Kale Pearson run for no gain to the NicSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+27.6Home team on offense+1.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:02: Tobias Lofton run for 18 yds for a TD, (Francisco Condado BLOCKED), (Francisco Condado BLOCKED) — NICH win probability +2.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:04: Broam Hart run for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +3.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:32: Devin Rushing run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +4.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:59: Shayne Davern run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +6.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:42: Devin Rushing run for 15 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK) — AF win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 4 at AF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:03NICH 4th & 8 at AF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:48AF 4th & 2 at AF 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:45AF 4th & 3 at NICH 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:20NICH 4th & 3 at AF 20, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.8%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:04NICH 4th & 12 at AF 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:35NICH 4th & 1 at NICH 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NICH 4th & 3 at NICH 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:47AF 4th & 1 at NICH 3, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:01NICH 4th & 9 at NICH 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:40AF 4th & 1 at NICH 17, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:40NICH 4th & 15 at NICH 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:18AF 4th & 3 at NICH 20, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:56AF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:04AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:32AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:59AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:42AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:06AF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:37NICH Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
84.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-4
84.1%
Kale Pearson run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+6
84.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 6 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
84.1%
Will Conant punt for 49 yds , Keenan Canty returns for no gain to the NicSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
83.5%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Michael Henry for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.4%
Michael Henry run for 1 yd to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
83.4%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+6
83.4%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Michael Henry for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-5
83.4%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
83.5%
Conner Fryoux punt for 19 yds, downed at the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
82.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
82.9%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-1
83.0%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Will Conant punt for 54 yds, downed at the NicSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 4SF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:4218% → 17%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
82.4%
Kalen Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 7Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 12
OWN 7
-7
82.6%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Weston Steelhammer for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:2383% → 84%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
82.8%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the NicSt 49Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
82.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 1 yd to the NicSt 48Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+40
82.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 40 yds to the NicSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.1%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the NicSt 1Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.1%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the NicSt 1Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-4
83.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Shayne Davern) to the NicSt 5Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.7%
Garrett Brown run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5417% → 20%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.4%
Keenan Canty run for 13 yds to the NicSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
83.1%
Michael Henry run for 3 yds to the NicSt 41Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+21
83.1%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Reggie Wilson for 21 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
82.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
82.9%
Michael Henry run for 6 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+14
82.9%
Kalen Henderson run for 14 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
80.2%
Tobias Lofton run for 18 yds for a TD, (Francisco Condado BLOCKED), (Francisco Condado BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:1181% → 81%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
81.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 22 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
81.7%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 6
50
+3
81.8%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the NicSt 47Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
81.7%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
80.6%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the NicSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 8FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2020% → 23%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.6%
Tobias Lofton run for no gain to the NicSt 47Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
79.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
79.5%
Kalen Henderson run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+11
79.4%
Kalen Henderson run for 11 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
78.3%
Kalen Henderson run for 3 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
78.3%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+4
79.0%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Keenan Canty for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
77.2%
Francisco Condado 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1679% → 84%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
79.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
79.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
79.7%
Colton Huntsman run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
50
+3
79.9%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the NicSt 47Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+11
80.0%
Kale Pearson run for 11 yds to the NicSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
80.0%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
80.3%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+18
79.8%
Devin Rushing run for 18 yds to the NicSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
80.3%
Broam Hart run for 5 yds to the NicSt 6Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
83.5%
Broam Hart run for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Kalen Henderson run for 2 yds to the NicSt 27Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
82.2%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Darryl Watson II for 32 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
80.9%
Michael Henry run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
80.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
81.2%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 7
OPP 38
-5
82.0%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
82.7%
Kalen Henderson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4582% → 88%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.2%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
82.1%
Garrett Brown run for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
82.3%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
82.7%
Kale Pearson run for 15 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
83.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 34 yds to the NicSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
83.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the NicSt 14Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+12
83.5%
Devin Rushing run for 9 yds to the NicSt 5 for a 1ST down NICHOLLS ST Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Toren Joseph) to the NicSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.0%
Devin Rushing run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5113% → 13%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
87.3%
Michael Henry run for 5 yds to the NicSt 26Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
87.1%
Michael Henry run for no gain to the NicSt 26Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+13
87.4%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Stephen LeBouef for 13 yds to the NicSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
87.0%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 3 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
86.9%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Michael Henry for 3 yds to the NicSt 45Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
86.6%
Kalen Henderson run for 3 yds to the NicSt 48Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
87.5%
Conner Fryoux punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0090% → 90%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
89.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
89.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
89.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
90.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Alex Ludowig) to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+2
89.5%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 23
OWN 32
+9
90.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.6%
Michael Henry run for 2 yds to the NicSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
88.5%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
88.8%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Kyron King for 10 yds to the NicSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.1%
Tobias Lofton run for no gain to the NicSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
88.2%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Darryl Watson II for 7 yds to the NicSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
87.6%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Xavier MarcusSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
88.3%
Conner Fryoux punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:2190% → 97%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
89.6%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+28
89.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 28 yds to the NicSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
91.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the NicSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
91.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the NicSt 19Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+1
91.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the NicSt 18Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+6
91.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the NicSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
91.2%
Devin Rushing run for 1 yd to the NicSt 11Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+7
91.2%
Devin Rushing run for 7 yds to the NicSt 4Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
90.9%
Broam Hart run for 1 yd to the NicSt 3Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
90.5%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the NicSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 1:584% → 2%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.4%
Tobias Lofton run for 2 yds to the NicSt 27Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.4%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Darryl Watson IISimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
96.8%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Darryl Watson IISimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
96.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the NicSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
96.5%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 7 yds to the NicSt 49Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-6
96.4%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Weston Steelhammer for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 43Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
98.0%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+4
98.1%
Conner Fryoux punt for 39 yds , Jalen Robinette returns for 4 yds to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:0597% → 100%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
97.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+17
97.4%
Kale Pearson run for 17 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
97.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the NicSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
97.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the NicSt 45Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+20
97.5%
Garrett Brown run for 20 yds to the NicSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
97.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the NicSt 22Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
97.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the NicSt 21Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+6
97.6%
Garrett Brown run for 6 yds to the NicSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Devin Rushing run for 15 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · -11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Michael Henry run for 3 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 8 yds to the NicSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
99.8%
Kalen Henderson run for a loss of 7 yards to the NicSt 29Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Michael Henry, broken up by Kristov GeorgeSimilar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-5
99.8%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 24Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 22
OWN 24
-10
99.8%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Nick Fitzgerald for a loss of 10 yards to the NicSt 14Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 32
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Conner Fryoux punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the NicSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
Paco Salano run for 5 yds to the NicSt 39Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+13
99.8%
Nate Romine run for 23 yds to the NicSt 16 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NicSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.8%
Broam Hart run for 5 yds to the NicSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
99.8%
Scott Hester run for 3 yds to the NicSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
99.8%
Paco Salano run for 1 yd to the NicSt 17Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+35
99.8%
Drew Oehrle 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.9%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Dillon Beschel for a loss of 5 yards to the NicSt 15Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Darryl Watson IISimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Conner Fryoux punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Scott Hester run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+32
99.9%
Jon Lee run for 32 yds to the NicSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.9%
Scott Hester run for 7 yds to the NicSt 20Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-8
99.9%
Jon Lee run for a loss of 8 yards to the NicSt 28Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+8
99.9%
Scott Hester run for 8 yds to the NicSt 20Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Paco Salano run for 3 yds to the NicSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.9%
Scott Hester run for 6 yds to the NicSt 11Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Paco Salano run for 11 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:290% → 0%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Tobias Lofton run for no gain to the NicSt 25Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
100.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the NicSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Tobias Lofton for 11 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
100.0%
Beaux Hebert sacked by Donnie Wharton for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 45Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+17
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Darryl Watson II for 17 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Tobias Lofton for 7 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-2
99.9%
Beaux Hebert run for 8 yds to the AFA 23 NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+11
99.9%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Tobias Lofton for 11 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 2 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+8
99.9%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Nick Scelfo for 8 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
Beaux Hebert run for 2 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Darryl Watson II for 10 yds for a TD, (Francisco Condado KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
Aaron Clinton-Earl run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 5
50
+4
100.0%
Aaron Clinton-Earl run for 4 yds to the NicSt 46Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
100.0%
Aaron Clinton-Earl run for 6 yds to the NicSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NicSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:59
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 5:32
Devin Rushing run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 10:04
Broam Hart run for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com