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TOL

Toledo 52 at Eastern Michigan 16

EMU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-3.2EMU 6.0%Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD,(Jeremiah Detmer KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 6 · Q2 5:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:53 · Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior−31.9Home team on offense−23.1Score differential−8.9Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 89 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:41: Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder PAT MISSED) — EMU win probability +2.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:53: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +3.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:18: Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 59 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:29: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 11 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:21EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:18EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:16TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:57EMU 4th & 19 at TOL 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:32TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 41, up 15
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:40EMU 4th & 16 at EMU 22, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:53TOL 4th & 1 at EMU 1, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:20EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 31, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:32TOL 4th & 4 at EMU 4, up 33
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 40, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:10TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 45, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:06EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 29, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:28TOL 4th & 15 at EMU 40, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:28EMU 4th & 12 at EMU 38, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:21TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:56TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:28TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:41EMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:53TOL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:26TOL Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:18TOL Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:45EMU Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:29TOL Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.7%
Ryan Brumfield run for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
8.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 1 yd to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
8.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass intercepted Chris Dukes return for 2 yds to the EMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:3191% → 91%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
9.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the EMich 41Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+41
9.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 41 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
9.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
9.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Dustin Creel for 1 yd to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
9.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for no gain to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+16
9.1%
Owen Dubiel punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 32 , Dwight Macon returns for 16 yds to the EMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:2691% → 91%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
9.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
9.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 22 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Darius JacksonSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.2%
Darius Jackson run for 5 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
9.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
9.2%
Owen Dubiel punt for 42 yds, downed at the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -23 yds · 0:2791% → 91%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
9.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
9.3%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-5
9.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-13
9.4%
Logan Woodside sacked by Jeremiah Harris and Pat O'Connor for a loss of 13 yards to the Toled 5 Logan Woodside fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 33
OWN 5
0
9.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds , Dustin Creel returns for no gain to the EMich 5 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the EMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
9.6%
Bronson Hill run for 5 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-4
9.6%
Bronson Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 44Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-5
9.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Keenen Gibbs and Ray Bush for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 14
OWN 39
-6
9.4%
Owen Dubiel punt for 46 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
9.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-5
9.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 16 TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Corey Jones) to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+4
9.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
9.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dustin Creel at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
50
0
10.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan BrumfieldSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
50
0
10.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 10
50
+15
10.0%
BELL, Reginald pass incomplete to STRANGE, Kris, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (DUKES,Christian) 15 yards to the TOLEDO35, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
10.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
10.2%
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-10
10.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 44 Reginald Bell Jr. fumbled, recovered by EMich Reginald Bell Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 19
OPP 44
0
9.9%
Owen Dubiel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:4290% → 93%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
9.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+89
7.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 89 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:408% → 11%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
7.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 11 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
7.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 6 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
8.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to David GibsonSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+6
8.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 6 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+45
8.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 45 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
8.2%
Bronson Hill run for 2 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
10.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
9.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+6
9.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
9.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for no gain to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
9.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 10 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
9.5%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to WILCHER, Kishon, PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TOLEDO29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-4
9.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 19
OWN 25
0
9.6%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+16
9.7%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
9.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 31 yds, downed at the EMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
10.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-7
10.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 22Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 16
OWN 22
0
9.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+50
9.9%
Owen Dubiel punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 8 , Corey Jones returns for 50 yds to the EMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1090% → 94%
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
9.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the EMich 3Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
9.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the EMich 1Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.7%
Zac Rosenbauer run for no gain to the EMich 1Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
7.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Tyreese RussellSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
7.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to David Gibson, broken up by Connery SwiftSimilar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
7.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass intercepted Chaz Whittaker return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:5494% → 95%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
50
+12
5.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
5.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
5.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 28 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
2.7%
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
2.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+2
2.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+3
2.6%
Owen Dubiel punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 30 , Corey Jones returns for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3394% → 98%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
6.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
6.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
5.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
6.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
2.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 59 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:091% → 2%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
1.2%
Bronson Hill run for 7 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+38
1.0%
Bronson Hill run for 38 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
1.3%
BELL, Reginald pass incomplete to STRANGE, Kris, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (SWIFT, Connery) 15 yards to the TOLEDO25, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Bronson HillSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+42
1.6%
Dylan Mulder 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:2898% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
2.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Storm Norton) to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
2.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 20 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
1.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
1.9%
Dwight Macon run for 5 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
1.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+7
1.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
1.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the EMich 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
1.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+14
1.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 14 yds to the EMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the EMich 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
1.8%
Dwight Macon run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 4Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
1.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Dwight MaconSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
1.5%
Jeremiah Detmer 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:401% → 2%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
1.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for 2 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
1.1%
Darius Jackson run for 7 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
1.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for 5 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
1.2%
Darius Jackson run for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
1.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+9
1.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Darius Jackson for 9 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
1.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Ryan Brumfield for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:1098% → 100%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+34
1.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 34 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
1.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+11
1.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
1.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
1.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
1.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Zach YouseySimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
1.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
1.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the EMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 11 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:210% → 0%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to David GibsonSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
0.3%
Darius Jackson run for 8 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+9
0.3%
Ryan Brumfield run for 9 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-2
0.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
0.3%
Owen Dubiel punt for 38 yds, downed at the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
0.4%
Ricky Pringle run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
0.4%
Kishon Wilcher run for 1 yd to the Toled 27 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, noncontact foul (Nathan Adams) to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+5
0.4%
Ricky Pringle run for 5 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.3%
Ricky Pringle run for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
0.3%
Ricky Pringle run for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
0.3%
Ricky Pringle run for 2 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
0.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dustin Creel at the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
0.2%
Darius Jackson run for 9 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
0.2%
Bronson Hill run for 2 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
0.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Cole Gardner for 3 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Austin StoneSimilar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Cole GardnerSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Owen Dubiel punt for 30 yds, downed at the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26MISSED FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
0.2%
Chris Dukes run for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+11
0.2%
Ricky Pringle run for 11 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
0.2%
Chris Dukes pass complete to Zach Rogers for 11 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
0.2%
Chris Dukes pass complete to Zach Rogers for 7 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
0.2%
Ricky Pringle run for 1 yd to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-13
0.2%
Chris Dukes sacked by Jeremiah Harris and Travis Linser for a loss of 13 yards to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 15
OPP 40
+57
0.1%
Jeremiah Detmer 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan BrumfieldSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
0.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+2
0.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for 2 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Owen Dubiel punt for 51 yds, downed at the Toled 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 11
OWN 10
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:18
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 59 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-4
TD · Q2 5:53
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q1 1:28
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 89 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com