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BUF

Buffalo 41 at Massachusetts 21

MASS
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:17 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:10: Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 28 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +12.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:12: Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 31 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +8.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 22 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +15.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:50: Marken Michel run for 50 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +12.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:43: Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 4 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +13.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:14MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:14BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:57MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:50BUF 4th & 7 at MASS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:09BUF 4th & 4 at MASS 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:09MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:54MASS 4th & 5 at BUF 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:10MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:50BUF 4th & 4 at MASS 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−1.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:43MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 28, down 20
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:50MASS 4th & 7 at BUF 7, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:50BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 36, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:35MASS 4th & 22 at MASS 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 3:10BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:12BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:30BUF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:50MASS Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:43BUF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:54BUF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:50MASS Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:19BUF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:17MASS Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
47.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+1
47.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 1 yd to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
47.7%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
47.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
48.1%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 5 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
48.2%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for no gain to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
48.1%
Austin Whipple pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
48.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
48.3%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+4
48.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
48.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
48.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4649% → 49%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
49.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
49.1%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
48.8%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
49.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:4151% → 50%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
48.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
48.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
48.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
48.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 21 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
48.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
48.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
48.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 8 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
48.3%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+6
48.5%
Joe Licata run for 6 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
48.4%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+13
48.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 13 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
48.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
48.2%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+2
48.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
49.6%
Patrick Clarke 33 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
50.5%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 12 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
50.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-10
51.5%
Austin Whipple sacked by Lee Skinner for a loss of 10 yards to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+5
49.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
49.8%
Brian McDonald punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3850% → 49%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
50.2%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
50.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
50.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
50.8%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+10
50.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 10 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
51.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
52.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 1 yd to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
51.5%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+5
52.3%
Marken Michel run for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
52.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
52.2%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
51.2%
Brian McDonald punt for 44 yds, downed at the Buff 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
18 plays · 99 yds · 8:0350% → 65%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
50.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+4
50.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+4
51.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
50.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 3 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-6
50.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 4 yds to the Buff 20 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Jacob Martinez) to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+15
50.4%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to EILAND, Jamarl, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Colton, J.) 15 yards to the UB25, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
48.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
49.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
48.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
48.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 7 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
48.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
48.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
47.7%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+6
48.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
47.4%
Joe Licata run for 3 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+28
35.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 28 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
39.1%
Jalen Williams run for 10 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.6%
Austin Whipple run for no gain to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
39.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 3 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
39.4%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
38.6%
Brian McDonald punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 0:5764% → 76%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
36.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+26
37.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 26 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
33.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 7 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+9
33.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
32.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Kassan Messiah and Trey Seals for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+31
24.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 31 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
31.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
30.6%
Todd Stafford pass incomplete to Shakur NesmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+18
30.6%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Brandon Howard for 18 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
31.3%
Austin Whipple sacked by Nick Gilbo for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
30.7%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Brandon HowardSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
29.9%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+12
29.7%
Brian McDonald punt for 49 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 12 yds to the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:1073% → 90%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
27.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
26.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
26.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 8 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+38
25.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 38 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
25.8%
TAYLOR, Anthone rush for 3 yards to the UMASS10 (Santos-Knox, J.), PENALTY UB holding (KLING, John) 10 yards to the UMASS23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+1
25.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the UMass 22Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 19
OPP 22
+22
10.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 22 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:4016% → 29%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
15.6%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Marken Michel for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
50
0
16.6%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
50
+50
29.0%
Marken Michel run for 50 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:0778% → 92%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
22.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
21.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
21.9%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+28
24.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 28 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
21.6%
JOHNSON, Jordan rush for loss of 5 yards to the UMASS10 (Santos-Knox, J.), PENALTY UB face mask (MANOSALVAS, B.) 15 yards to the UMASS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+16
21.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 16 yds to the UMass 4Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
21.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
7.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 4 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
10.6%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
10.6%
Marken Michel run for 6 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
10.9%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Brandon Howard, broken up by Okezie AlozieSimilar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+8
10.6%
Brian McDonald punt for 52 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 8 yds to the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:4193% → 98%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
6.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
6.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+7
6.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 7 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
6.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+36
6.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 36 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
5.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+6
5.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD
21 plays · 70 yds · 6:044% → 3%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
4.4%
Austin Whipple run for 5 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
4.3%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 4 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
4.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
4.7%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Lorenzo Woodley for 7 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-11
4.7%
Austin Whipple run for 4 yds to the UMASS 48 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Rodney Mills) to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
4.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 9 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
4.5%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Max PerisseSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
4.5%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Rodney Mills for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
4.8%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+10
4.6%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 10 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
5.0%
Austin Whipple sacked by Okezie Alozie and Lee Skinner for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+5
1.0%
Austin Whipple run for 5 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+23
1.1%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 23 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
1.2%
Whipple, A. pass incomplete to Williams, J., PENALTY UB pass interference (ROSS, Boise) 15 yards to the UB2, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
1.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.5%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q4 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.4%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
3.0%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
2.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
2.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
2.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
2.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
2.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for no gain to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
2.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
2.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 12 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
2.1%
Marken Michel run for 3 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
2.1%
Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Marken Michel, broken up by Kristjan SokoliSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
2.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 8 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
2.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Shakur Nesmith) to the UMass 38Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+21
2.1%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Alex Kenney for 16 yds to the UMASS 46 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-13
2.4%
Austin Whipple sacked by Adam Redden and Brandon Crawford for a loss of 13 yards to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 23
OWN 46
-5
2.1%
Austin Whipple sacked by Lee Skinner and Brandon Crawford for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 28
OWN 41
+6
2.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 22
OWN 47
0
2.1%
Brian McDonald punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:5399% → 100%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
1.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+76
0.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 76 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:020% → 1%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
0.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 24 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.1%
Lorenzo Woodley run for no gain to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.1%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+27
0.1%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Rodney Mills for 27 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
1.0%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 24 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
0.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:30
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 22 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q3 6:43
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 4 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 9:50
Marken Michel run for 50 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com