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BGSU

Bowling Green 20 at Toledo 27

TOL
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 19, 2014 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:01 · Joe Davidson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Toled 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+10.4Home team on offense+2.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score differential+0.4Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:19: Dwight Macon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +5.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:32: Ronnie Moore run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:36: Kareem Hunt 91 Yd Run (Jeremiah Detmer Kick) — TOL win probability +15.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:17: Cody Callaway pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +26.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:45: Dwight Macon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +21.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 9:46TOL 4th & 10 at BGSU 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:56BGSU 4th & 5 at TOL 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:15TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:10BGSU 4th & 3 at TOL 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:30BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:51TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:01BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:03TOL 4th & 3 at BGSU 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:32BGSU 4th & 10 at TOL 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:38TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:46BGSU 4th & 23 at BGSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−5.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:50BGSU 4th & 18 at TOL 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:31BGSU 4th & 15 at BGSU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:05BGSU 4th & 8 at TOL 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−8.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:53TOL 4th & 3 at BGSU 12, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−9.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:47BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:15TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−4.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:06BGSU 4th & 11 at TOL 30, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−3.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:29TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:42BGSU 4th & 18 at BGSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:57TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:19TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:32BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:36TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:17BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:45TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 43 yds · 5:0569% → 68%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
68.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
68.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-1
68.8%
Dwight Macon run for 9 yds to the Toled 43 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Olack) to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
68.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 6 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
68.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nick Johnson) to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
68.9%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+4
68.7%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+13
68.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 13 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
68.9%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+1
68.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
68.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kareem Hunt, broken up by Gus SchwietermanSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 10
OPP 31
0
68.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3132% → 32%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
67.9%
Andre Givens run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
67.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
67.6%
Andre Givens run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Andre Givens run for no gain to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
67.5%
Andre Givens run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
67.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+8
67.9%
Joe Davidson punt for 35 yds , Corey Jones returns for 8 yds to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:4968% → 71%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
67.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
67.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 9 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
68.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+12
68.3%
Corey Jones run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
68.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+8
68.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
68.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 20 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
68.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.5%
Dwight Macon run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
68.5%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 1:3331% → 33%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
69.3%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 14 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
69.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 16 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger Lewis, broken up by Chris DukesSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
68.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+31
68.9%
Ronnie Moore run for 31 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
67.4%
Andre Givens run for 2 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.3%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger Lewis, broken up by Ray BushSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
67.1%
Tyler Tate 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2068% → 67%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
67.8%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+1
67.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
66.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Nick JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
66.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 16 yds, downed at the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0034% → 33%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
66.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
66.3%
Andre Givens run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+7
66.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
67.4%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:3069% → 74%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+44
68.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 44 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
69.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
69.4%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+7
68.9%
Corey Jones run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.0%
Dwight Macon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4926% → 25%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
73.9%
Andre Givens run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
74.0%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
74.6%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
74.9%
Joe Davidson punt for 39 yds, downed at the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:1774% → 74%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.1%
Kishon Wilcher run for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+13
74.5%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
74.7%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+29
74.1%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Nick Johnson return for 41 yds to the Toled 5 TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Logan Woodside) to the Toled 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1328% → 36%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
72.1%
Ronnie Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
64.5%
Ronnie Moore run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:1968% → 67%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
67.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
68.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
69.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-5
67.4%
Logan Woodside sacked by Kendall Montgomery for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
66.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds, downed at the BwGrn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:3832% → 30%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
67.9%
Ronnie Moore run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+6
67.9%
Ronnie Moore run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.6%
Ronnie Moore run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
67.3%
Andre Givens run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-13
68.0%
Knapke, James pass complete to Lewis, Roger for 4 yards to the BOWLGREEN30, PENALTY BOWLGREEN pass interference (Givens, Andre) 13 yards to the BOWLGREEN13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+9
68.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 9 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
69.6%
Joe Davidson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5270% → 69%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
69.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
69.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-1
69.4%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
68.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds, downed at the BwGrn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3433% → 33%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
67.4%
Andre Givens run for no gain to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-1
67.5%
Andre Givens run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:1633% → 33%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
66.9%
Ronnie Moore run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
66.4%
James Knapke run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-5
67.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Bennett) to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+13
68.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 13 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
64.7%
Andre Givens run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
64.3%
Ronnie Moore run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 1
50
+2
63.9%
Ronnie Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.5%
Andre Givens run for no gain to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
63.8%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
65.2%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
67.3%
Joe Davidson punt for 36 yds, downed at the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4268% → 66%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
67.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+2
68.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
67.8%
Dwight Macon run for no gain to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
68.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Storm Norton) to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
68.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kareem Hunt, broken up by Taylor RoysterSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+8
66.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 8 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
66.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 35 yds, downed at the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3836% → 32%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
64.5%
Andre Givens run for 14 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
62.8%
Andre Givens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-8
64.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Huettel) to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 20
OWN 44
0
65.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 20
OWN 44
-3
66.5%
James Knapke sacked by Keenen Gibbs for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 23
OWN 41
0
68.2%
Joe Davidson punt for 43 yds, downed at the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3868% → 69%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
68.3%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Corey Jones for 10 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
68.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.8%
Dwight Macon pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
69.3%
Dwight Macon sacked by Brian Sutton for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 29 Dwight Macon fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Gus Schwieterman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0339% → 33%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
60.8%
Ronnie Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-10
60.6%
Ronnie Moore run for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 18
OPP 37
0
65.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Illegal Touching (Roger Lewis) to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 18
OPP 37
0
67.0%
Joe Davidson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
82.5%
Kareem Hunt 91 Yd Run (Jeremiah Detmer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0218% → 16%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
82.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (Tim McAuliffe) to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 22
OWN 12
0
82.3%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 22
OWN 12
+7
82.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Andre Givens for 7 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 15
OWN 19
0
83.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Andre GivensSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
84.2%
Joe Davidson punt for 41 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:2085% → 83%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
84.5%
Swanson, Terry rush for 4 yards to the TOLEDO44, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (Nelson, Chase) 10 yards to the TOLEDO30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
83.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+40
83.2%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Clint Stephens return for 40 yds to the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3722% → 25%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
78.4%
Andre Givens run for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
78.4%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
79.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
75.1%
Tyler Tate 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4484% → 84%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
83.6%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+7
85.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-1
84.7%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
84.2%
Jeremiah Detmer 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Gabe MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:3122% → 51%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
78.5%
Cody Callaway run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
78.9%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+32
82.0%
Cody Callaway pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 32 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
78.0%
Cody Callaway pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 30 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
75.0%
Andre Givens run for 6 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
49.0%
Cody Callaway pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:2764% → 88%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
64.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
65.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by D.J. LynchSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+3
64.4%
Corey Jones run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
65.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+17
64.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
65.8%
Dwight Macon run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.8%
Dwight Macon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4821% → 19%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
79.1%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
79.7%
Andre Givens run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
79.2%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
80.9%
Joe Davidson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2285% → 86%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
84.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+4
84.6%
Dwight Macon run for 4 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+11
85.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
86.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
87.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-7
87.3%
Logan Woodside sacked by Bryan Baird for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
86.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:0517% → 13%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
83.1%
Callaway, Cody pass incomplete to Dieter, Gehrig, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (Hester, Treyvon) 15 yards to the BOWLGREEN48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
81.0%
Andre Givens run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+6
80.4%
Cody Callaway pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 6 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
79.9%
Andre Givens run for 9 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
77.5%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
78.6%
Ronnie Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
77.2%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
78.3%
Cody Callaway sacked by Ray Bush for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+4
83.8%
Cody Callaway run for 4 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 11
OPP 30
-7
87.1%
Cody Callaway sacked by Junior Sylvestre for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:3096% → 97%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
96.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
96.6%
Wilcher, Kishon rush for 15 yards to the BOWLGREEN46, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (Hunt, Kareem) 2 yards to the TOLEDO37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.1%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:417% → 6%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+31
93.0%
Cody Callaway pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 31 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.9%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-8
92.4%
Cody Callaway sacked by Tré James for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
93.4%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
94.0%
Cody Callaway pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:17
Cody Callaway pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-26
TD · Q4 10:45
Dwight Macon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
+21.9
TD · Q3 4:36
Kareem Hunt 91 Yd Run (Jeremiah Detmer Kick)
+15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com