2014 · Week 13 · Nov 18, 2014 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:31 · Brian McDonald punt for 40 yds , Imani Davis returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 21 Imani Davis fumbled, recovered by Akron Imani Davis
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 8:25: Robert Stein 24 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +6.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:25: Kyle Pohl pass complete to Conor Hundley for 12 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +12.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:20: Austin Whipple pass incomplete to Shadrach Abrokwah — MASS win probability +3.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:06: Austin Whipple pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent PAT MISSED) — MASS win probability +11.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:54: Conor Hundley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +8.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:52AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 48, tiedClose callPunted · 69.1% before the snapGo for it69.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:33MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it31.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.4%average punt
- Q1 6:15AKR 4th & 3 at MASS 8, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snapGo for it68.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call68.1%−0.190% to makePunt66.9%−1.4average punt
- Q1 4:11MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q1 0:35MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it27.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.5%average punt
- Q2 14:12AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snapGo for it71.0%−1.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%average punt
- Q2 12:31MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it26.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q2 8:38AKR 4th & 9 at MASS 9, up 10Close callWent for it · 74.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.0%−0.725% to convertField goal73.8%89% to makePunt68.1%−5.7average punt
- Q2 8:25AKR 4th & 1 at MASS 7, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snapGo for it74.2%70% to convertField goalTheir call72.0%−2.291% to makePunt66.5%−7.8average punt
- Q3 8:47AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 37, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.5%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.4%average punt
- Q3 0:00MASS 4th & 13 at AKR 13, down 21Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.717% to convertField goal2.1%85% to makePunt-0.5%−2.6average punt
- Q4 11:20AKR 4th & 1 at MASS 14, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%71% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%−0.484% to makePunt97.0%−1.5average punt
- Q4 6:49MASS 4th & 5 at AKR 12, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.138% to convertField goal0.9%86% to makePunt0.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:00AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 32, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q4 0:48MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 49, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:37AKR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.7%97% to makeGo for two72.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:25AKR Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:06MASS Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call15.1%97% to makeGo for two15.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:54AKR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5870% → 69%
MASSDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3631% → 31%
AKRDrive 3FG11 plays · 43 yds · 3:3969% → 69%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
69.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 3 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
69.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
69.2%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 11 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
69.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Jawon Chisholm for 13 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2831% → 30%
AKRDrive 5TD5 plays · 49 yds · 1:0870% → 73%
MASSDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2728% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2373% → 73%
MASSDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3527% → 25%
Q2 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+3
74.0%
Austin Whipple run for 3 yds to the UMass 37 Austin Whipple fumbled, recovered by UMass Elijah WilkinsonSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 6
OWN 37
-2
74.8%
Brian McDonald punt for 40 yds , Imani Davis returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 21 Imani Davis fumbled, recovered by Akron Imani DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9FG14 plays · 72 yds · 3:3574% → 80%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
74.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 3 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
73.5%
Pohl, Kyle pass incomplete, PENALTY UMASS offside 5 yards to the AKRON24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+16
74.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 16 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.5%
Conor Hundley run for 1 yd to the Akron 41 Conor Hundley fumbled, forced by Jovan Santos-Knox, recovered by Akron Dylan BrumbaughSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+25
75.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 10 yds to the AKRON 49 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+18
76.2%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 18 yds to the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:5421% → 20%
AKRDrive 11FUMBLE7 plays · 58 yds · 2:3781% → 81%
Q2 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+12
80.2%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 12 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
80.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 9 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.8%
Jawon Chisholm run for no gain to the UMass 6 Jawon Chisholm fumbled, recovered by UMass Randall JetteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12INT8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5919% → 20%
Q2 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
81.0%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Marken Michel for 7 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
80.8%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Marken Michel for 6 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+44
79.7%
Austin Whipple pass intercepted Devonte Morgan return for 44 yds to the UMass 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD3 plays · 29 yds · 0:3583% → 95%
MASSDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:209% → 8%
AKRDrive 16FUMBLE6 plays · 51 yds · 1:4295% → 95%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
95.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 9 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
95.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 3 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
95.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 22 yds Andrew Pratt fumbled, recovered by UMass Stanley AndreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17TD2 plays · 73 yds · 0:247% → 18%
AKRDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 3:1386% → 86%
Q3 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+10
85.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Keith Sconiers for 10 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 10 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
86.4%
Zach Paul punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
AKRDrive 20FUMBLE9 plays · 0 yds · 4:2088% → 90%
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
89.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 3 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 11
OPP 22
-6
89.7%
Kyle Pohl sacked by Trey Seals and Jovan Santos-Knox for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+15
87.6%
Pohl, Kyle pass incomplete to Williams, Tyler, PENALTY UMASS pass interference 15 yards to the UMASS13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AKRON. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21TD3 plays · 13 yds · 1:0690% → 98%
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
89.6%
Pohl, Kyle pass complete to Williams, Tyler for 10 yards to the UMASS3, PENALTY AKRON personal foul 5 yards to the UMASS18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22INT10 plays · 57 yds · 2:003% → 2%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
96.9%
Bernard Davis pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
96.9%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 13 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
96.9%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 1 yd to the Akron 45Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+22
97.1%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 22 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
96.6%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 16 yds to the Akron 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
97.5%
Austin Whipple sacked by Nordly Capi for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 13Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+43
97.8%
Austin Whipple pass intercepted Johnny Robinson return for 43 yds to the Akron 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23FG9 plays · 43 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Keith Sconiers for 2 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+11
98.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Keith Sconiers for 11 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
99.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Encroachment (5 Yards) to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+7
99.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 7 yds to the UMass 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24DOWNS12 plays · 37 yds · 4:112% → 1%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
98.5%
Austin Whipple pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the Akron 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:421% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:25
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Conor Hundley for 12 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+12
TD · Q3 12:06
Austin Whipple pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent PAT MISSED)
-11.2
TD · Q3 2:54
Conor Hundley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+8.1