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AKR

Akron 24 at Buffalo 55

BUF
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 11, 2014 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.6BUF 63.0%Robert Stein 33 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 21 · Q2 5:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:14 · Robert Stein 33 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense+6.5Score differential+2.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Pregame prior−4.9Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:30: Tony Daniel 21 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick) — BUF win probability +8.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Jacob Martinez 17 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke PAT failed) — BUF win probability +7.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:33: Cody Grice 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick) — AKR win probability +10.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:42: Ron Willoughby 42 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick) — BUF win probability +17.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:20: Devin Campbell 24 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick) — BUF win probability +9.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:33AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:59BUF 4th & 3 at AKR 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40AKR 4th & 16 at AKR 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:51AKR 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:14AKR 4th & 9 at BUF 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:07BUF 4th & 7 at AKR 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:13AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:33AKR 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−14.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:38AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:08AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:53BUF 4th & 1 at AKR 44, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:27AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 40, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:59BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:02BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:30BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:33AKR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:42BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:20BUF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:37BUF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:41AKR Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:43BUF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1INT TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:1842% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+37
41.7%
Joe Licata pass intercepted for a TD DeAndre Scott return for 37 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:0342% → 42%
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
41.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+7
41.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
41.7%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+2
41.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
41.4%
Licata, Joe pass incomplete to Weiser, Matt, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (March, Justin) 15 yards to the BUFFALO45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
41.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
41.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
41.9%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 45 Anthone Taylor fumbled, forced by Cody Grice, recovered by Akron Cody GriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4559% → 59%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.1%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Andrew Pratt, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
41.0%
Jawon Chisholm run for no gain to the Akron 45Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
41.2%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to L.T. SmithSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
41.4%
Zach Paul punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:0041% → 45%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
41.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 8 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
41.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
41.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
41.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
41.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
41.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
41.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+15
41.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 15 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
41.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
42.3%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
41.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+33
44.9%
Matt Weiser 33 Yd pass from Jordan Johnson (Patrick Clarke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4757% → 55%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
43.5%
Fransohn Bickley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
44.2%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Fransohn BickleySimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-1
44.7%
Jawon Chisholm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 41Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 16
OWN 41
+3
45.3%
Zach Paul punt for 42 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for 3 yds to the Buff 20 Jacob Martinez fumbled, recovered by Buff Boise RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3345% → 54%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
44.9%
Joe Licata run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+57
45.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 57 yds to the BUFFALO 17 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kris Givens) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
47.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Akron 10Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+6
47.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Akron 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
48.0%
Tony Daniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 6Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.2%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Akron 6Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
53.5%
Devin Campbell 6 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5549% → 48%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
51.4%
Jawon Chisholm run for 5 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
50.7%
Jawon Chisholm run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 2
50
0
50.8%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Kristjan SokoliSimilar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 2
50
0
51.7%
Zach Paul punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:5154% → 66%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
54.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
54.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
54.4%
Tony Daniel run for 5 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
55.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+20
55.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 20 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
56.9%
Joe Licata run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 26Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+5
57.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+21
65.5%
Tony Daniel 21 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:0736% → 37%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
64.2%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Keith Sconiers for 10 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
64.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 8 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+22
63.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 22 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
62.5%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (Dylan Brumbaugh) to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+5
65.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
63.4%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Conor HundleySimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+18
65.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 18 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
63.8%
Conor Hundley run for 4 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
64.0%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Andrew PrattSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-3
65.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
63.0%
Robert Stein 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3866% → 66%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
65.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 8 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+9
66.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
67.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 43Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
67.0%
Tony Daniel pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+4
66.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
65.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5033% → 28%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.3%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Kendall RobersonSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
68.2%
Conor Hundley run for no gain to the Akron 20Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
71.4%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Jake StockmanSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Zach Paul punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:5471% → 81%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
71.2%
Licata, Joe pass incomplete to Hughes, Devon, PENALTY AKRON offside (Pittman, Se'Von) 5 yards to the BUFFALO45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 5
OWN 45
0
71.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone Taylor, broken up by Cody GriceSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
71.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
71.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 15 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
72.1%
Taylor, Anthone rush for 20 yards to the AKRON20, PENALTY BUFFALO holding (Blodgett, Robert) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 20
50
0
71.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 20
50
+15
72.0%
Licata, Joe pass incomplete to Robinson, Malcolm, PENALTY AKRON roughing passer (Brown, Jatavis) 15 yards to the AKRON35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
73.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 18 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
81.1%
Jacob Martinez 17 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
77.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:1122% → 31%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 9 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
77.1%
Jawon Chisholm run for 7 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.0%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Jawon ChisholmSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
78.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
50
+2
77.4%
Cody Grice run for 2 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
77.6%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Fransohn BickleySimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
79.7%
Jawon Chisholm run for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
79.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 5 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
79.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 4 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+7
76.6%
Kyle Pohl run for 7 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
76.9%
Jawon Chisholm run for 7 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+9
77.3%
Jawon Chisholm run for 9 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
77.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 6 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
77.9%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.3%
Jawon Chisholm run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.8%
Cody Grice 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:3673% → 90%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
72.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
50
+2
73.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
74.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-10
73.6%
Taylor, Anthone rush for 3 yards to the AKRON39, PENALTY BUFFALO holding (Schreck, Mason) 10 yards to the BUFFALO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-5
72.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+15
71.9%
AKRON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nordly Capi) to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
89.7%
Ron Willoughby 42 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
86.8%
Kyle Pohl run for 3 yds to the Akron 24 Kyle Pohl fumbled, forced by Tedroy Lynch, recovered by Buff Brandon CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
96.1%
Devin Campbell 24 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:516% → 5%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 9 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Jawon Chisholm run for no gain to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.8%
Cody Grice run for no gain to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.9%
Jawon Chisholm run for 2 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.0%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Andrew Pratt, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
95.4%
Kyle Pohl run for no gain to the Akron 41Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
95.5%
Zach Paul punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 5:0798% → 100%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
97.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+9
97.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+7
98.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+11
98.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
98.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 8 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
98.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the Akron 21 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malcolm Robinson) to the Akron 31Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+6
98.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
98.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Akron 16 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin March) to the Akron 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
98.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Anthone Taylor 6 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:280% → 2%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Josh Smith for 8 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
99.7%
Conor Hundley run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+9
99.7%
Kyle Pohl run for 9 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
99.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 13 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
99.8%
Kyle Pohl run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Keith Sconiers, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+16
99.8%
Kyle Pohl run for 16 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
Jawon Chisholm 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1599% → 100%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
99.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
99.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.4%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+8
99.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
99.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · -19 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Fransohn Bickley, broken up by Kyril ThreatsSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to L.T. SmithSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.2%
Conor Hundley run for 1 yd to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 9
OWN 45
-5
99.2%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (Josh Smith) to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 14
OWN 40
-15
99.3%
Kyle Pohl sacked by Adam Redden for a loss of 15 yards to the Akron 25 Kyle Pohl fumbled, forced by Adam Redden, recovered by Buff Adam Redden , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Akron 16Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Akron 16Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
99.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
99.8%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 16Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+16
100.0%
Jordan Johnson 16 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.9%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Wade Edwards for 9 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+7
99.9%
D.J. Jones run for 7 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
100.0%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Josh Smith for 7 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Josh Smith for 4 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
100.0%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Nick Bice for 13 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:42
Ron Willoughby 42 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)
+17.8
TD · Q3 9:33
Cody Grice 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)
-10.4
TD · Q3 6:20
Devin Campbell 24 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com