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BUF

Buffalo 14 at Ohio 37

OHIO
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 5, 2014 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:35 · Tyler Grassman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense+2.0Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.2Blowout margin+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:08: A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:12: A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +12.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 12:25: Josiah Yazdani 28 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +7.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:57: Derrius Vick run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:54: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 12 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +4.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 11:11OHIO 4th & 4 at BUF 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:45BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35BUF 4th & 2 at OHIO 40, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−1.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:02OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:58BUF 4th & 2 at OHIO 19, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%−0.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:26BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:56OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 27, up 17
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:56BUF 4th & 4 at OHIO 42, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−2.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:01OHIO 4th & 26 at BUF 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:54BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 27, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:25OHIO 4th & 4 at BUF 11, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−8.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:16BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 37, down 27
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:50OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 34, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:56BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:54BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 12, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:57OHIO 4th & 2 at BUF 2, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−3.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:20BUF 4th & 8 at OHIO 39, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:08OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:12OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:57OHIO Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:54BUF Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:18OHIO Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:3552% → 53%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
52.0%
Robbie Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 19Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+11
52.1%
Derrius Vick run for 11 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
52.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 31Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+47
52.3%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Chase Cochran for 47 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
52.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
52.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
52.9%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
53.1%
Josiah Yazdani 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0247% → 46%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
53.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
53.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
53.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4953% → 53%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
53.3%
Derrius Vick run for 6 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
53.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
53.6%
Derrius Vick run for no gain to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
53.3%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 44 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for no gain to the Buff 22 Jacob Martinez fumbled, recovered by Ohio Brett LaytonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:0955% → 58%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
54.7%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 9 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+8
54.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 8 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
55.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1744% → 42%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
55.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
56.0%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Ohio 46Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
56.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (John Kling) to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+11
57.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 11 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
58.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2459% → 58%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
58.6%
Derrius Vick run for 7 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 3
OWN 14
-1
58.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 13Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
58.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Aaron BradleySimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
58.2%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 4:0242% → 39%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
58.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 12 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
58.3%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
58.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 5 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
59.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
58.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 9 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
58.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Ohio 18Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-1
60.0%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 19Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
60.9%
Patrick Clarke 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1962% → 78%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
61.7%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 12 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
62.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 2 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+21
62.3%
Derrius Vick run for 21 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
63.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 18 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
64.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
64.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 9 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
65.0%
Vick, Derrius pass incomplete to Reid, Jordan, PENALTY BUFFALO pass interference (Sherry, Witney) 14 yards to the BUFFALO2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1425% → 24%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
74.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+9
75.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
75.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Josh KristoffSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
75.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 53 yds, downed at the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1478% → 78%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
77.5%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 4 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
77.7%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 4 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
78.0%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+16
77.5%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 37 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for 16 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4825% → 24%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
74.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to John Dunmore for 6 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
74.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
75.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
76.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:4380% → 81%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
79.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
80.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
79.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
79.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+26
80.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 26 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
82.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 26 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
82.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-9
82.8%
Derrius Vick sacked by Tedroy Lynch and Kendall Roberson for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 19
OPP 31
-7
80.0%
Derrius Vick run for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 26
OPP 38
0
80.8%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
80.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4818% → 17%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
81.8%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
82.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
82.7%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-10
82.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 17 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Buff Tyler GrassmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2983% → 92%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
83.2%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (Mason Morgan) to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+7
82.8%
Derrius Vick run for 7 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+4
83.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
84.5%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Landon Smith, broken up by Jake StockmanSimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
92.4%
Josiah Yazdani 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.9%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 9 Anthone Taylor fumbled, recovered by Ohio Ian Wells , return for 9 yds to the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:1293% → 98%
Q3 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.3%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.4%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.4%
Derrius Vick run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:192% → 2%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
98.3%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+4
98.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+6
98.4%
Tyler Grassman punt for 41 yds , Daz'mond Patterson returns for 6 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1099% → 99%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.7%
Tim Edmond run for 5 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
98.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 34Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Chase CochranSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
98.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 13 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
98.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
98.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Ian WellsSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+2
99.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
99.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
99.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 14 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
99.4%
Derrius Vick sacked by Okezie Alozie for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 19 Derrius Vick fumbled, forced by Okezie Alozie, recovered by Buff Kendall Roberson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:321% → 5%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+2
99.3%
Joe Licata run for 2 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+12
94.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 12 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 5:4396% → 98%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.9%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Troy MangenSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
96.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 13 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
96.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 48Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
96.5%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Kawmae SawyerSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+13
96.5%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Kawmae Sawyer for 13 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
96.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
97.5%
Derrius Vick run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+9
97.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 9 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.7%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+14
98.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 14 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
98.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.3%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Jordan Reid, broken up by Witney SherrySimilar
Q4 12:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
98.4%
Josiah Yazdani 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24INT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:372% → 1%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
98.4%
Joe Licata sacked by Ian Wells for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
98.5%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+11
98.6%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Jovon Johnson return for 11 yds to the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25TD
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:2299% → 100%
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
98.9%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
98.9%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.0%
Derrius Vick run for 1 yd to the Buff 4 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (Tedroy Lynch) to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.0%
Derrius Vick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26INT
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:490% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
99.9%
Tony Daniel run for 13 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+13
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 13 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Tony Daniel run for 2 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Devin Campbell for 11 yds to the Ohio 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 8 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+16
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass intercepted Toran Davis return for 16 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.9%
Tim Edmond run for 6 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Tim Edmond run for 9 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Tim Edmond run for 5 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+38
100.0%
JD Sprague pass complete to Aaron Bradley for 38 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+75
99.7%
Tim Edmond run for a loss of 2 yards Tim Edmond fumbled, recovered by Buff Boise Ross , return for 75 yds, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:12
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
+12.5
FG · Q3 12:25
Josiah Yazdani 28 yd FG GOOD
+7.9
TD · Q3 11:57
Derrius Vick run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com