2014 · Week 11 · Nov 4, 2014 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 9:29: Taylor Royster 0 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:54: James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:00: Andre Givens run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24 — BGSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:07: Jawon Chisholm run for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +14.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:38: Andre Givens run for 46 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 13BGSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
- Q1 13:38BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 25, tiedClose callPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it38.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:34AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q1 10:07BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.7%−0.311% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q1 7:35AKR 4th & 3 at BGSU 33, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snapGo for it62.1%53% to convertField goalTheir call61.9%−0.249% to makePunt61.7%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:58BGSU 4th & 11 at AKR 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.4%−0.422% to convertField goalTheir call38.8%86% to makePunt37.0%−1.8average punt
- Q1 2:22AKR 4th & 3 at BGSU 47, down 3Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it60.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:01BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.8%average punt
- Q2 14:54AKR 4th & 4 at BGSU 24, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snapGo for it60.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call59.8%−0.268% to makePunt57.1%−2.8average punt
- Q2 13:41BGSU 4th & 16 at BGSU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it38.2%−1.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%average punt
- Q2 13:09AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it60.0%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q2 8:21BGSU 4th & 8 at AKR 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snapGo for it40.7%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call40.9%62% to makePunt38.0%−2.9average punt
- Q2 5:41AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 43, down 3Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snapGo for it56.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:45BGSU 4th & 2 at AKR 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.8%57% to convertField goal43.4%−2.427% to makePunt44.2%−1.6average punt
- Q2 2:41AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 47, down 3Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it54.3%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:36BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 8, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it39.2%−4.421% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.6%average punt
- Q3 14:09AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it51.2%−1.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.8%average punt
- Q3 11:53BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snapGo for it44.7%−2.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.5%average punt
- Q3 10:21AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snapGo for it50.4%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.1%average punt
- Q3 9:29BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it50.2%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.6%average punt
- Q3 2:28AKR 4th & 10 at BGSU 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snapGo for it16.9%−1.528% to convertField goalTheir call18.4%70% to makePunt9.9%−8.5average punt
- Q3 1:18BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 26, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snapGo for it87.7%−1.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%average punt
- Q4 14:10AKR 4th & 2 at BGSU 43, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.9%57% to convertField goal10.2%−3.728% to makePunt11.4%−2.6average punt
- Q4 11:10BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 48, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.0%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.2%average punt
- Q4 6:24BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it84.2%−2.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.4%average punt
- Q4 5:35AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.8%−2.2average punt
- Q4 1:06AKR 4th & 25 at BGSU 32, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−0.27% to convertField goal2.3%51% to makePunt2.0%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q3 9:29BGSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.0%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:54BGSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.1%97% to makeGo for two81.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:07AKR Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.3%97% to makeGo for two15.8%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 2:38BGSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0735% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5665% → 64%
Q1 11:34
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
64.3%
Zach Paul punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3DOWNS8 plays · 31 yds · 1:1836% → 36%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
64.3%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 23 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
63.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 2 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-9
64.1%
James Knapke sacked by TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the AKRON 43 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (James Knapke) to the BwGrn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4MISSED FG9 plays · 33 yds · 2:2564% → 64%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
64.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 8 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
64.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 15 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
64.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Keith Sconiers for 9 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5FG11 plays · 54 yds · 3:3737% → 38%
Q1 7:06
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
63.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
50
+23
62.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 23 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
62.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 16 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+5
62.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 5 yds Ronnie Moore fumbled, forced by Jatavis Brown, recovered by BwGrnSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
62.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Fred Coppet for no gain to the Akron 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3662% → 62%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
61.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 13 yds L.T. Smith fumbled, forced by Jude Adjei-Barimah, recovered by Akron for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2139% → 38%
Q1 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-1
62.0%
James Knapke sacked by Jerome Lane for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8FG6 plays · 40 yds · 1:0061% → 64%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
61.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 34 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1339% → 37%
AKRDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2563% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 23 yds · 1:0839% → 40%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
61.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 12 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
59.7%
Chris Pohlman run for 3 yds to the Akron 43 Chris Pohlman fumbled, forced by Jatavis Brown, recovered by Akron Cody GriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12INT7 plays · 40 yds · 1:2264% → 65%
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
64.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 11 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
65.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 12 yds to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
65.2%
Kyle Pohl pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13FG9 plays · 45 yds · 2:0939% → 43%
Q2 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+12
59.7%
AKRON Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
58.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 9 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
57.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 2 yds to the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3458% → 57%
Q2 7:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
56.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 6 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
57.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 7 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
56.8%
Zach Paul punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 44 yds · 1:5644% → 46%
Q2 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+16
55.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 16 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0455% → 51%
Q2 2:41
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
51.2%
Zach Paul punt for 43 yds , Ryan Burbrink returns for no gain to the BwGrn 10 Ryan Burbrink fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by BwGrn Herve CobySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0546% → 45%
Q2 0:36
4TH & 12
OWN 8
+1
54.6%
Joe Davidson punt for 57 yds , Imani Davis returns for 1 yd to the Akron 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18END OF HALF4 plays · 21 yds · 0:1751% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4656% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0649% → 45%
AKRDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2053% → 51%
BGSUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3450% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD1 play · -7 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24INT3 plays · 10 yds · 0:1536% → 36%
BGSUDrive 25TD13 plays · 62 yds · 3:5165% → 84%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
33.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 7 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q3 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
29.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Alex Huettel) to the Akron 5Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26MISSED FG12 plays · 52 yds · 2:1919% → 19%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
19.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 11 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+12
18.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 12 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
20.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 11 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
20.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 9 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4288% → 88%
Q3 1:18
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
12.4%
Joe Davidson punt for 49 yds , Imani Davis returns for no gain to the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 28FUMBLE8 plays · 29 yds · 2:2216% → 12%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Keith Sconiers for 11 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
16.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
15.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Conor Hundley for 8 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+6
13.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 6 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-9
12.4%
Kyle Pohl run for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 46 Kyle Pohl fumbled, forced by Bryan Thomas, recovered by BwGrn Taylor RoysterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:4691% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 30TD8 plays · 84 yds · 1:528% → 22%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
8.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 16 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
8.2%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 9 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
50
+15
7.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
8.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 20 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 31PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 2:3583% → 86%
Q4 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
16.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 5 yds to the BwGrn 35 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 32INT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1614% → 14%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
13.9%
Kyle Pohl sacked by Kendall Montgomery for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+11
11.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 11 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
13.7%
Kyle Pohl pass intercepted Clint Stephens return for no gain to the BwGrn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 33TD8 plays · 86 yds · 2:1588% → 98%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+27
11.8%
Andre Givens run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
8.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 4 yds to the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:29
Taylor Royster 0 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Tate Kick)
-15.6
TD · Q4 9:07
Jawon Chisholm run for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q3 4:54
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-11.9