Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 35 at Toledo 42

TOL
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Glass Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+37.0Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:46: Kareem Hunt run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +11.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:57: Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 36 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Blake Frohnapfel pass to Rodney Mills GOOD) — MASS win probability +30.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:15: Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 6 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +20.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:57: Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 76 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +35.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:34: Terry Swanson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +28.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 1 at TOL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:01MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53MASS 4th & 4 at TOL 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:03MASS 4th & 9 at TOL 23, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:08TOL 4th & 3 at MASS 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−2.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:16MASS 4th & 15 at TOL 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−7.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:16TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−3.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 5 at MASS 47, up 8
    Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:46MASS 4th & 5 at TOL 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−2.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:57TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−10.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:39MASS 4th & 1 at TOL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.2%−8.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:39MASS 4th & 14 at TOL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 6:34MASS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:04TOL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:05MASS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:26TOL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:08TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:46TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:57MASS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:15TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−1.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:57MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:34TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:2813% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+33
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 33 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-15
87.0%
Abrokwah, S. rush for loss of 1 yard to the TOLEDO49 (JONES, Orion;SYLVESTRE, J.), PENALTY UMASS personal foul (Wilkinson, E.) 15 yards to the UMASS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 37
+7
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+18
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 18 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
87.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, broken up by Jordan HadenSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
87.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
87.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+11
87.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 11 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
84.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 15 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, (NA) declined, (Logan Laurent MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
84.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
84.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-5
84.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
84.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5816% → 19%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
84.1%
Bernard Davis pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+20
84.1%
Marken Michel run for 20 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
84.0%
Marken Michel run for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 35 Marken Michel fumbled, forced by Delando Johnson, recovered by UMass Blake FrohnapfelSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 17
OPP 35
0
84.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken Michel, broken up by Chris DukesSimilar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+35
80.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 35 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3082% → 82%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
81.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 27 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+8
81.9%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
82.0%
HUNT, Kareem rush for no gain to the TOLEDO35 (Colton, J.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (MYERS, Jeff) 10 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-4
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 24
OWN 21
+14
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 14 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+16
81.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 16 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
82.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-5
82.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Kareem Hunt) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 11
50
0
82.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 11
50
+8
82.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+15
82.1%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
82.6%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the UMass 22Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+8
82.6%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
82.1%
Terry Swanson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0320% → 20%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 8 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
80.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 8 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
79.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-7
80.0%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 16
OWN 35
-13
80.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 37 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 13 yards to the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
79.8%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Khary Bailey-Smith return for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:4822% → 28%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
78.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 6 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
78.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for no gain to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+9
79.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 9 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
71.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 15 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
16 plays · 94 yds · 6:3174% → 73%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
73.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
73.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
73.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
73.6%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to OLACK, Justin for 3 yards to the TOLEDO29 (Porter, J.), PENALTY UMASS offside defense (Messiah, K.) 5 yards to the TOLEDO31, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.9%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
73.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 10 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
74.2%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
74.3%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+4
74.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 4 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
74.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 8 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+25
74.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 25 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
75.4%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the UMass 16Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
67.4%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the UMass 14Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
73.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 14 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:2330% → 33%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
70.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 23 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
68.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+18
67.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 18 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
67.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-5
67.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
68.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shadrach AbrokwahSimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 9
OPP 23
0
66.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:3369% → 70%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
69.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
69.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Trey Dudley-Giles) to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
71.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Dwight MaconSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
71.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+5
67.7%
WOODSIDE, Logan sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TOLEDO49 (Holines, S.), PENALTY UMASS offside defense 5 yards to the UMASS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+6
68.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
69.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+23
69.9%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Trey Dudley-Giles return for 23 yds to the UMass 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
63.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:4766% → 77%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
65.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+15
66.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 15 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
67.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
68.0%
Logan Woodside run for 6 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
67.9%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
68.8%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
68.9%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
68.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+42
77.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 42 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 3:5224% → 25%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
75.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Matt Tuleja for 10 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
75.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 8 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
73.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 8 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
73.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
73.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 15 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
72.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 9 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+3
71.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
71.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
72.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
73.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shadrach Abrokwah, broken up by Trent VossSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 21
-5
75.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (NA) to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
75.2%
Logan Laurent 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
75.0%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
74.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-7
73.5%
Logan Woodside sacked by Peter Angeh and Kassan Messiah for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
72.8%
Nick Ellis punt for 41 yds, downed at the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Ray BushSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+24
72.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Chaz Whittaker return for 24 yds to the UMass 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:4377% → 89%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
77.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
89.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
85.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Jean Sifrin) to the UMass 15Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
85.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
85.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+15
86.4%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Sifrin, J., PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (COLEMAN, Jaylen) 15 yards to the UMASS30, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
85.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 6 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
83.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Bernard Davis, broken up by Chris DukesSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Brian McDonald punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 3:5388% → 88%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
87.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+6
88.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
89.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-1
89.2%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
88.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+5
87.7%
ELLIS, Nick punt 36 yards to the UMASS16, fair catch by Davis, B., PENALTY UMASS substitution infraction 5 yards to the UMASS47, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
89.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (NA) to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
88.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 10 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
89.2%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 8
50
+3
89.1%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
89.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
88.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 31 yds, downed at the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 2:4913% → 44%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
87.2%
Marken Michel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
87.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 12 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
87.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 12 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
86.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
50
+9
84.6%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 9 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-4
84.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
85.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Chaz WhittakerSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+9
86.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
55.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 36 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Blake Frohnapfel pass to Rodney Mills GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4265% → 91%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
67.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
66.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
68.8%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
69.9%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+19
70.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 19 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
71.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
71.2%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the UMass 18Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+9
69.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 9 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
71.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
71.2%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the UMass 6Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 6 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
54.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 76 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0061% → 56%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
58.3%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to RUSSELL, Alonzo for 12 yards to the TOLEDO39 (Porter, J.), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
58.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
56.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bernard Davis at the UMass 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0050% → 45%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
49.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
50.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
52.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 9 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
51.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
47.9%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Sharpe, T., PENALTY TOLEDO holding (MARTIN, Jordan) 10 yards to the TOLEDO36, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
47.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 1 yd to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-5
46.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Jean Sifrin) to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
50.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 14
OPP 40
0
52.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete, broken up by Ray BushSimilar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
55.5%
Brian McDonald punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:4858% → 97%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
58.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
59.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin Olack, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
57.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
59.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+36
61.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 36 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
66.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+19
97.2%
Terry Swanson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:209% → 10%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken Michel, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
91.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 23 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
90.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Trevon Mathis return for 13 yds to the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:57
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 76 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
-35.7
TD · Q4 11:57
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 36 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Blake Frohnapfel pass to Rodney Mills GOOD)
-30.6
TD · Q4 0:34
Terry Swanson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
+28.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com