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CMU

Central Michigan 20 at Buffalo 14

BUF
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:13 · Tyler Grassman punt for 45 yds , Amari Coleman returns for no gain to the CMich 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior−2.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:49: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 28 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +10.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:43: Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 6 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +15.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:08: Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 7 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey MISSED) — CMU win probability +22.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:53: Saylor Lavallii run for 1 yd to the CMich 36 — CMU win probability +10.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28: Saylor Lavallii run for 2 yds to the Buff 39 — CMU win probability +16.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 9 at BUF 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01BUF 4th & 5 at CMU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01CMU 4th & 16 at BUF 24, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:35BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 34, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:26BUF 4th & 1 at CMU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:16CMU 4th & 23 at CMU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:37CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:13BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:00CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 38, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00CMU 4th & 3 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−2.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:08BUF 4th & 13 at CMU 35, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:53CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:53BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.2%−4.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:53CMU 4th & 1 at BUF 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:36CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:35CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:49BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:43BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2456% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
43.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 24 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
43.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+18
43.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 18 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
43.9%
Cooper Rush run for no gain to the Buff 28 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by CMich Cooper Rush , return for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+4
43.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-2
43.9%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+22
43.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 22 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.9%
Saylor Lavallii run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 3:2944% → 43%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
43.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
43.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
43.4%
[PSTL], PENALTY CMU offside (PALMER, Louis) 5 yards to the UB38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
43.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
43.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
43.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
43.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Leterrius Walton for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46 Joe Licata fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+5
43.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 5 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
43.6%
[PSTL], PENALTY CMU offside (WALLER, Tyree) 5 yards to the CMU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
43.9%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
42.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
42.3%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
42.0%
Martez Walker run for 5 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
42.0%
Anthony Garland run for 3 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
41.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
42.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 6 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+30
41.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 30 yds Ben McCord fumbled, forced by Jake Stockman, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
41.2%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+15
41.2%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, C. (ROSS, Boise), PENALTY UB pass interference (ROSS, Boise) 15 yards to the UB18, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
41.1%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
41.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-10
41.3%
Cooper Rush sacked by Okezie Alozie for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 16
OPP 24
-10
42.3%
Cooper Rush sacked by Okezie Alozie and Lee Skinner for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4041% → 41%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
41.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 11 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
42.2%
[PSTL], TAYLOR, Anthone rush for 4 yards to the UB49 (HAMILTON, Tim), PENALTY UB personal foul (SILAS, Jake) 15 yards to the UB30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 30
-3
40.8%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 28
OWN 27
+12
40.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 12 yds to the Buff 39 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 39
0
40.5%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Josh Cox return for no gain to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:1561% → 70%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
39.0%
Saylor Lavallii run for 2 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
39.1%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+12
39.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 12 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
38.8%
Saylor Lavallii run for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+18
38.6%
Saylor Lavallii run for 18 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
38.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+16
38.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 16 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
30.4%
Saylor Lavallii run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
31.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
32.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Tyler Grassman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
29.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+2
30.1%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+29
30.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 29 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
28.9%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+6
28.8%
Martez Walker run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
28.9%
Cooper Rush sacked by Adam Redden for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 33 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by Buff Adam Redden , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:3729% → 41%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
29.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 8 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-1
30.4%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
29.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.5%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
30.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 5
50
+11
30.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 11 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
30.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
30.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
30.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
30.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
41.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 28 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · -13 yds · 0:2768% → 64%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
31.9%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to LAVALLII, S., PENALTY CMU holding (AHMETI, Ramadan) 10 yards to the CMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
34.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 20
OWN 34
-5
34.8%
[SGUN], PENALTY CMU delay of game (RUSH, Cooper) 5 yards to the CMU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 25
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Ben McCord, broken up by Jake StockmanSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 25
OWN 29
+2
35.5%
Saylor Lavallii run for 2 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 23
OWN 31
0
36.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
36.6%
Devin Campbell run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
37.9%
Joe Licata run for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
37.7%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass complete to McGILL, Marcus for 4 yards to the UB46, out-of-bounds (WILSON, Jason), PENALTY CMU offside (SERPA, Blake) 5 yards to the UB47, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
38.7%
Joe Licata run for 10 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
39.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
39.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+33
38.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 33 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:0641% → 56%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
41.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Joe Ostman) to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
41.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 6 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
47.9%
Saylor Lavallii run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 15Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
48.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mike KinvilleSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+10
49.6%
[PSTL], RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to KROLL, Jesse, dropped pass, PENALTY UB holding (ROSS, Boise) 10 yards to the CMU25, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.9%
Martez Walker run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
47.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Courtney Williams, broken up by Kristjan SokoliSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
49.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Jarrett Franklin for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
50.5%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
51.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Brandon GreerSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
51.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 7 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-2
51.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
49.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 45 yds , Amari Coleman returns for no gain to the CMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
48.7%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
49.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 9 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
46.6%
Saylor Lavallii run for no gain to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
48.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 48 yds, downed at the Buff 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
52.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
52.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
50.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by Josh CoxSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
50.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
46.1%
Martez Walker run for 9 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
45.1%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
45.5%
Cooper Rush sacked by Adam Redden for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 18
OWN 49
0
48.0%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Witney Sherry return for no gain to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0054% → 59%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
53.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 10 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
56.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+24
55.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 24 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
59.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
59.1%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Brandon Greer return for no gain to the CMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
17 plays · 98 yds · 9:2950% → 79%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
50.4%
Saylor Lavallii run for 2 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
50.8%
Saylor Lavallii run for 3 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+16
52.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 16 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
49.7%
Saylor Lavallii run for 9 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+1
47.4%
Saylor Lavallii run for 1 yd to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+28
48.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 28 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
45.2%
Saylor Lavallii run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
44.9%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 0
0
45.2%
WALKER, Martez rush for 7 yards to the UB25 (SHERRY, Witney;CRAWFORD, B.), PENALTY CMU holding off-setting, PENALTY UB personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
45.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse Kroll, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+10
48.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 10 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
43.3%
Martez Walker run for 9 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
43.3%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
45.1%
Martez Walker run for 1 yd to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
43.3%
Martez Walker run for 5 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
43.3%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
21.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 7 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
31.6%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+34
29.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 34 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.3%
Ron Willoughby pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-3
39.2%
Joe Licata sacked by Louis Palmer for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
33.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
29.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Jason WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
19.0%
Saylor Lavallii run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
18.5%
Saylor Lavallii run for 10 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+3
17.4%
Saylor Lavallii run for 3 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
17.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
20.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
25.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+10
26.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 10 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
26.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
29.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
27.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Jason WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
24.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Jason WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:3592% → 96%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
8.3%
Saylor Lavallii run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+7
4.8%
Saylor Lavallii run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
4.6%
Saylor Lavallii run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
5.2%
Saylor Lavallii run for 2 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:08
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 7 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey MISSED)
-22
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28
Saylor Lavallii run for 2 yds to the Buff 39
-16.2
TD · Q3 13:43
Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 6 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)
+15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com