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EMU

Eastern Michigan 14 at Massachusetts 36

MASS
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Gillette Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:36 · Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+23.8Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:20: Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 32 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:31: Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +5.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:32: Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Bronson Hill for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +6.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. TD · Q2 5:25: Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +9.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:00: Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent MISSED) — MASS win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 7EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 7 at EMU 24, tied
    Close callWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:36MASS 4th & 14 at EMU 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:50MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28EMU 4th & 22 at EMU 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:46EMU 4th & 7 at MASS 35, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:09MASS 4th & 10 at EMU 31, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 43, down 16
    Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:45MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 37, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:43EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 19, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:00EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 32, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:00EMU 4th & 2 at MASS 37, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 11 at EMU 36, up 22
    Close callWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:51EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 21, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:54EMU 4th & 9 at MASS 24, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:25EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 8, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:25MASS 4th & 1 at EMU 45, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:48MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:20EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:31MASS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:32EMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:25MASS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:1279% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 23 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 19 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for 3 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
78.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 5 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+6
78.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 6 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
78.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Jean Sifrin) to the EMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+1
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Lorenzo Woodley for 1 yd to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+7
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for 7 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+7
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 17 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2821% → 24%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.8%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 10 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
78.7%
Ryan Brumfield run for 2 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
78.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 15 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
78.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 7 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
78.5%
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
78.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 8 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
78.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
75.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 32 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3DOWNS
19 plays · 44 yds · 3:4477% → 75%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
76.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 14 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
77.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
77.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Andrew Libby, broken up by Mike StealsSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+10
76.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, PENALTY EMU holding (ZAPPONE, Anthony) 10 yards to the UMASS49, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
77.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
77.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-5
77.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (NA) to the UMass 47Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+15
76.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 15 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Andrew LibbySimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
77.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 1 yd to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-5
77.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Jean Sifrin) to the EMich 42Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+15
76.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 15 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
77.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 7 yds to the EMich 20Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
77.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Jason BeckSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-10
76.4%
Jalen Williams rush for no gain to the EMU20 (PACE, DaQuan), PENALTY UMASS holding (Brandon Howard) 10 yards to the EMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 13
OPP 30
-1
75.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 14
OPP 31
0
75.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
74.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass intercepted Khary Bailey-Smith return for 16 yds to the EMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:1577% → 79%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
76.6%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 7 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
76.6%
Lorenzo Woodley run for no gain to the EMich 16Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
78.6%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 16 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2523% → 23%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.3%
Ryan Brumfield run for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
77.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 8 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
76.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 6 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-2
76.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
77.1%
Owen Dubiel punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
78.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Great IbeSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
77.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
77.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
77.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
76.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-7
76.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Jovan Santos-Knox and Daniel Maynes for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 35Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-5
77.5%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Darien Terrell) to the EMich 30Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 22
OWN 30
0
77.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Kris Strange, broken up by Jackson PorterSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
77.7%
Owen Dubiel punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4578% → 85%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
77.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 21 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 18 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
79.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Tyrell Smith) to the EMich 46Similar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+2
78.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+42
78.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 42 yds to the EMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.5%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:5918% → 25%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
82.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Darien Terrell) to the EMich 18Similar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+47
82.3%
Darius Jackson run for 47 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
80.5%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Campbell Allison) to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+3
81.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+3
81.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+34
74.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Bronson Hill for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0778% → 85%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 11 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
78.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 18 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
79.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+13
79.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 13 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
79.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 14 yds to the EMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
79.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 10 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for no gain to the EMich 4Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3916% → 17%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
83.6%
Darius Jackson run for 8 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+29
83.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to David Gibson for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+4
82.2%
Bronson Hill run for 4 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+8
82.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 8 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
82.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Darien Terrell) to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+4
82.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 4 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
82.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 4 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
82.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Tyreese Russell, broken up by Iric HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
83.4%
Dylan Mulder 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Robert Kitching TEAM return for no gain to the UMass 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 1:4686% → 89%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shakur Nesmith, broken up by Kevin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
86.2%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 7 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
85.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 4 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, broken up by Anthony ZapponeSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
85.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+12
85.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 12 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
86.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
85.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+17
84.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 17 yds to the EMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
86.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Jason BeckSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+31
88.6%
Logan Laurent 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
86.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyler Allen for 5 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Darius JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
86.8%
Owen Dubiel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
88.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
88.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+13
87.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 13 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for 1 yd to the UMass 37Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
88.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Willie CreearSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
87.4%
Brian McDonald punt for 41 yds, downed at the EMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
87.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Trey Seals and Sha-Ki Holines for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 20Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+5
88.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 5 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-6
88.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Sha-Ki Holines for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 19Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+1
88.6%
Owen Dubiel punt for 40 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:5791% → 97%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
90.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 8 yards to the 50 yardline (HARRIS, Jeremiah), PENALTY UMASS holding (Josh Bruns) 10 yards to the UMASS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+4
90.2%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 4 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+15
90.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, PENALTY EMU pass interference (ZAPPONE, Anthony) 15 yards to the EMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+12
90.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 12 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
90.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete (HARRIS, Jeremiah), PENALTY EMU personal foul (IBE,GREAT) 15 yards to the EMU22, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
90.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
90.8%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+11
90.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the EMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
90.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 4 yds to the EMich 4Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
96.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 19 Reginald Bell Jr. fumbled, recovered by EMich Reginald Bell Jr.Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
96.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to David GibsonSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+13
96.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 13 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+7
96.5%
Tyreese Russell run for 7 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
96.5%
Ryan Brumfield run for 16 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
96.5%
Darius Jackson run for 9 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
96.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 36Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-1
96.4%
Ryan Brumfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 37Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-3
96.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:5398% → 98%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+19
98.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Pat O'Connor) to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
98.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 18
OPP 43
0
98.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for no gain to the EMich 43Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+7
98.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+23
98.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 23 yds Jean Sifrin fumbled, forced by Kevin Johnson, recovered by EMich Willie CreearSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
98.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 6 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-5
98.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Kris Strange) to the EMich 14Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+7
98.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 7 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
98.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan Brumfield, broken up by Khary Bailey-SmithSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
98.5%
Owen Dubiel punt for 62 yds, downed at the UMass 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
98.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
98.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Willie Creear return for no gain to the UMass 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
98.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+3
98.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
98.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to David GibsonSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 9
OPP 24
0
98.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Dustin Creel, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23FUMBLE
14 plays · 65 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
98.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 1 yd to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+12
98.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, PENALTY EMU pass interference (JOHNSON, Kevin) 12 yards to the UMASS39, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
99.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
98.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 8 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 8 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+2
99.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 9 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-2
99.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+6
98.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
99.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, substitution infraction (NA) to the EMich 28Similar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+15
99.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 15 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 5 yds to the EMich 11 Lorenzo Woodley fumbled, forced by Amos Houston, recovered by EMich Pudge CottonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Bronson HillSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
99.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Kris Strange, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-3
99.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Vondell Langston and Robert Kitching for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 8Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 13
OWN 8
0
99.5%
Owen Dubiel punt for 61 yds, downed at the UMass 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+16
99.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 16 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.7%
Jordan Broadnax run for 2 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
99.7%
Jordan Broadnax run for 3 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
99.7%
Jordan Broadnax run for 4 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+18
99.8%
Jordan Broadnax run for 18 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:25
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q2 8:32
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Bronson Hill for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q3 7:00
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent MISSED)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com