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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:48 · Zach Paul punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Josiah Yazdani 38 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +4.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:25: Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 13 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +10.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:48: JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 3 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +18.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:16: Robert Stein 38 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +7.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:55: Josiah Yazdani 22 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +24.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 11AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 9:42AKR 4th & 6 at OHIO 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.5%40% to convertField goal57.5%−<0.149% to makePunt57.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:49OHIO 4th & 12 at AKR 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snapGo for it42.9%−0.223% to convertField goal42.8%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call43.0%average punt
- Q1 3:22AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snapGo for it54.2%−1.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q1 2:12OHIO 4th & 3 at AKR 40, tiedClose callPunted · 45.5% before the snapGo for it45.6%52% to convertField goal45.0%−0.634% to makePuntTheir call45.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:18AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it54.1%−0.924% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 46, tiedClose callPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it46.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%−0.7average punt
- Q2 13:33AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it53.2%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.6%average punt
- Q2 12:41OHIO 4th & 1 at AKR 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.3%71% to convertField goal46.3%−0.956% to makePunt45.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 6:59OHIO 4th & 6 at AKR 25, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snapGo for it48.7%39% to convertField goalTheir call48.7%−<0.166% to makePunt44.2%−4.6average punt
- Q2 4:50AKR 4th & 2 at OHIO 23, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snapGo for it49.7%57% to convertField goalTheir call48.7%−1.070% to makePunt43.2%−6.4average punt
- Q2 3:18OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 37, tiedClose callPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it49.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:52AKR 4th & 3 at OHIO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.3%52% to convertField goal55.2%−0.158% to makePunt50.4%−4.9average punt
- Q3 15:00AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snapGo for it43.5%−1.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q3 5:48AKR 4th & 17 at OHIO 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it39.9%−3.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q3 2:54OHIO 4th & 18 at OHIO 13, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snapGo for it53.2%−6.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q4 13:16AKR 4th & 7 at OHIO 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snapGo for it37.1%−1.635% to convertField goalTheir call38.8%74% to makePunt27.5%−11.3average punt
- Q4 13:16OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it49.5%−3.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%average punt
- Q4 10:36AKR 4th & 5 at OHIO 33, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 51.2% before the snapGo for it50.2%42% to convertField goal48.2%−2.049% to makePuntTheir call45.8%−4.4average punt
- Q4 8:31OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it47.7%−6.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.7%average punt
- Q4 7:34AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it45.5%−3.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q4 5:59OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it50.0%−4.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.1%average punt
- Q4 1:55OHIO 4th & 6 at AKR 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snapGo for it52.4%−1.331% to convertField goalTheir call53.7%91% to makePunt22.0%−31.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:10OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.3%97% to makeGo for two42.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:48AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.4%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:25AKR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.9%97% to makeGo for two58.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:48OHIO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.0%97% to makeGo for two57.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1TD5 plays · 66 yds · 1:5035% → 36%
AKRDrive 2TD10 plays · 63 yds · 3:2264% → 64%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
35.7%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Anthony Ritossa for 3 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
36.1%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Josh KristoffSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+18
36.0%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 18 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
35.9%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 21 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
35.9%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for no gain to the Ohio 10Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
35.7%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Conor Hundley for 10 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4INT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
OHIODrive 5PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 7:49
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+10
37.1%
JD Sprague run for 25 yds to the OHIO 42 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, personal foul (NA) to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+10
37.5%
JD Sprague pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 10 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-15
38.1%
SPRAGUE, JD slant pass complete to REID, Jordan for 5 yards to the AKRON33, PENALTY OHIO personal foul 15 yards to the OHIO47, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-13
38.7%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to L.T. Smith AKRON Penalty, illegal procedure (NA) to the Akron 13Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+6
39.5%
Zach Paul punt for 40 yds , Daz'mond Patterson returns for 6 yds to the Akron 47 Daz'mond Patterson fumbled, forced by Nick Rossi,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
40.7%
JD Sprague pass complete to Troy Mangen for 7 yds to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 1:18
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+9
40.0%
Zach Paul punt for 46 yds , Daz'mond Patterson returns for 9 yds to the Ohio 20 OHIO Penalty, personal foul (NA) to the Ohio 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2341% → 41%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
40.7%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
OHIODrive 11FG11 plays · 25 yds · 5:4243% → 47%
AKRDrive 12FG10 plays · 51 yds · 2:0955% → 61%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
45.5%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Chad MooreSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
45.8%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Tyler Williams for 11 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
42.9%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 17 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
42.0%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Jawon Chisholm, broken up by Quentin PolingSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+5
43.2%
WOODSON, Tommy sideline pass incomplete to SMITH, L.T., PENALTY OHIO offside 5 yards to the OHIO23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
42.7%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Anthony Ritossa, broken up by Josh KristoffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3245% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 53 yds · 2:1858% → 59%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
41.8%
Tommy Woodson run for 6 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (NA) to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
40.4%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 11 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
39.8%
WOODSON, Tommy sideline pass incomplete to WOLF, Austin (BASS, Devin), PENALTY OHIO pass interference 15 yards to the OHIO36, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15FG10 plays · 48 yds · 0:4948% → 55%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
49.4%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 23 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
52.0%
JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 7 yds to the Akron 28 AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
49.2%
AKRON Penalty, substitution infraction (NA) to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
49.7%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 6 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-10
48.9%
WOODSON, Tommy rush scramble for 4 yards to the AKRON31 (MOORE, Chad), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+15
52.1%
Zach Paul punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 46 , Daz'mond Patterson returns for 15 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
AKRDrive 18TD8 plays · 84 yds · 2:5748% → 64%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
51.7%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 5 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+8
51.6%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to L.T. Smith for 8 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
51.3%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 36 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
46.4%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lewis for 8 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
46.4%
Tommy Woodson sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 13Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
35.7%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 13 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19TD12 plays · 87 yds · 2:3739% → 62%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 5
OWN 18
+16
39.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 19 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (NA) to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
39.7%
SPRAGUE, JD pass incomplete to SMITH, Sebastia, PENALTY AKRON roughing passer 15 yards to the OHIO49, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+11
43.2%
JD Sprague pass complete to Chase Cochran for 11 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+18
43.3%
JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 18 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
45.5%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Jordan Reid, broken up by Justin MarchSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.8%
JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 3 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 5:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+27
53.9%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 27 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
50.2%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Andrew Pratt, broken up by Devin BassSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
50.3%
Tommy Woodson sacked by Tarell Basham for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 13
OPP 43
-4
53.3%
Tommy Woodson sacked by Tarell Basham and Cameron McLeod for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
AKRDrive 22FG6 plays · 27 yds · 1:4946% → 53%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+18
53.5%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 18 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+4
52.5%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 4 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
53.8%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to L.T. Smith, broken up by Antwan CrutcherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
52.0%
JD Sprague pass complete to Landon Smith for 8 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+8
50.1%
JD Sprague pass complete to Landon Smith for 8 yds to the Ohio 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
52.1%
JD Sprague pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 2 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
50.1%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Troy Mangen, broken up by Johnny RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+21
46.1%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 21 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
43.4%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 4 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
43.9%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to L.T. Smith, broken up by Ian WellsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
52.9%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Jordan Reid OHIO Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (NA) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+25
52.7%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 25 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+6
49.9%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 36 yds , Imani Davis returns for 6 yds to the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 49%
OHIODrive 27PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
54.7%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Sebastian Smith, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 28FUMBLE2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
46.1%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 6 yds Andrew Pratt fumbled, forced by Devin Bass, recovered by Ohio Jovon Johnson , return for 24 yds to the Akron 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 29FG9 plays · 39 yds · 1:4364% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 30INT5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0022% → 29%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
78.5%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to L.T. Smith for 14 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
76.5%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 9 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
50
0
71.5%
Tommy Woodson pass intercepted Josh Kristoff return for no gain to the Ohio 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:55
Josiah Yazdani 22 yd FG GOOD
+24.6
TD · Q3 5:48
JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 3 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
+18.7
TD · Q3 8:25
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 13 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
-10.8