2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:55 · Zach Paul punt for 39 yds , David Frazier returns for 11 yds to the MiaOh 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:44: Jawon Chisholm run for 10 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +5.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:42: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 18 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson MISSED) — M-OH win probability +5.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:23: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +5.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 7:31: Cody Grice run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +9.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:01: Jawon Chisholm run for 10 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 17 at AKR 30, tiedClose callWent for it · 18.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.0%−0.114% to convertField goal18.1%56% to makePunt18.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:35M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 31, tiedClose callPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it20.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:56AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it78.6%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.7%average punt
- Q1 1:10AKR 4th & 4 at M-OH 11, up 2Close callKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call78.6%−0.187% to makePunt77.4%−1.3average punt
- Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 27 at M-OH 8, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it19.1%−1.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q2 3:08AKR 4th & 24 at M-OH 29, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snapGo for it77.1%−1.67% to convertField goalTheir call78.7%58% to makePunt75.6%−3.1average punt
- Q3 14:55AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 42, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snapGo for it71.6%−2.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.1%average punt
- Q3 7:24M-OH 4th & 21 at M-OH 28, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it12.3%−3.48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q3 5:14AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 35, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snapGo for it82.2%−3.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.2%average punt
- Q3 4:50M-OH 4th & 30 at AKR 40, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it12.4%−2.47% to convertField goal14.4%−0.434% to makePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 43, up 9Close callPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%−0.8average punt
- Q4 12:23AKR 4th & 6 at M-OH 34, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.3%40% to convertField goal86.7%−0.647% to makePunt85.9%−1.4average punt
- Q4 8:06M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 49, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 11:44AKR Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:23M-OH Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.6%97% to makeGo for two26.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:31AKR Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:01AKR Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%−0.397% to makeGo for two97.5%45% to convert
- Q4 3:08M-OH Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.8%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 39 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
82.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 20 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+15
82.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 15 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
82.1%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Justin March for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 30
0
82.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 30
-6
82.1%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Jerome Lane for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FUMBLE9 plays · 47 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
80.8%
POHL, Kyle pass incomplete to SMITH, L.T., PENALTY MU pass interference 10 yards to the AKRON46, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
81.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 9 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
81.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Conor Hundley for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+10
81.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Conor Hundley for 10 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
81.2%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 5 yds Fransohn Bickley fumbled, forced by Lo Wood, recovered by MiaOh Jarrell Jones , return for 5 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
79.7%
Christian Koch punt for 34 yds , Imani Davis returns for 2 yds to the Akron 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
79.1%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Jarrell JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5SF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:1221% → 20%
AKRDrive 6FG10 plays · 36 yds · 2:2980% → 80%
Q1 3:39
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
80.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Imani Davis for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -17 yds · 1:0420% → 19%
Q1 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-11
80.4%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Nordly Capi for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-9
80.8%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 27
OWN 8
0
81.3%
Christian Koch punt for 39 yds , Imani Davis returns for no gain to the MiaOh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8TD6 plays · 47 yds · 2:2880% → 86%
M-OHDrive 9TD9 plays · 84 yds · 2:5716% → 21%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+31
84.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 31 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
83.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 12 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
84.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 14 yds to the Akron 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+18
79.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 18 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10FG16 plays · 53 yds · 5:2981% → 83%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
81.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Imani Davis for 11 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
82.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 6 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+17
82.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Imani Davis for 17 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
83.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 5 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-14
82.8%
Kyle Pohl sacked by Joe Donlan for a loss of 14 yards to the MiaOh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4516% → 25%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
83.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 20 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
82.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 18 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Martel DurantSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
77.0%
Kyle Pohl sacked by Bryson Albright for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+15
75.0%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 15 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-15
77.1%
HUNDLEY, Conor rush for no gain to the MU48 (CLIFTON, Tre), PENALTY AKRON illegal block 15 yards to the AKRON37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 22
OWN 35
+7
73.6%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Conor Hundley for 7 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 15
OWN 42
+11
73.2%
Zach Paul punt for 39 yds , David Frazier returns for 11 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14FUMBLE1 play · 2 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
72.5%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 32 Spencer McInnis fumbled, forced by Nmesoma Okafor, recovered by Akron Cody GriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15TD9 plays · 32 yds · 4:0077% → 88%
Q3 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
76.8%
WOODSON, Tommy pass incomplete to ALLEN, Jeff, PENALTY MU pass interference 4 yards to the MU2, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
84.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 13 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
84.2%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Justin March for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 38 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-15
84.2%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass complete to MURPHY, Jared for 8 yards to the AKRON49 (DURANT, Martel), PENALTY MU pass interference 15 yards to the MU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 21
OWN 28
0
86.0%
Christian Koch punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
M-OHDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
85.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 10 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
84.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 23 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
83.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 13 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-15
84.0%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass complete to MARTIN, Sam for 19 yards to the AKRON1 (FORD, Bre';SCOTT, DeAndre), PENALTY MU pass interference 15 yards to the AKRON35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 25
OPP 35
0
85.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5687% → 88%
Q3 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+11
87.6%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 11 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
87.6%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to L.T. Smith for 4 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
88.4%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett, broken up by J'Terius JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+7
87.5%
Zach Paul punt for 51 yds , David Frazier returns for 7 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20INT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
86.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 8 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+7
86.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 7 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
86.0%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Cody Grice for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-3
86.7%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Nordly Capi for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+64
87.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted for a 1ST down Bre' Ford return for 25 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, sideline interference (39 Yards) to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22FUMBLE2 plays · 46 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
87.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 10 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
86.5%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Nmesoma Okafor for a loss of 17 yards to the MiaOh 35 Andrew Hendrix fumbled, recovered by Akron C.J. Mizell , return for 0 yards AKRON Penalty, personal foul (45 Yards) to the MiaOh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23FUMBLE6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
90.3%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Tyler Williams for 11 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
90.5%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 3 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+10
89.5%
WOODSON, Tommy pass incomplete, PENALTY MU holding 10 yards to the MU14, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
90.5%
Conor Hundley run for 7 yds Conor Hundley fumbled, forced by J'Terius Jones, recovered by MiaOh Jarrell JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
90.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
89.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 13 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
88.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 5 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
88.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Martel DurantSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
89.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25TD3 plays · 49 yds · 1:1593% → 98%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
93.4%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lewis for 13 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26TD7 plays · 91 yds · 1:482% → 7%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
97.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 12 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
97.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 4 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+25
97.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
50
+43
97.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 43 yds to the Akron 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.7%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass incomplete to FRAZIER, David, PENALTY AKRON holding 4 yards to the AKRON3, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.5%
David Frazier 3 Yd pass from Andrew Hendrix (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27END OF GAME8 plays · 8 yds · 0:5095% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:31
Cody Grice run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q2 11:44
Jawon Chisholm run for 10 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q2 8:42
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 18 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson MISSED)
-5.3