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CMU

Central Michigan 34 at Northern Illinois 17

NIU
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · Ron Coluzzi punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense−46.1Pregame prior+0.6Score differential−22.7Garbage-time factor−11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:05: Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +14.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:59: Brian Eavey 25 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +9.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:20: Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +17.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:43: Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK) — NIU win probability +16.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:35: Brian Eavey 23 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +7.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 8
  1. Q1 8:33NIU 4th & 3 at CMU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:46NIU 4th & 22 at NIU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 7 at NIU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:05NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:07CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:00NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−2.0
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:59CMU 4th & 3 at NIU 8, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%−1.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−12.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:53NIU 4th & 3 at CMU 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.3%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:41NIU 4th & 7 at CMU 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−10.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:29CMU 4th & 4 at NIU 33, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%−1.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:35CMU 4th & 1 at NIU 5, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%−3.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:31NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:50CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:34NIU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:15NIU 4th & 4 at CMU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:13CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 40, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:29NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:33CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:46CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:05CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:20CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:43NIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:3178% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+32
78.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 32 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
78.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
78.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
78.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 9 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+20
78.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 20 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 4:5222% → 24%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
78.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mike Kinville for 11 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
78.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 8 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
78.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 16 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
78.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 21 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
78.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Saylor Lavallii for 10 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
78.1%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 16Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
78.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Deon ButlerSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+11
78.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 11 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
76.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
77.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
76.7%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
76.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
77.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
77.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+3
77.0%
Aregeros Turner run for 3 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
76.7%
Tyler Wedel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Saylor Lavallii at the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 4:1824% → 31%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
75.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 9Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+39
75.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 39 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
75.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 9 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+5
75.0%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
75.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 3 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
74.8%
Mark Chapman run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+18
75.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 18 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
68.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-21
70.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+5
69.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 22
OWN 13
-2
69.5%
Tyler Wedel punt for 43 yds , Saylor Lavallii returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0932% → 32%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
67.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 7 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
67.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
67.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
67.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus Davis, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
68.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
67.9%
Da'Ron Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
67.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+7
67.4%
Akeem Daniels run for 7 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
68.1%
Akeem Daniels run for 7 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+8
68.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 8 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Akeem Daniels for no gain to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
68.5%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
68.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
67.3%
Tyler Wedel punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1835% → 51%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
64.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 10 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
64.0%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
64.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus Davis, broken up by Sean FolliardSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+16
65.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 16 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
63.7%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
63.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+15
64.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 15 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+16
63.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 16 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
63.5%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
49.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
51.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 4 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-3
51.4%
Tyler Wedel punt for 48 yds , Mark Chapman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 30 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (Dennis Nalor) to the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1651% → 52%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
49.0%
Thomas Rawls run for 13 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
48.7%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
48.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+2
49.3%
Cooper Rush run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
46.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Luke Eakes for 8 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
47.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
47.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
48.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Dennis NalorSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
47.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+53
46.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 53 yds , Mark Chapman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3557% → 58%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
43.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 7 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+2
43.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 14
-2
44.0%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 12Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
41.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
41.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:5659% → 71%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
41.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 22 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
39.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 12 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
39.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+29
39.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 29 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
38.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 4 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
38.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
39.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse Kroll, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
29.4%
Brian Eavey 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0031% → 34%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
31.4%
Cameron Stingily run for 6 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+20
31.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 20 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
33.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 4 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
33.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete, broken up by Blake SerpaSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+3
33.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 3
OPP 49
-3
33.6%
Cameron Stingily run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
25.2%
Titus Davis run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
25.2%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+35
25.4%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Michael Santacaterina return for 35 yds to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0130% → 31%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
30.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 10 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Devon Spalding) to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
30.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
30.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the CMich 7Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
29.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Brandon GreerSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
31.4%
Tyler Wedel 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1774% → 94%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
25.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 9 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
25.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
25.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 12 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
23.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+42
24.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 27 yds to the NORTHERNIL 29 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Rasheen Lemon) to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
23.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
23.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mike KinvilleSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
5.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:329% → 28%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+49
9.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 49 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
10.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Kavon Frazier) to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
27.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:0980% → 83%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+46
20.5%
Thomas Rawls run for 46 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
18.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
18.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
18.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mike Kinville for 4 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+50
17.5%
Brian Eavey 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
19.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
21.3%
Drew Hare pass intercepted Tony Annese return for no gain to the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 4:2584% → 92%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
16.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 11 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
15.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+26
15.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 26 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
14.6%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Marlon Moore) to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
14.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
14.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
14.6%
Martez Walker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 5Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+23
7.6%
Brian Eavey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
7.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
7.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
7.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Dennis NalorSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
7.5%
Tyler Wedel punt for 47 yds, downed at the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
6.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
6.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
6.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
7.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 19 yds, downed at the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25MISSED FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:197% → 4%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
6.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Joel BouagnonSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
6.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-1
7.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 3
50
+5
7.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 5 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
7.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
7.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+15
7.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 15 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
8.0%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
8.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
7.7%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
3.8%
Tyler Wedel 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0297% → 98%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
3.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 9 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
3.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
3.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-1
2.9%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
3.0%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
1.7%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:382% → 1%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
1.8%
Drew Hare run for 11 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
1.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 12 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
1.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 9 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
1.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Josh CoxSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+7
0.9%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
0.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 10 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
1.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Chad Beebe, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:20
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-17.3
TD · Q3 2:43
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q2 6:05
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com