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BUF

Buffalo 27 at Eastern Michigan 37

EMU
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:50 · Joe Licata pass intercepted Jason Beck return for 3 yds to the EMich 40 BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 178Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense+22.0Score differential+6.2Garbage-time factor+6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:21: Reginald Bell Jr. run for 71 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder BLOCKED) — EMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 3:00: Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +19.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:38: Reginald Bell Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +18.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:16: Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to David Gibson for 23 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +10.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:52: Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 50 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +5.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:29BUF 4th & 8 at EMU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:28EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:24BUF 4th & 7 at EMU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:16EMU 4th & 4 at BUF 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:27BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56EMU 4th & 4 at BUF 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:22BUF 4th & 22 at EMU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−3.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−8.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:15EMU 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−12.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:49BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 11, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−3.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:12BUF 4th & 4 at EMU 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−11.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:56BUF 4th & 9 at EMU 9, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:54EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:50BUF 4th & 3 at EMU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−1.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:53BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:00EMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:38EMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:16EMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:52BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:25EMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:44BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3183% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
17.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
17.1%
Joe Licata run for 14 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
17.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+2
17.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Kendall Patterson for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+14
17.1%
Joe Licata run for 14 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
17.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 32 yds to the EMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
17.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
17.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
18.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
19.2%
Patrick Clarke 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 2:3719% → 21%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
19.3%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Ryan Brumfield for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 17Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+7
19.3%
Tyler Allen run for 7 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
19.2%
Ryan Brumfield run for 8 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
19.4%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
19.3%
Ryan Brumfield run for 2 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+8
19.3%
Rob Bolden run for 8 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
19.6%
Ryan Brumfield run for 4 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
21.4%
Ryan Brumfield run for 5 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-1
21.3%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 2
50
-4
21.1%
BOLDEN, Rob rush for 11 yards to the UB39 (ROSS, Boise), PENALTY EMU personal foul 4 yards to the EMU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
20.8%
Owen Dubiel punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
21.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
21.1%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
21.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
21.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, downed at the EMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
22.3%
Rob Bolden run for 3 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
22.4%
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
22.2%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+38
22.0%
Owen Dubiel punt for 38 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1477% → 81%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
22.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 49 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
21.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
19.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 24 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
20.7%
Rob Bolden sacked by Kyril Threats for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 27Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+6
20.5%
Bronson Hill run for 6 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
20.4%
Rob Bolden run for 3 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
20.4%
Owen Dubiel punt for 62 yds, downed at the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
13 plays · 91 yds · 6:3079% → 79%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
21.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 1
OWN 11
0
20.7%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+41
21.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 41 yds to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
20.0%
Devin Campbell run for 8 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+8
19.9%
Devin Campbell run for 8 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
19.8%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete, QB hurry by BROWN, Mike, PENALTY UB holding (KLING, John) 10 yards to the EMU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+6
20.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 6 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+24
20.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 13 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Willie Creear) to the EMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
19.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 11 yds to the EMich 1 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.8%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the EMich 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
19.8%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
19.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Pat O'Connor for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 7Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
21.0%
Patrick Clarke 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
20.6%
Ryan Brumfield run for 4 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
20.9%
Rob Bolden run for 11 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
21.3%
Ryan Brumfield run for no gain to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
21.2%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Ryan Brumfield for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
21.2%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete to Tyler AllenSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
20.6%
Owen Dubiel punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
20.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
20.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
20.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
19.9%
Joe Licata run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
19.8%
Devin Campbell run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
20.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
20.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, downed at the EMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:1921% → 24%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
20.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Darius Jackson for no gain to the EMich 26Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
20.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 4 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
20.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kris Strange for 8 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
21.1%
Darius Jackson run for 33 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
22.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
22.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+20
22.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Cole Gardner for 20 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
23.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
21.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Darius JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler Allen, broken up by Adam ReddenSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
23.5%
Dylan Mulder 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:4479% → 81%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
21.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
20.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-5
21.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+20
22.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 20 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
20.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
20.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 6 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+9
19.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 9 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST down lat. to Anthone Taylor for 2 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST down lat. to Joe Licata for a loss of 9 yards to the EMich 32 for a 1ST down to Jacob Martinez for 13 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3923% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.7%
Ryan Brumfield run for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
32.7%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 71 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
11 plays · 20 yds · 2:5972% → 71%
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
27.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Kendall Patterson for 11 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
27.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
27.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+14
28.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds to the EMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
27.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
27.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the EMich 10Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 9
OPP 10
-10
30.3%
LICATA, Joe pass complete to MARTINEZ, Jacob for 10 yards to the EMU0, clock 11:46, PENALTY UB holding (SILAS, Jake) 10 yards to the EMU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 19
OPP 20
-3
31.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 23 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 22
OPP 23
+40
29.5%
Patrick Clarke 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 65 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
31.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for 3 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
32.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 9 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
33.1%
Ryan Brumfield run for 7 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
34.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
34.2%
Ryan Brumfield run for 9 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
36.3%
Ryan Brumfield run for 5 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+24
36.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to David Gibson for 24 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
36.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.3%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
32.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
31.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+7
31.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+2
32.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
31.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaleel Canty at the EMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:1236% → 59%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
36.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 49 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Darien Terrell) to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 19
OWN 39
+20
33.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 20 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
36.8%
Tyler Allen run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
36.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+20
36.8%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Dustin Creel for 20 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
39.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 13 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.7%
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-8
52.4%
Joe Licata sacked by Mike Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+15
54.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 15 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-6
53.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 41 yds , Jaleel Canty returns for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 25 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, IB (DaQuan Pace) to the EMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
54.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 10 Reginald Bell Jr. fumbled, recovered by Buff Lee SkinnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
47.2%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 13Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
47.4%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Kevin Johnson return for no gain to the EMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1755% → 52%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
54.5%
Ryan Brumfield run for 3 yds to the EMich 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
54.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Cole GardnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
52.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler AllenSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+10
52.0%
Owen Dubiel punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 28 , Jacob Martinez returns for 10 yds to the EMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2850% → 44%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
49.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
49.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the EMich 22Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
51.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
55.8%
Patrick Clarke 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Willie Creear return to the 50 yard line Willie Creear return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3466% → 85%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
50
+4
65.5%
Ryan Brumfield run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
65.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
66.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kenny Jones for 29 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
84.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1485% → 95%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
84.6%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Cole Gardner, broken up by Lee SkinnerSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
95.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to David Gibson for 23 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 2:127% → 6%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
93.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 30 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 5 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+25
93.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 25 yds to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.4%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete, broken up by Pat O'ConnorSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
93.2%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron, PENALTY EMU pass interference (CREEAR, Willie) 8 yards to the EMU2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
93.4%
Devin Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 3Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
93.4%
Devin Campbell run for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 9Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3296% → 98%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
96.2%
Darius Jackson run for 3 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
96.2%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMich 13Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
96.2%
Darius Jackson run for no gain to the EMich 13Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
97.6%
Owen Dubiel punt for 49 yds, downed at the Buff 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:024% → 6%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
96.5%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to HUGHES, Devon, QB hurry by STEALS, Mike, PENALTY EMU pass interference (CREEAR, Willie) 14 yards to the EMU47, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
96.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 4 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-4
96.2%
Joe Licata sacked by Pat O'Connor for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Joe Licata fumbled, recovered by Buff Jake Silas , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 13
50
+50
93.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 50 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28INT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
50
-10
92.7%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WEISER, Matt, QB hurry by BROWN, Mike, PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the UB40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+7
94.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 7 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+3
93.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
50
+7
93.2%
Joe Licata run for 7 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+3
93.5%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Jason Beck return for 3 yds to the EMich 40 BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 29TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:5795% → 99%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
94.5%
Ryan Brumfield run for 2 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+72
98.8%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 72 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
98.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 30TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:411% → 5%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.2%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
99.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 20 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+33
99.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 33 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+16
99.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 16 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 4 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:00
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q4 11:38
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
+18.5
TD · Q4 11:16
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to David Gibson for 23 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com