Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 41 at Miami (OH) 42

M-OH
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Yager Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:20 · Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Brandon Howard for 10 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense−27.9Pregame prior+3.4Score differential−12.4Garbage-time factor−7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:00: Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +15.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:46: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — MASS win probability +19.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:33: Jared Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +14.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:16: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 16 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +20.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 2:58: Andrew Hendrix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +39.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:59M-OH 4th & 1 at MASS 49, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.8%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:59M-OH 4th & 1 at MASS 1, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−7.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:14MASS 4th & 6 at M-OH 27, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:55MASS 4th & 4 at M-OH 49, up 20
    Close callPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:07M-OH 4th & 3 at MASS 3, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:32MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 12, up 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:20MASS 4th & 2 at M-OH 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.4%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 1 at M-OH 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−3.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:33MASS 4th & 22 at M-OH 29, up 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.1 ptsWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%−4.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:37M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 48, down 13
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19M-OH 4th & 5 at MASS 38, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−2.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:13MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 20, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:31MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:55MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:15M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:01MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:42M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:50MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:00MASS Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:46M-OH Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:33M-OH Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:16M-OH Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:58M-OH Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
63.4%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
63.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+11
63.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
63.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 8 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
63.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-4
63.4%
Jared Murphy run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
63.4%
Christian Koch punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:0237% → 39%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
63.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
63.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-5
63.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (N/A) to the UMass 26Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+17
63.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
63.1%
Marken Michel run for 6 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-5
63.1%
Frohnapfel, B. pass complete to Abrokwah, S. for 13 yards to the MU38, out-of-bounds (JONES, Jarrell), PENALTY UMASS illegal formation 5 yards to the UMASS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
63.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 4 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+33
63.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 33 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
63.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 1 yd to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
60.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
61.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 9 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+7
61.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 7 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
61.4%
MIAMI OH Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 15
OWN 39
-3
61.3%
Rokeem Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 18
OWN 36
-5
61.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 23
OWN 31
+9
60.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
60.9%
Christian Koch punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:0041% → 48%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
59.5%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Bryson Albright for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 27Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+11
59.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 11 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
59.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
59.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+32
59.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 17 yds to the MIAMIOH 41 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Bryson Albright) to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
58.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
58.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 1 yd to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+15
59.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
58.8%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
58.8%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
53.4%
Andrew Hendrix run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
54.1%
Fred McRae run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
54.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+4
53.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 4 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
53.9%
Christian Koch punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6FUMBLE
10 plays · 68 yds · 1:0449% → 51%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
51.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+11
51.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
51.0%
Marken Michel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
51.1%
J.T. Blyden run for 5 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+21
50.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 21 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
49.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 12 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
49.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to J.T. Blyden for 13 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
49.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 9 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
-3
49.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to J.T. Blyden for a loss of 3 yards J.T. Blyden fumbled, forced by Tre Clifton, recovered by MiaOh Heath HardingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 0:3450% → 58%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+61
49.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 61 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
52.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
51.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+30
57.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 30 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:1950% → 59%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
49.5%
Andrew Hendrix run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
50.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 20 yds to the MIAMIOH 33 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
51.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 28 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Alex WelchSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 5 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:4945% → 57%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
54.8%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+12
54.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 12 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
53.6%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+45
53.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 45 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
53.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Quinten RollinsSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:3757% → 48%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+7
42.7%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (8 Yards) to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 71 yds · 0:0045% → 48%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
45.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 14 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
46.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
45.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+6
46.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 6 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
46.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Randall Jette) to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
47.8%
Spencer McInnis run for 5 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
47.8%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass complete to FRAZIER, David for loss of 1 yard to the UMASS20 (Robinson, J.), PENALTY UMASS roughing passer 10 yards to the UMASS9, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
49.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 3 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
49.1%
Andrew Hendrix run for 5 yds to the UMass 1Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Stanley AndreSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 3:1748% → 81%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
52.1%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Sharpe, T., PENALTY MU pass interference (TAYLOR, M.) 15 yards to the UMASS16, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
49.9%
Marken Michel run for 15 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
49.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+11
48.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
47.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+13
46.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 13 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
47.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+2
47.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+21
35.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 21 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:1047% → 32%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
46.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Zeke EdmondsSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+16
44.4%
Andrew Hendrix run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
48.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 6 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
48.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 5 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
49.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
47.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
51.2%
Andrew Hendrix run for 11 yds to the UMass 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
31.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0474% → 74%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
26.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the UMass 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
22.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 11 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
21.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 1 yd to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
21.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 5 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
22.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
23.5%
Brian McDonald punt for 25 yds, fair catch by David Frazier at the MiaOh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18DOWNS
17 plays · 73 yds · 0:0025% → 30%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
25.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
24.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+10
24.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 10 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
25.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+18
25.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 18 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
28.0%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
28.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Spencer McInnisSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+10
27.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 10 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
28.7%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Daniel Maynes for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+14
28.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 14 yds to the UMass 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
28.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 8 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
28.9%
Andrew Hendrix run for 1 yd to the UMass 8 Andrew Hendrix fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Andrew Hendrix for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
30.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 3 yds to the UMass 5Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
30.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
30.1%
Andrew Hendrix run for 2 yds to the UMass 3Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
12.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the UMass 5Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+3
12.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 3 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+4
12.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 4 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+3
12.3%
Brian McDonald punt for 33 yds , David Frazier returns for 3 yds to the UMass 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:4110% → 29%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
9.8%
Rokeem Williams run for 7 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+19
10.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 19 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
10.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+13
10.8%
Andrew Hendrix run for 13 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
14.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Jovan Santos-KnoxSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.1%
Jared Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21DOWNS
19 plays · 37 yds · 4:5382% → 86%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
18.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 11 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
17.1%
Elgin Long run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
17.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Quinten RollinsSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+10
18.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 10 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+10
17.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Brandon Howard for 10 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
15.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
15.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
15.6%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+1
17.1%
Marken Michel run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
15.2%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+5
15.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 5 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
11.3%
Abrokwah, S. rush up middle for 17 yards to the MU0, clock 12:33, PENALTY UMASS holding (Boland, M.) 10 yards to the MU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 20
OPP 27
0
11.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 20
OPP 27
+3
11.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 3 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 17
OPP 24
0
12.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 17
OPP 24
-5
13.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 22
OPP 29
0
13.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
19.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+19
18.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 19 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
20.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
19.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
19.0%
Christian Koch punt for 32 yds, downed at the UMass 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0089% → 90%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
10.6%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 17 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
10.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 4 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+9
9.8%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
50
+1
9.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
9.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Marshall TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+13
9.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Marshall Taylor return for 13 yds to the UMass 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0915% → 40%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
15.0%
Andrew Hendrix run for 8 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+9
16.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
18.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
18.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 11 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
19.0%
Andrew Hendrix run for 5 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
39.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 16 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0079% → 81%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Alex Kenney for 6 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
20.6%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 7 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
19.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 6 yds to the UMass 45 Shadrach Abrokwah fumbled, forced by Tre Clifton, recovered by MiaOh Jarrell JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:5234% → 77%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
33.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 21 yds to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
37.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 13 yds to the UMass 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
37.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Ryan Smith for 10 yds to the UMass 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.5%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the UMass 1Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.5%
Andrew Hendrix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27INT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shadrach AbrokwahSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.4%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete, PENALTY MU holding (WOOD, Lo) 10 yards to the UMASS35, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
61.6%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete, PENALTY UMASS holding (Sparks, M.) 10 yards to the UMASS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete, broken up by Mwanza WamulumbaSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 20
OWN 25
0
64.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Heath Harding return for no gain to the UMass 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0075% → 79%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
74.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
75.9%
Andrew Hendrix run for 3 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+1
75.0%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the UMass 38Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
78.9%
Christian Koch punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 78 yds · 0:0031% → 45%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
69.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete, broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
71.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+11
72.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 11 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
68.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+12
70.6%
Frohnapfel, B. pass intercepted by KERN, Kent at the UMASS43, KERN, Kent return to the UMASS43, PENALTY MU pass interference (ROLLINS, Q.) 12 yards to the UMASS43, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
63.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 25 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
55.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+26
55.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 26 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
55.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 4 yds to the MiaOh 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+45
TD · Q4 2:58
Andrew Hendrix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
+39.1
TD · Q4 6:16
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 16 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
+20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com