2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:47 · Tommy Woodson run for no gain to the EMich 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 10:14: Bronson Hill run for 4 yds to the Akron 22 — EMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:01: Tommy Woodson run for 5 yds to the EMich 13 — AKR win probability +2.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:00: Conor Hundley run for 28 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +6.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:23: Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Kyle Pohl pass complete to Anthony Ritossa for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 9EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 3 at EMU 42, tiedClose callPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.0%52% to convertField goal90.9%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call91.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:23AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 37, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.8%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q1 6:47EMU 4th & 11 at EMU 28, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.9%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.1%average punt
- Q2 15:00EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 37, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.0%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q2 12:11AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 44, up 1Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snapGo for it85.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:14EMU 4th & 7 at AKR 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call15.9%70% to makePunt13.6%−2.4average punt
- Q2 8:14AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 28, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snapGo for it82.9%−1.012% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.9%average punt
- Q2 6:52EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 39, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it15.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q2 4:26AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 35, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.9%average punt
- Q2 0:27AKR 4th & 7 at EMU 15, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.834% to convertField goalTheir call82.1%83% to makePunt78.9%−3.2average punt
- Q3 14:54EMU 4th & 18 at EMU 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it15.5%−1.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q3 11:54EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 49, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.721% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q3 5:14EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 46, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it3.8%−1.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q4 10:36AKR 4th & 6 at EMU 7, up 25Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.5%91% to makePunt98.8%−0.7average punt
- Q4 7:56AKR 4th & 2 at EMU 40, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%57% to convertField goal99.5%−0.234% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:47AKR 4th & 18 at EMU 18, up 25Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%−0.111% to convertField goal99.8%79% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 0:31AKR Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two86.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:00AKR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:23AKR Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55AKR Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
EMUDrive 2TD11 plays · 78 yds · 3:519% → 10%
Q1 12:54
3RD & 8
50
+21
91.4%
Rob Bolden run for 6 yds to the AKRON 44 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
89.8%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Tyler Allen for 18 yds for a TD, (David Gibson failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 1:3490% → 89%
EMUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 6:47
3RD & 20
OWN 19
+9
89.1%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Ryan Brumfield for 9 yds to the EMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5TD10 plays · 91 yds · 3:5287% → 89%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
87.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 7 yds to the Akron 16Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+16
87.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyler Williams for 16 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+31
87.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 31 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+19
88.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 19 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
88.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 5 yds to the EMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:2612% → 12%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-15
87.8%
Rob Bolden sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 15 yards to the EMich 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 9
+25
88.0%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Kris Strange for 25 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+7
87.9%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Darius Jackson for 7 yds to the EMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
87.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 1 yd to the Akron 39 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
87.1%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to L.T. Smith AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+50
86.5%
Zach Paul punt for 32 yds , Jaleel Canty returns for 50 yds to the Akron 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8MISSED FG6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
85.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 13 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-8
85.3%
Kyle Pohl sacked by Pat O'Connor for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+1
84.7%
Zach Paul punt for 54 yds , Jaleel Canty returns for 1 yd to the EMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 6:52
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+30
84.5%
Owen Dubiel punt for 45 yds, downed at the AKRON 16 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Akron 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-10
83.8%
WOODSON, Tommy pass complete to CHISHOLM, Jawon for 5 yards to the AKRON40, PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+10
83.3%
Jawon Chisholm run for 10 yds to the Akron 35 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
AKRDrive 13FG5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3485% → 85%
EMUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
82.8%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Tyler Allen for 4 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-12
82.5%
Rob Bolden sacked by Nordly Capi for a loss of 12 yards to the EMich 20Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 18
OWN 20
0
84.0%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete to Tyreese Russell, broken up by Martel DurantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16TD7 plays · 70 yds · 1:5983% → 91%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.4%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
83.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Austin Wolf for 14 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+15
84.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 15 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
89.3%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 21 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
88.4%
HILL, Bronson rush for 4 yards to the AKRON44 (SCOTT, DeAndre;ROBINSON, J.), PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the AKRON43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 5
OPP 43
-15
88.2%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete to Dustin Creel EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+7
89.7%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Dustin Creel for 7 yds to the EMich 49 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18TD14 plays · 76 yds · 5:0090% → 97%
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
90.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+6
90.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Conor Hundley for 6 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+5
90.1%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
90.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 9 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
90.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 7 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
90.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 4 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
96.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
95.5%
Darius Jackson run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-2
95.8%
Rob Bolden sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 46Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
95.9%
Owen Dubiel punt for 42 yds , C.J. Mizell returns for no gain to the Akron 12 C.J. Mizell fumbled, recovered by Akron C.J. MizellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20TD9 plays · 88 yds · 3:2097% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
96.6%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 5 yds to the Akron 17Similar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
96.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 23 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+28
96.8%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Jawon Chisholm for 28 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.5%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Anthony Ritossa for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21FUMBLE4 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+14
99.2%
BOLDEN, Rob pass incomplete to CANTY, Jaleel, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 14 yards to the EMU34, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.1%
Rob Bolden run for 3 yds to the EMich 37 Rob Bolden fumbled, forced by John Rachal, recovered by Akron Dylan EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22DOWNS9 plays · 33 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 14:08
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+9
99.6%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 9 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.6%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 4 yds to the EMich 7Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Kevin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+3
99.5%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to L.T. Smith for 3 yds to the EMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23FUMBLE13 plays · 84 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+32
99.2%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Darius Jackson for 32 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.1%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Dustin Creel for 11 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.1%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete to Dustin Creel, broken up by Jon ShelbySimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.1%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Tyler Allen for 5 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+8
99.1%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Tyler Allen for 8 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.0%
BOLDEN, Rob pass incomplete to GIBSON, David, PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the AKRON35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+17
99.1%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Tyler Allen for 17 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.0%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete to Kris Strange, broken up by Drew PhillipsSimilar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.1%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Dustin Creel for 6 yds Dustin Creel fumbled, forced by DeAndre Scott, recovered by Akron Devonte MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24DOWNS12 plays · 70 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q4 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-10
99.7%
JONES, D.J. rush for 5 yards to the EMU41 (JOHNSON, Kevin), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+6
99.7%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Nick Bice for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+4
99.7%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Nick Bice for 4 yds to the EMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25INT11 plays · 41 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.5%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Kray'shawn Brewer for 3 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Cole Gardner for 5 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Kray'shawn Brewer for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Kray'shawn Brewer for 2 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+45
99.8%
Rob Bolden pass intercepted Drew Phillips return for 35 yds to the EMich 6 AKRON Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the EMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:00
Conor Hundley run for 28 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q3 5:23
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q4 14:55
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Anthony Ritossa for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+2.6