Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 35 at Bowling Green 36

BGSU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+5.7BGSU 64.7%Tyler Tate 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 28 - HOME 30 · Q3 8:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:07 · Tyler Tate 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+4.1Home team on offense+4.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:50: Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +8.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:02: Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +8.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:24: James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:38: Anthone Taylor run for 12 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +32.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:19: Fred Coppet run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Knapke failed ) — BGSU win probability +45.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 5:36BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:37BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:56BGSU 4th & 13 at BUF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:19BGSU 4th & 4 at BUF 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.3
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:12BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 34, up 1
    Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:07BGSU 4th & 5 at BUF 13, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−9.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:00BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 15, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:31BGSU 4th & 6 at BUF 43, up 2
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−2.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:51BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 24, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:55BUF 4th & 19 at BGSU 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−3.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:36BGSU 4th & 10 at BUF 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−12.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:38BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:04BUF 4th & 2 at BGSU 16, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%−2.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−14.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:11BUF 4th & 8 at BGSU 46, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%
    23% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:36BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:43BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:29BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:52BGSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:50BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:02BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:24BGSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:38BUF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 9:2439% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
60.9%
MARTINEZ, Jacob rush for 7 yards to the UB35, out-of-bounds (ADJEI-BARIMAH), PENALTY BGSU offside defense 5 yards to the UB33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
60.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
60.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 4 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+16
60.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
60.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 6 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
60.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 12 yds to the BwGrn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (1 Yards) to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.9%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.4%
Joe Licata 1 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick), (Patrick Clarke KICK) BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5257% → 62%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.0%
James Knapke run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
56.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for 10 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
57.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Travis GreeneSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
57.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for 20 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
58.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
58.6%
Travis Greene run for 9 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
58.6%
James Knapke run for 4 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+12
58.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 12 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
58.6%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.2%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
59.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-4
59.4%
Devin Campbell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
60.3%
Joe Licata sacked by Bryan Thomas for 0 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 20
-5
60.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
60.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 39 yds, downed at the BwGrn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:2862% → 61%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+43
62.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Teo Redding for 43 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
62.6%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
62.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+5
61.7%
James Knapke run for 5 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 8
OPP 9
-5
61.1%
TATE, Tyler field goal attempt from 27 GOOD, clock 14:15, PENALTY BGSU false start (HUETTEL, Alex) 5 yards to the UB14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+32
61.2%
Tyler Tate 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:2438% → 46%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
61.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
60.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
60.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 23 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
59.8%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to CAMPBELL, Devin, QB hurry by SCHWIETERMAN, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (SUTTON, Brian) 15 yards to the BGSU18, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
59.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
54.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 16 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:3757% → 64%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
57.0%
Fred Coppet run for 16 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Heath JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
58.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+22
57.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 22 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
59.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie Moore, broken up by Witney SherrySimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
59.7%
KNAPKE, James pass incomplete to COBY, Herve, PENALTY UB pass interference 15 yards to the UB17, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
59.7%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+11
59.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 11 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+1
58.8%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
59.7%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.7%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
James Knapke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:5640% → 49%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
60.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+21
60.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 21 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
59.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 25 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
50.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
50.9%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron (JOHNSON, Nick), PENALTY BGSU pass interference (JOHNSON, Nick) 15 yards to the BGSU6, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+37
50.9%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Gabe Martin return for 37 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
55.2%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
56.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-7
55.4%
James Knapke sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 39 James Knapke fumbled, recovered by Buff Nick Gilbo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:4349% → 60%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
51.4%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+15
51.5%
LICATA, Joe pass complete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron for no gain to the BGSU41 (JOHNSON, Nick), PENALTY BGSU unsportsmanlike conduct (JOHNSON, Nick) 15 yards to the BGSU26, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
50.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+10
50.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
50.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.5%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 1:3542% → 43%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
41.6%
KNAPKE, James pass incomplete to BURBRINK, Ryan (ALOZIE, Okezie), PENALTY BGSU illegal formation 5 yards to the BGSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+21
40.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 21 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
43.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
43.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for 13 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
45.2%
James Knapke sacked by Adam Redden for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
43.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Heath JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+13
41.5%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 13 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
43.1%
Tyler Tate 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
38.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:2944% → 61%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
44.0%
Fred Coppet run for 35 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
46.7%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+15
46.5%
KNAPKE, James pass incomplete to LEWIS, Roger (LESTER, Cortney), PENALTY UB pass interference (LESTER, Cortney) 15 yards to the UB9, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
46.7%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
61.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
53.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
53.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+6
54.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 6 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
54.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 44 yds, downed at the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:5755% → 65%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
55.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 20 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
58.3%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
59.4%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
59.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-1
60.7%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
58.9%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
60.7%
KNAPKE, James pass incomplete to POHLMAN, Chris, PENALTY UB pass interference (THREATS, Kyril) 15 yards to the UB18, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
60.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
60.7%
James Knapke run for 5 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
59.0%
James Knapke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
64.7%
Tyler Tate 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
62.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
62.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by Kendall MontgomerySimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
64.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
65.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 32 yds, downed at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
66.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Alex Huettel) to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+9
64.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 9 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
66.6%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
64.1%
Joe Davidson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
62.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
62.4%
Jacob Martinez run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
63.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
64.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 38 yds, downed at the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.8%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
65.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
63.5%
James Knapke pass intercepted Boise Ross return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 37%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
50
+9
57.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
57.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 5 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
57.8%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 13
OPP 39
-7
59.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+6
61.4%
Devin Campbell run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 14
OPP 40
-5
63.2%
GRASSMAN, Tyler punt 35 yards to the BGSU5, downed, PENALTY UB illegal formation 5 yards to the BGSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 19
OPP 45
0
63.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:0864% → 66%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
64.0%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+6
64.8%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
64.5%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
64.4%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+27
62.9%
James Knapke run for 27 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
68.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for 1 yd to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
68.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-5
67.3%
KNAPKE, James pass complete to GREENE, Travis for 38 yards to the UB1 (ALOZIE, Okezie), PENALTY BGSU illegal formation 5 yards to the UB44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+16
64.8%
James Knapke run for 16 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.7%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
69.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 6 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
68.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 4
OPP 22
-6
67.4%
TATE, Tyler field goal attempt from 40 GOOD, clock 12:43, PENALTY BGSU delay of game 6 yards to the UB28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
66.3%
Tyler Tate 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM return for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:5837% → 76%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
62.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 14 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
59.7%
Devin Campbell run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
58.0%
Devin Campbell run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
58.4%
Joe Licata run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
58.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 19 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
57.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 11 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
56.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
23.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 12 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
37.0%
Travis Greene run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.2%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
37.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Travis GreeneSimilar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
35.6%
James Knapke run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
36.0%
Joe Davidson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:2274% → 86%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
26.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 26 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
23.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+8
22.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
22.9%
Devin Campbell run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 13
OPP 40
0
23.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Will WatsonSimilar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+16
24.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
21.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
21.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
13.5%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
13.7%
Patrick Clarke 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:4522% → 74%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
22.3%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 40 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
29.2%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+36
28.3%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 36 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.6%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Knapke failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 40%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
54.6%
Devin Campbell run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
54.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for no gain to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
55.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
60.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Nilijah BallewSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:1678% → 82%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
78.1%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the BOWLGREEN 49 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Witney Sherry) to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
81.3%
Travis Greene run for 16 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
81.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 12
OPP 20
-2
81.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:19
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Knapke failed )
+45.3
TD · Q4 8:38
Anthone Taylor run for 12 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)
-32.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com